Hawkeyecr Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Real or fake Hawkeye? . Real. I’m having to post with a phone and forgot my password. It’s a disaster here. It may be quite awhile before I get power back. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Watch coming for SW MI/IN. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Areas affected...Portions of southern Lower MI into northern/central IN and far northwestern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101928Z - 102100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A substantial severe wind threat will likely increase this afternoon across parts of southern Lower Michigan and into northern/central Indiana with a line of storms moving quickly eastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...A bow echo will continue moving rapidly eastward across northern IL and far southern WI this afternoon while producing widespread damaging winds of 70-100 mph. The airmass across southern Lower MI and northern/central IN continues to destabilize this afternoon, with surface temperatures having warmed into the mid to upper 80s, and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Steeper mid-level lapse rates observed on the 18Z ILX sounding have likely spread over at least the western portions of southwestern MI and western IN. Resultant MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg and around 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear will likely support the maintenance of the severe bow echo as it moved eastward across these areas this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, some 75+ mph, will likely produce numerous to widespread damaging winds, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with circulations embedded within the line. This substantial severe wind risk is expected to increase within the next couple of hours, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued to address this threat. ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/10/2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 One for the ages bros. Feel fortunate to have only lost one tree so far. Immediately slammed with 70mph+ gusts. Then a lull of only 55mph winds, and now have had 60-70mph winds for at least a half hour. Still going. No power. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Really impressed by the reports of the duration of the winds. One thing to get the big gusts through quickly but another to have it last a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hawkeyecr said: Real. I’m having to post with a phone and forgot my password. It’s a disaster here. It may be quite awhile before I get power back. Glad to hear you are safe. Makes my 61mph gust overnight seem like child's play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Sun is back out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Feels like a WWA during a Blizzard, but might get a watch here Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Areas affected...Much of Missouri...far Eastern Kansas...and Southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101938Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few multi-cell clusters should develop this afternoon, with damaging winds/hail possible. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance across parts of the region. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar trends show a variety of convective development processes occurring across the region. 1) An early morning band of severe convection continues to move northeastward into northeast Missouri, where outflow from the ongoing MCS has largely stabilized the atmosphere. These storms may end up merging with the MCS across this area into central Illinois, where MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg resides. 2) A persistent band of elevated convection from northwest Missouri into southeast Kansas is beginning to show signs of rooting into the boundary layer. This uptick in intensity is also evident in visible satellite. This trend appears to pose the greatest short-term threat. 3) Boundary layer cumulus is developing across south-central Missouri amid strong diabatic heating (temperatures in the low 90s F) and rich low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s F). This process has yielded MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg. Given the widespread destabilization that has occurred, and the convective trends noted, convection should become more widespread throughout the afternoon. Despite ample instability, winds aloft are generally weak, with only about 20 kt of effective bulk shear present, with perhaps some enhancement near the MCS in central Illinois. Thus storms should form into a few mutli-cell clusters, posing a threat damaging winds and large hail. Convective trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance this afternoon. ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 36799475 37959571 40179296 40118766 36938868 36609234 36799475 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 243 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT. * AT 243 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKFORD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Not liking this one as it is out there staking 35 miles from my house... The extended winds are very concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Possible tornado near Rockford Quote The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Winnebago County in north central Illinois... Southern Boone County in north central Illinois... * Until 345 PM CDT. * At 243 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Rockford, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A derecho producing significant damaging winds will persist across much of northern Illinois and possibly far southern Wisconsin, and into northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan this evening. ...Northern IL...southeastern WI...northern Indiana...southwestern Lower Michigan... A Derecho will continue east across northern Illinois, at speeds around 60 mph. Many reports of 60-80 mph winds have been recorded along with a few over 100 mph as it moved across Iowa and crossed the MS River, with some areas experiencing long duration of severe winds over 50 kt. The environment remains favorable ahead of the Derecho as temperatures continue to warm. Modified midday soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. This will prove sufficient to maintain a severe wind threat through the Chicago area, including northwest Indiana and parts of Lower Michigan. For more information see mesoscale discussions 1455 and 1456. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Only change from SPC on 20z outlook was to trim the west side of the risk areas where storms have already passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Couplet really ramping up just NE of Rockford. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Looks like the lines did merge, this was keeping the mesovotex from lifting north. Not good for Chicago, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 It's about go time here. FWIW, no real shelf cloud in DeKalb. Too overcast to see if there was one, at least from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, mjwise said: It's about go time here. FWIW, no real shelf cloud in DeKalb. Too overcast to see if there was one, at least from my house. Same here (about 15 miles East of you) looks like low clouds obscuring anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Just hit in DeKalb. Tornado sirens going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Watch until 10 here. Be nice to hear thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Boone County in north central Illinois... * Until 345 PM CDT. * At 255 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Loves Park, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Candlewick Lake and Timberlane around 305 PM CDT. Poplar Grove around 310 PM CDT. Capron around 320 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Caledonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 I don’t have a wx station, so no tangible data to share - I’m in NE Winnebago County and just my obs - the wind hasn’t materialized here. Gusty but garden variety gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, luckyweather said: I don’t have a wx station, so no tangible data to share - I’m in NE Winnebago County and just my obs - the wind hasn’t materialized here. Gusty but garden variety gusty. The wind core is south of you and not really part of the main convective line, it's a bit removed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Never seen anything like this. Still getting 55mph gusts quite frequently. Wind has been blowing from the west-northwest the entire time (over an hour.) 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Front was not much to get excited about here south of DeKalb.Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Had what appeared to be a quick spin up dropping right over sycamore. Never got more than halfway down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 strongest winds on the leading edge are associated with microscale bows and are more isolated. note the stronger/longer duration winds are associated with lighter precip, indicative of the downward motion associated with the descending rear inflow jet (blue areas in velocity on the right-most image). 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Unrelated, but there is a large fire in Franklin Park. The smoke plume shows up on radar over O'Hare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 heading out to meet wisconsinwx. He guaranteed to put me on storms. if he ever gets here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Been watching this elsewhere and that is absolutely an historic derecho for Iowa. Extreme high end gusts (and a lot of them), the duration of damaging winds, it tracking through the most densely populated corridor in the state. Not sure I've ever seen such a duration of 100+ kt returns with any single derecho as I saw with that (from both the DMX and DVN radars). I'd have to imagine some of the reports from outside the bigger cities like Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and Des Moines are going to be frightening. Particularly in the region along US 30 and I-80 between Des Moines and Cedar Rapids (Tama, Marshalltown) and also NW of Des Moines near Madrid. Can't imagine what Iowa State and the UI campuses look like right now, but I'd imagine it's something along the lines of a war zone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 was just gonna ask what that plume was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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