snowlover2 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL...including the Chicago metro Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426... Valid 101836Z - 102030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for widespread and destructive damaging wind gusts of 70-100+ mph and perhaps a tornado or two will continue as a line of storms moves quickly eastward across northern Illinois. This line will likely impact the Chicago metro area around 2000-2030Z (3 to 3:30 PM CDT). DISCUSSION...The bow echo over eastern IA has developed a comma head structure on its northern flank and very large rear-inflow jet, with measured wind gusts of 97 and 112 mph recently reported in the vicinity of Cedar Rapids IA. The 17Z sounding from DVN observed steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. These lapse rates combined with strong heating of a very moist low-level airmass is supporting 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE downstream of the bow. The 25 kt of effective bulk shear also observed on the 17Z sounding is somewhat marginal for storm organization. Regardless, with the bow echo already very well developed/organized, confidence remains high that a swath of widespread, destructive damaging winds of 70-100+ mph will sweep eastward across northern IL and vicinity over the next hour or two. If the current fast eastward motion of the bow (around 60 kt) holds steady, then the widespread damaging wind threat will increase across the Chicago metro area by 2000-2030Z (3 to 3:30 PM CDT). In addition to the substantial straight-line wind threat, some increase in the tornado threat may be developing on the northern flank of the bow, where mid-level rotation has recently been noted. Other cells have also formed ahead of the line across far southern WI and northern IL along a weak warm front, and this convection will pose a threat for isolated large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Sounds like holding firm with the MDT given the wording on that MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 MLI now gusted to 77mph. No additional report from the DVN ASOS. Might have been knocked offline. EDIT: Extremely impressive stacked shelf cloud rolling up quick on west horizon.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: MLI now gusted to 77mph. No additional report from the DVN ASOS. Might have been knocked offline. DVN still gusting 58kts currently. Severe winds are lasting a bit longer than the usual hit and go. There was a report that the severe winds lasted for ~45mins in CID. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 can someone post shelf cloud pics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Just now, forkyfork said: can someone post shelf cloud pics 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 If they don't upgrade to high risk at 20z, I would attribute the reason to the background synoptics not being higher end. But that hardly matters at this point with a well developed/established convective system and good maintenance parameters downstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If they don't upgrade to high risk at 20z, I would attribute the reason to the background synoptics not being higher end. But that hardly matters at this point with a well developed/established convective system and good maintenance parameters downstream. They're also probably more than a little gun-shy due to the string of high-risk busts they've had over the past 6-ish years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: DVN still gusting 58kts currently. Severe winds are lasting a bit longer than the usual hit and go. The was a report that the severe winds lasted at CID for ~45mins. Arguably stronger winds behind the main line, DVN gust to 75kt a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 Given the current 86mph gust at DVN well behind the main line, it’s safe to say the jet is not aloft...it’s at the surface. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 This is Hawkeye in Cedar Rapids. It’s a damn war zone here. I lost my tree, fence, and garden. Trees are trashed everywhere. My neighbor’s 60 ft maple was sheared right off halfway up. We got 50 mph sustained, with gusts to 100, for 30+ minutes. It was unreal. Real or fake Hawkeye?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Don't PDS tornado watches automatically include high risk? Wondered about procedure for PDS severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 video out of CR looks legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: Don't PDS tornado watches automatically include high risk? Wondered about procedure for PDS severe. Other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 Bookend vortex just north of Savanna now, moving ENE. This will likely bring the heart of the jet through the entire Chicago metro. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 New warnings in IL mention 80mph winds lasting for over 30 minutes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Hope hawkeye and cyclone are ok 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Well, 5000J/kg+ SBCAPE and 4000J/kg+ MLCAPE and 35 knots of 0-6km shear IMBY per the 19z mesoanalysis. Chances I escape with power...low and decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 LOT is including wording that winds may last longer than 30 minutes, which seems pretty damn accurate. Quote 80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. The strong winds may last for more than 30 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Everything looks great models seem to be inline. hope this sucker hold together thru michigan 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: MLI now gusted to 77mph. No additional report from the DVN ASOS. Might have been knocked offline. EDIT: Extremely impressive stacked shelf cloud rolling up quick on west horizon.. Phone lines went down and that's usually how we get ASOS obs out. 29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: DVN still gusting 58kts currently. Severe winds are lasting a bit longer than the usual hit and go. There was a report that the severe winds lasted for ~45mins in CID. 50+ knots for 30 minutes and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 awesome, gonna feel like a legit low end tropical hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Phone lines went down and that's usually how we get ASOS obs out. 50+ knots for 30 minutes and counting. Almost need a short fused high wind warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 absolute unit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Almost need a short fused high wind warning Awkward to handle for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Real or fake Hawkeye? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Solidsting said: Everything looks great models seem to be inline. hope this sucker hold together thru michigan It'll probably dive more SE when it crosses Lake Michigan. We'll have better luck with whatever activity pops up in Northern / Central WI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 New tornado warning in south WI. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 226 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Green County in south central Wisconsin... Western Rock County in south central Wisconsin... * Until 315 PM CDT. * At 225 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Monroe, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Janesville, Beloit, Brodhead, Orfordville, Footville, Newark, Magnolia, Hanover, Leyden, Afton, Juda and Avon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 IWX put out a SWS ahead of the watches and warnings. Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 312 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024-MIZ077-078-102200- La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN- Kosciusko-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Berrien-Cass MI- Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend, Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake, Winamac, Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Rochester, Akron, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Syracuse, Mentone, Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash, North Manchester, Niles, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, and Marcellus 312 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 /212 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ ...DESTRUCTIVE LINE OF STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON... A line of storms with a history of producing wind gusts between 70 and 100 mph is tracking through northwest Illinois. This line will move into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan near 5 PM EDT. Secure outdoor items. Ensure you can receive watches and warnings. If a warning is issued, seek shelter in a sturdy building. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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