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August 10 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm
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  Mesoscale Discussion 1455
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IA into southern WI and
   northern IL...including the Chicago metro

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

   Valid 101836Z - 102030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for widespread and destructive damaging wind
   gusts of 70-100+ mph and perhaps a tornado or two will continue as a
   line of storms moves quickly eastward across northern Illinois. This
   line will likely impact the Chicago metro area around 2000-2030Z (3
   to 3:30 PM CDT).

   DISCUSSION...The bow echo over eastern IA has developed a comma head
   structure on its northern flank and very large rear-inflow jet, with
   measured wind gusts of 97 and 112 mph recently reported in the
   vicinity of Cedar Rapids IA. The 17Z sounding from DVN observed
   steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. These lapse rates combined
   with strong heating of a very moist low-level airmass is supporting
   3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE downstream of the bow. The 25 kt of
   effective bulk shear also observed on the 17Z sounding is somewhat
   marginal for storm organization. Regardless, with the bow echo
   already very well developed/organized, confidence remains high that
   a swath of widespread, destructive damaging winds of 70-100+ mph
   will sweep eastward across northern IL and vicinity over the next
   hour or two. If the current fast eastward motion of the bow (around
   60 kt) holds steady, then the widespread damaging wind threat will
   increase across the Chicago metro area by 2000-2030Z (3 to 3:30 PM
   CDT). In addition to the substantial straight-line wind threat, some
   increase in the tornado threat may be developing on the northern
   flank of the bow, where mid-level rotation has recently been noted.
   Other cells have also formed ahead of the line across far southern
   WI and northern IL along a weak warm front, and this convection will
   pose a threat for isolated large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
   tornado or two.

   ..Gleason.. 08/10/2020

 

mcd1455.gif

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

MLI now gusted to 77mph.  No additional report from the DVN ASOS.  Might have been knocked offline.  

DVN still gusting 58kts currently.

Severe winds are lasting a bit longer than the usual hit and go.

There was a report that the severe winds lasted for ~45mins in CID.

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If they don't upgrade to high risk at 20z, I would attribute the reason to the background synoptics not being higher end.  But that hardly matters at this point with a well developed/established convective system and good maintenance parameters downstream.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If they don't upgrade to high risk at 20z, I would attribute the reason to the background synoptics not being higher end.  But that hardly matters at this point with a well developed/established convective system and good maintenance parameters downstream.

They're also probably more than a little gun-shy due to the string of high-risk busts they've had over the past 6-ish years

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

DVN still gusting 58kts currently.

Severe winds are lasting a bit longer than the usual hit and go.

The was a report that the severe winds lasted at CID for ~45mins.

Arguably stronger winds behind the main line, DVN gust to 75kt a few minutes ago. 

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This is Hawkeye in Cedar Rapids.  It’s a damn war zone here.  I lost my tree, fence, and garden.  Trees are trashed everywhere.  My neighbor’s 60 ft maple was sheared right off halfway up.  We got 50 mph sustained, with gusts to 100, for 30+ minutes.  It was unreal.  

Real or fake Hawkeye?


.
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30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

MLI now gusted to 77mph.  No additional report from the DVN ASOS.  Might have been knocked offline.  

EDIT:  Extremely impressive stacked shelf cloud rolling up quick on west horizon..

Phone lines went down and that's usually how we get ASOS obs out.

29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

DVN still gusting 58kts currently.

Severe winds are lasting a bit longer than the usual hit and go.

There was a report that the severe winds lasted for ~45mins in CID.

50+ knots for 30 minutes and counting.

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15 minutes ago, Solidsting said:

Everything looks great models seem to be inline. hope this sucker hold together thru michigan

It'll probably dive more SE when it crosses Lake Michigan.

We'll have better luck with whatever activity pops up in Northern /  Central WI.

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New tornado warning in south WI.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
226 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Green County in south central Wisconsin...
  Western Rock County in south central Wisconsin...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 225 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Monroe, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Janesville, Beloit, Brodhead, Orfordville, Footville, Newark,
  Magnolia, Hanover, Leyden, Afton, Juda and Avon.

 

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IWX put out a SWS ahead of the watches and warnings. 

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Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 312 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024-MIZ077-078-102200- La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN- Kosciusko-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Berrien-Cass MI- Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend, Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake, Winamac, Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Rochester, Akron, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Syracuse, Mentone, Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash, North Manchester, Niles, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, and Marcellus 312 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 /212 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/ ...DESTRUCTIVE LINE OF STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON... A line of storms with a history of producing wind gusts between 70 and 100 mph is tracking through northwest Illinois. This line will move into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan near 5 PM EDT. Secure outdoor items. Ensure you can receive watches and warnings. If a warning is issued, seek shelter in a sturdy building.

 

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