The_Doctor Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Don't see that color on Radarscope too often... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: ****. . doin thangs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1046 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 IAC015-099-125-127-153-169-181-101630- /O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-200810T1630Z/ POLK IA-STORY IA-MARSHALL IA-MARION IA-JASPER IA-BOONE IA-WARREN IA- 1046 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR POLK...STORY...WESTERN MARSHALL...NORTHERN MARION...JASPER... EASTERN BOONE AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES... AT 1045 AM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF BOONE TO SAYLORVILLE LAKE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAN METER, MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DES MOINES, AMES, WEST DES MOINES, ANKENY, URBANDALE, JOHNSTON, CLIVE, NEWTON, ALTOONA, PELLA, NORWALK, PLEASANT HILL, GRIMES, NEVADA, WINDSOR HEIGHTS, CARLISLE, BON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Mod risk incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: While most guidance has been tame for today (Monday), the HRRR and HRRRx develop a fast moving MCS/bow that sweeps across IA/IL/IN this morning into this evening. Digging into things a bit deeper, while the HRRR has been overzealous and alone on an island numerous times this spring and summer, the solution it spits out is actually fairly plausible in this case. The main trough and wave is currently diving into the Northern Plains from Canada, and along with it is a solid jet streak. This can all be seen very nicely on water vapor and IR satellite currently. There’s also a very nice power-keg environment out across portions of SD/NE/MN/IA currently as well, where initial development is expected within the next several hours. 4k+ cape, PWATS of 1.50”+, DP’s in the 70’s, a great EML with ML lapse rates ~9C, 50kts shear and the main wave and jet streak moving in. Should likely see development as the HRRR shows in SD and possibly NE within the next several hours, as capping erodes. The environment mentioned above is supportive of MCS formation, and a damaging wind threat. Now I won’t go as far as saying the derecho the HRRR/HRRRx have is going to occur across IA/IL/IN, but the setup is definitely supportive of something that could be quite good, as long as everything works out. Along the lines of everything working out...One potential caveat is the activity around MSP currently...Does it slowly fade away as it continues to drift east, or does it develop a nice cold pool and drive more SE, which would greatly affect the threat for some downstream areas outlined in this post. . success bump 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 May as well go for a high score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Looking like this one may be thread worthy. Iowa already rocking with multiple wind reports across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, pen_artist said: Mod risk incoming The discussion on that MD was top notch. Saving that one. Very impressive rear-inflow jet already at nearly 100kts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: success bump Yeah that was a great call to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: our office building recently power washed the exterior masonry and now my window is filthy, going to be upset if it ruins the view of a nice shelf later Are your windows facing west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Just now, wisconsinwx said: Are your windows facing west? indeed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Moderate risk pretty much I-80ish to the WI border from IA across IL to IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Moderate risk pretty much I-80ish to the WI border from IA across IL to IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Des Moines just officially gusted to 75mph at DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Some areas of northern IL/far southern WI have jumped from a Marginal risk at 06Z to a Moderate risk at 1630Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Saw something like this coming last night with the steep lapse rates, big CAPE and 50kt jet nosing in. (Tho I saw something like this coming Sunday too and it never did, due to OFBs and poor destabilization). Well this one’s here, it’s not dying any time soon and I’m ready. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Ankeny (KIKV) 78mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 PDS Watch is out. 80-100 MPH gust headline. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Far northwest Indiana Far southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 700 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A derecho will rapidly progress across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this afternoon. Widespread severe wind gusts, some of which should reach 80-100 mph are anticipated along the track of the bow. Brief tornadoes are also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 My brother is without power in Des Moines. Says there’s pretty widespread tree damage in his neighborhood. (Walnut Hill) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Ankeny (KIKV) 78mph. Some sort of moisture boundary sitting there through DVN's CWA (upper 70s south, low to mid 70s north) and heating both sides of it. Some serious potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 SPC throwing out the "D" word. SUMMARY...A derecho will rapidly progress across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Well this got serious quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Probabilities for the watch. Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (90%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (20%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Don't believe I've been in a PDS SVR watch that mentioned the possibility of 100 MPH gusts before. Although, extrapolating radar the action will miss Madison to the south, unless the northern edge of the MCS expands significantly. Not sure what to make of the convective cells moving NW-SE over northeast Iowa, while an E-W oriented band appears to be filling in and moving NORTH around Waterloo. That's going to crash into the SE moving cluster south of Decorah at some point, not sure what the resulting evolution and motion will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Don't believe I've been in a PDS SVR watch that mentioned the possibility of 100 MPH gusts before. Although, extrapolating radar the action will miss Madison to the south, unless the northern edge of the MCS expands significantly. Not sure what to make of the convective cells moving NW-SE over northeast Iowa, while an E-W oriented band appears to be filling in and moving NORTH around Waterloo. That's going to crash into the SE moving cluster south of Decorah at some point. There's been six known instances of max wind potential (105 MPH gusts) in any watch, most recent was just last year across Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 the way that WAA wing came together 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 This should be interesting, at the very least. I'm just dreading the damage that will be done to my garden. This line is really racing eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 NWS just issued a warning for Cedar Rapids, even with the line two counties away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Not a whole lot of negatives with this setup. Really liking the potential, and added bonus for occurring during daylight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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