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August 10 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm
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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That gust at 16:15 is just incredible.  That had to be over 100mph.  I've watched that part of the vid numerous times and the gust hits so hard it almost sends chills down my spine.  

It's easy to overestimate winds so I tend to lean conservative on estimates, but I'd say there was at least 90-100 mph stuff in there.  

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Trying to find a preliminary dollar amount for all of this with not much success, but the idea of a derecho possibly being a several billion dollar disaster is pretty crazy to think about. 

I'd like to know why the rear-inflow jet seemed to be basically at ground level.  I know there's been instances of long-lasting high winds, but I think that is usually over a smaller swath closer to the parent mesovortex.  I read somewhere that this almost seemed comparable to an HP supercell with a powerful RFD.  In this case the RFD was extremely large.  We didn't get the extreme of Cedar Rapids, but I'll never forget the 1hr+ of non-stop severe level winds.  

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Trying to find a preliminary dollar amount for all of this with not much success, but the idea of a derecho possibly being a several billion dollar disaster is pretty crazy to think about. 

10 million acres of crops destroyed. If half was corn and a total loss that’s $3B alone. The other half is soybeans it’s about $2.7B using 200 and 60 bpa as conservative yield estimates. I’m sure not ALL that is total loss but I bet a bunch is. 

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23 minutes ago, DLMKA said:

10 million acres of crops destroyed. If half was corn and a total loss that’s $3B alone. The other half is soybeans it’s about $2.7B using 200 and 60 bpa as conservative yield estimates. I’m sure not ALL that is total loss but I bet a bunch is. 

Then throw in the other damage and we could perhaps be talking something like 7-10 billion.

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53 minutes ago, hlcater said:

image.jpeg.fde7676552e7b298010a1d32ececfb64.jpeg

I passed through Clinton Iowa/Fulton IL on Monday.  Definitely not surprised to see that local area of higher wind estimate pop up as it was pretty bad.  I also came across a huge grain silo a little west of Elvira that was caved in quite severely.  It's right in line with that corridor of highest winds, although the NWS has 80+mph there. I'll see if I can get that pic on here.

EDIT:  Here it is..

20200817-193415.jpg

20200817-193419.jpg

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Remarkable how such a violent and historic storm could happen with pretty much no medium or even short-range lead time. Initial Day 1 outlook (as we know) had a marginal risk for the affected area. This after the last two Plains high risks with apocalyptic outlook wording for days fell far short of their ceiling. I know severe local storms are heavily influenced by subtle/mesoscale factors but jeez...

* We also just passed the 15th anniversary of the August 18, 2005 Wisconsin tornado outbreak. A state record-setting 27 tornadoes including a long-track F3 that just missed my house occurred on a slight risk day when most of the state was in a "less than 2%" tornado risk as of the 1630Z outlook (most of the outbreak area was upgraded to 5% at 20Z, still not exactly anticipating a regionally historic event).

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19 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Remarkable how such a violent and historic storm could happen with pretty much no medium or even short-range lead time. Initial Day 1 outlook (as we know) had a marginal risk for the affected area. This after the last two Plains high risks with apocalyptic outlook wording for days fell far short of their ceiling. I know severe local storms are heavily influenced by subtle/mesoscale factors but jeez...

* We also just passed the 15th anniversary of the August 18, 2005 Wisconsin tornado outbreak. A state record-setting 27 tornadoes including a long-track F3 that just missed my house occurred on a slight risk day when most of the state was in a "less than 2%" tornado risk as of the 1630Z outlook (most of the outbreak area was upgraded to 5% at 20Z, still not exactly anticipating a regionally historic event).

Summer severe wx prediction has been documented to have less skill than its spring counterpart. Composite parameters and high resolution/convective allowing guidance have less ability when flow becomes more nebulous in the summer, capping is generally stronger over synoptic scales, and forcing is weaker.

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Here's a compilation of all the highest gusts I observed in sequential order. Including one that I believe may have been as high as 120. I had initially pegged it at 100ish, but after seeing damage surveys, other videos in the area and of winds that strong(Irma's eyewall), local measurements(primarily atkins 126), it seems as if marking that gust as 120 isn't necessarily implausible. Essentially, all the gusts were best guess measurements using a similar method to that used on the strongest gust, so I hope that they're fairly accurate and they seemed sound to me. But who knows...

 

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I just got power back Thursday morning, ten days after the storm.  There are still 9k people in the CR area without power.  My Mediacom tv/internet is still out (could be up to another week), but my neighbor has a different service, which is working, and she is letting me use her wifi.  It has been a long couple weeks.  I did a lot of tree cleanup in my yard and surrounding yards.  It was exhausting, but there was nothing to do after dark so I got a lot of sleep.

It was quite a storm, likely something I'll never see again.  It was amazing how it just kept raging for 30-40 minutes.  The worst damage I saw, as someone posted earlier in the thread, is in sw Cedar Rapids, a bit over a mile sw of my house, but everyone got hit.  I'll post a few photos of my neighborhood when I get my fast internet connection back.

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2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just got power back Thursday morning, ten days after the storm.  There are still 9k people in the CR area without power.  My Mediacom tv/internet is still out (could be up to another week), but my neighbor has a different service, which is working, and she is letting me use her wifi.  It has been a long couple weeks.  I did a lot of tree cleanup in my yard and surrounding yards.  It was exhausting, but there was nothing to do after dark so I got a lot of sleep.

It was quite a storm, likely something I'll never see again.  It was amazing how it just kept raging for 30-40 minutes.  The worst damage I saw, as someone posted earlier in the thread, is in sw Cedar Rapids, a bit over a mile sw of my house, but everyone got hit.  I'll post a few photos of my neighborhood when I get my fast internet connection back.

Glad things are getting more back to normal there.  Definitely a pain in the ass to be sure.  

Found the location the infamous falling pine tree derecho vid was shot at in Cedar Rapids.  It's on Greenfield Street just west of C Ave.  This looking back towards the house where vid was captured.

fngf.jpg

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13 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just got power back Thursday morning, ten days after the storm.  There are still 9k people in the CR area without power.  My Mediacom tv/internet is still out (could be up to another week), but my neighbor has a different service, which is working, and she is letting me use her wifi.  It has been a long couple weeks.  I did a lot of tree cleanup in my yard and surrounding yards.  It was exhausting, but there was nothing to do after dark so I got a lot of sleep.

It was quite a storm, likely something I'll never see again.  It was amazing how it just kept raging for 30-40 minutes.  The worst damage I saw, as someone posted earlier in the thread, is in sw Cedar Rapids, a bit over a mile sw of my house, but everyone got hit.  I'll post a few photos of my neighborhood when I get my fast internet connection back.

Nightmare stuff. Glad to hear from you. Can't imagine the clean-up misery in the heat of the tropics post-major hurricanes, but now you can unfortunately. I'll take a hard pass on a 1st hand at that one.

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