Hurricane Isaias

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

 

Yep but don't give a shit until they can't work from home. Amazing 

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

This old man has been screaming at the cloud since 2011 but no one has listened.  We tried to tell them 

Lots of people have said it's not enough. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Still without power. At least they finally replaced the pole that came down, today...6 days later. 

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Would it ever factor into your forecast wording or how serious your "storm prep" message is to viewers/public?  The ease at which certain events that don't appear all that damaging elsewhere, might lead to bigger issues with the CT grid? 

I won't lie, whenever I go to the NE corner and adjacent areas, even the main state highways have very tall trees growing right on lines/roadway at a rate you don't see in VT or eastern NY.  Can't really say for Mass, but CT just has a very dense tall forest overhead vibe that's aesthetically pleasing on windy country two-lane highways.  It's easy to imagine how tree damage can lead to big issues when those tree crowns are over the powerlines everywhere.

Yeah I think we're pretty in tune with what is going to turn into a CT power disaster and what won't.

This storm did present some challenges for me - especially because we had the tornado event on Sunday so I was pretty deep into that most of the day, With respect to Isaias though the forecast did get more severe as we got closer. On Sunday I was thinking gusts around 50 or so but it didn't look like a major wind producer to me (in fact the 11p advisory from NHC on Sunday cut the intensity down quite a bit here and dropped the odds of TS force winds substantially). 

By Monday AM I knew were were in trouble with all the models converging on a solution with a tight/in tact core with a ripping LLJ and the models all showing an unusually large amount of mixing. I bumped up the wind forecast big time with 50-70 mph and went from "scattered tree/power issues" to "widespread". I do think that came a little later than I would have liked it to. 

[Ginx snewx]

9 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah I think we're pretty in tune with what is going to turn into a CT power disaster and what won't.

This storm did present some challenges for me - especially because we had the tornado event on Sunday so I was pretty deep into that most of the day, With respect to Isaias though the forecast did get more severe as we got closer. On Sunday I was thinking gusts around 50 or so but it didn't look like a major wind producer to me (in fact the 11p advisory from NHC on Sunday cut the intensity down quite a bit here and dropped the odds of TS force winds substantially). 

By Monday AM I knew were were in trouble with all the models converging on a solution with a tight/in tact core with a ripping LLJ and the models all showing an unusually large amount of mixing. I bumped up the wind forecast big time with 50-70 mph and went from "scattered tree/power issues" to "widespread". I do think that came a little later than I would have liked it to. 

You did fine.  That 850 high winds with mixing consistent signal was key. I stocked up Sunday and tried to tell all my kids and friends. Most didn't listen so we scrambled to help the ones with little kids. My grandaughter and her 2 year old just got power back yesterday. She was totally unprepared, we had a long talk and I think she learned a valuable lesson.  No water is the key

[Brian5671]

interestingly, my hot water heater provided hot water throughout the whole ordeal (nat gas).  Some of my neighbors did not...not sure why....Our water heater is a couple years old.

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

interestingly, my hot water heater provided hot water throughout the whole ordeal (nat gas).  Some of my neighbors did not...not sure why....Our water heater is a couple years old.

Natural gas delivery isn't impacted by electrical outages.  If you have a gas stove I would think that you would be able use that too. Unless the electronic ignition runs on electricity

[Ginx snewx]

This area in SWCT is the 2020 version of ECT in 2011. Sucked for 10 days. They are on day 8

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Natural gas delivery isn't impacted by electrical outages.  If you have a gas stove I would think that you would be able use that too. Unless the electronic ignition runs on electricity

the stove worked too.   Just had to manually light it.

[weatherwiz]

13 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah I think we're pretty in tune with what is going to turn into a CT power disaster and what won't.

This storm did present some challenges for me - especially because we had the tornado event on Sunday so I was pretty deep into that most of the day, With respect to Isaias though the forecast did get more severe as we got closer. On Sunday I was thinking gusts around 50 or so but it didn't look like a major wind producer to me (in fact the 11p advisory from NHC on Sunday cut the intensity down quite a bit here and dropped the odds of TS force winds substantially). 

By Monday AM I knew were were in trouble with all the models converging on a solution with a tight/in tact core with a ripping LLJ and the models all showing an unusually large amount of mixing. I bumped up the wind forecast big time with 50-70 mph and went from "scattered tree/power issues" to "widespread". I do think that came a little later than I would have liked it to. 

This setup I think drew alot of attention away from Isaias up this way. Obviously Sunday wasn't going to be a widespread severe weather day or even be a widespread t'storm day. It was just if one storm developed, the chances of producing a tornado were on the higher side...and that's exactly what happened. It's extremely challenging trying to convey impacts for separate weather events when they're so close together. 

OTOH though...seeing what happened scares me. It goes to show how little warning time we may have if the big one comes. I would tend to think that we would certainly have an idea several days out...at least enough of an idea to spread the word, however, and this is the scariest part, that is not going to be a guarantee...there is going to be that "maybe" or "possibility"...when people hear those words or uncertainties, more often than not they're going to blow it off. But the time we would be 100% certain...it would be way too late to take the appropriate measures. 

Let's look at Isaias from another perspective...obviously there wasn't any guidance having this storm take off and strengthen off the Carolina or southeast coast...however, that window of opportunity was there and we've seen in the past how quickly these things can turn into monsters in that region. It tried too...it really did. If there was probably a window of another 6-12 hours before landfall it may have strengthened...and by quite a bit. I remember Monday night watching just before landfall and started to get an uneasy feeling (maybe it wasn't Monday night...maybe late afternoon) but it looked like it was starting to get its act together in a hurry. 

This is what scares me b/c you get a storm...even if its only a TS in that area...you just never know. It's like a system in the GoM...I never trust those. 

[BrianW]

“As a storm approaches, we engage a variety of different resources – including UConn’s predictive model and experts from outside weather services – to track the storm and forecast its severity and path. Based on the tools and guidance we received from our external experts, we followed our plan and filed for the appropriate level of classification. From the time we declared our initial level based on our best available tracking models at the end of last week, the storm’s path deviated from those models and we’ve reclassified the storm accordingly as our models dictated, which is a typical utility practice once a storm hits.”

https://ctmirror.org/2020/08/05/lamont-says-it-will-take-days-to-recover-power/

[bobbutts]

On 8/9/2020 at 10:19 AM, BrianW said:

I used this $500 Harbor Freight inverter generator for 3 days straight and then gave it to my mom. Its supposedly an exact clone of a Honda unit. It has a 1 gallon tank and sips fuel. Was getting 8-10 hours off a tank. Ran my fridge, lights, tv, window ac, etc. 

Get one if you don't own one. Worth every penny.

 

Yep, these are great.  I have a cheaper "sportsman" 1k watt inverter that has plenty to power my PC and monitor (via my sine wave ups) and also speakers and a fan.  It starts easily, runs quietly and reliably so far, and sips gas. 

I have a larger generator that I use much less.  It's harder to start, noisy, and uses gas fast.  Also it doesn't have an inverter so my UPS won't charge off of it.

  For most short outages just getting those few things working with a small inverter generator is plenty.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Finally...power was restored around 10am. My house is pre-wired for a generator already so of course my plan to get a standby generac before the winter was obviously too late but that’s next on the to-do/to-buy list.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

If/when we get a generator I would set it up to power our well, our fridge, our furnace, and maybe 1 or 2 outlets.   
I’m ballparking $1500 for the generator itself and about the same for an electrician to wire it up correctly.    Sound reasonable?

I still question getting one but we have been dodging bullets since 2008 at my house 

[hammerz_nailz]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If/when we get a generator I would set it up to power our well, our fridge, our furnace, and maybe 1 or 2 outlets.   
I’m ballparking $1500 for the generator itself and about the same for an electrician to wire it up correctly.    Sound reasonable?

I still question getting one but we have been dodging bullets since 2008 at my house 

We wanted to be able to power those same things and have a 6500 watt with 8125 starting watts. I wish it had electric start but hasn't really given us a problem. Someday I'd like to get a Honda with electric start and clean enough power to run computers etc. Those are about 5 grand and just cant justify as we rarely lose power. Ever since we lost power for 10 days after Gloria we've always had a generator.

[bobbutts]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If/when we get a generator I would set it up to power our well, our fridge, our furnace, and maybe 1 or 2 outlets.   
I’m ballparking $1500 for the generator itself and about the same for an electrician to wire it up correctly.    Sound reasonable?

I still question getting one but we have been dodging bullets since 2008 at my house 

just note that with a portable generator it may not be easy to get it to where the input for the house if there is a bunch of snow or it's in an inconvenient place.  Make sure you don't put it somewhere where it will cause a carbon monoxide problem in the house.

Also those 220v wires you'll use to connect the generator to that are expensive, so it will cost you to have a longer one to work around that.

When I moved in my house was wired already for that stuff, but the spot sucks for rolling out the portable generator especially if there is snowpack.

Ideally you want a standby whole home generator running on natural gas.  I have had my eye on a system like that for awhile but it is really hard pull the trigger on it when other home projects are more urgent.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, hammerz_nailz said:

We wanted to be able to power those same things and have a 6500 watt with 8125 starting watts. I wish it had electric start but hasn't really given us a problem. Someday I'd like to get a Honda with electric start and clean enough power to run computers etc. Those are about 5 grand and just cant justify as we rarely lose power. Ever since we lost power for 10 days after Gloria we've always had a generator.

I have an old cheapo 10,000 watt generator and I have never had an issue running computers off of it. They are not that sensitive unless you are talking about scientific or ham radio equipment. I assumed you were talking about regular laptops and such. Just get a good surge protector. 

[weatherwiz]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree in part. I think with regard to track we are in much better shape in at least having some lead time to spread the word. I first mentioned Isaias to followers ~9 days out. It was just in passing to them but internally I knew that this was at the very least likely to be a long track deal given the upper level pattern. We were at least 4-5 days out when we had increasing confidence that the steering pattern favored a coast runner. Although a landfall pattern up here isn't quite a unicorn, you know the pattern when you see it. We require more for a strike so I think it's easier to see when the players are on the field at a distance.  

Intensity is the concern, especially this year given the level of TCHP we see in the central and western Caribbean where storms can get rocketed northward in October and off the SE coast/Bahamas where August/September climo can favor east coast recurves. That as well as the overall lack of shear consistent with a cool-neutral ENSO. Intensity forecasting is still one of the hardest areas of meteorology. 

With Isaias, there was guidance hinting at the possibility of intensification off the SE coast. The globals (especially the Euro) were late to the game but the hurricane models (HWRF/HMON) ended up doing pretty well with intensity in the 24-36 hours prior to landfall. Even without model consensus, it was clear to me days before that there would be a window, and given the daily convective bursts that were taking place, it seemed pretty easy to me to make an intensification call despite the lazy posts in the main thread during the convective minimums we saw. 

First image below comes from Quincy. I think our worst case scenario is something undergoing RI in the Bahamas/Caribbean or a major undergoing slower than expected weakening as a result of less hostile conditions along the SE coast. In either case, you'd need a system moving very quickly through the region to maintain intensity. 

SSTs/TCHP go a long way to opening a window, but we'll obviously need to see in-situ shear and moisture levels if something is approaching. 

Great post...very well stated on all points. 

I completely agree too regarding forecast pattern/Isaias. Several days out it was obvious the synoptic pattern was going to be one to favor a track up the east coast. I know we've both talked about this several times but when you see that type of pattern...you can certainly start and raise awareness and emphasis the significance of the pattern. If the pattern looks like crap...99.999% of of the time you can write it off. And this is what pisses me off about weenies on social media...anytime a tropical system emerges you always get posts about "having to watch in SNE"...even though there is zero pattern support. It's crap like that too which lowers people's guard. 

The other big player here with Isaias when Ryan pointed out beautifully was the orientation of the ULJ and the strength of the ULJ...that alone right there was a huge indicator this system was not going to weaken and could even slightly strengthen. 

We definitely would need a very fast moving system to maintain intensity. Now...that's also a terrible thing. Some may think that a fast moving system is a savior but in fact, it's just the opposite. What made the hurricane of 38 so destructive was it's forward speed...not sure many realize how much a fast moving system enhances the wind. You don't need 12-hours of high winds to produce significant damage...let's look at MO/IL/IN yesterday with the derecho. Minutes of winds 70-80-90+ is going to produce significant and widespread damage...especially in our region where trees are weak and building codes aren't much (except maybe for newer buildings). 

[ice1972]

7 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If/when we get a generator I would set it up to power our well, our fridge, our furnace, and maybe 1 or 2 outlets.   
I’m ballparking $1500 for the generator itself and about the same for an electrician to wire it up correctly.    Sound reasonable?

I still question getting one but we have been dodging bullets since 2008 at my house 

You can get like 6-7kW for $800-$1200 depending on what type.....theres dual fuel ones and ones with bigger starting wattage.......the outdoor connection and wiring to the panel with the transfer switch is like $500.......friend of ours just had electrician over today and they paid him just under $500......cheapest way is the manual transfer switch with like a 30amp or 50amp 120/240 cable between genny and plug......the cable is like $100-$200......I'll be installing this setup before winter after the prices come down from this event.......the power grid is such a shit show.....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 hours ago, bobbutts said:

just note that with a portable generator it may not be easy to get it to where the input for the house if there is a bunch of snow or it's in an inconvenient place.  Make sure you don't put it somewhere where it will cause a carbon monoxide problem in the house.

Also those 220v wires you'll use to connect the generator to that are expensive, so it will cost you to have a longer one to work around that.

When I moved in my house was wired already for that stuff, but the spot sucks for rolling out the portable generator especially if there is snowpack.

Ideally you want a standby whole home generator running on natural gas.  I have had my eye on a system like that for awhile but it is really hard pull the trigger on it when other home projects are more urgent.

Yea. Same here. House is pre wired for a genny. I’ve been staring at the generac standby’s for over a year now ever since my portable gas genny crapped out on me but with so many other important projects on the table, was hard to justify spending the money for it. Then this happens....but I only lost what I had in the fridge and lived at my mother in laws for 7 days. It’s even harder now to justify the purchase when all things considered, I lost maybe $100 worth of food while my MIL enjoyed having her grandkids for a week. So I may just get another portable for like $500-$1000 for the essentials and call it complete. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Same here. House is pre wired for a genny. I’ve been staring at the generac standby’s for over a year now ever since my portable gas genny crapped out on me but with so many other important projects on the table, was hard to justify spending the money for it. Then this happens....but I only lost what I had in the fridge and lived at my mother in laws for 7 days. It’s even harder now to justify the purchase when all things considered, I lost maybe $100 worth of food while my MIL enjoyed having her grandkids for a week. So I may just get another portable for like $500-$1000 for the essentials and call it complete. 

Glad you got your power back. Yea a portable works great to save the food and give you that essential water if you are on a well. Next time MIL might be out. Plus in the winter ya got to have heat

[mreaves]

8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Same here. House is pre wired for a genny. I’ve been staring at the generac standby’s for over a year now ever since my portable gas genny crapped out on me but with so many other important projects on the table, was hard to justify spending the money for it. Then this happens....but I only lost what I had in the fridge and lived at my mother in laws for 7 days. It’s even harder now to justify the purchase when all things considered, I lost maybe $100 worth of food while my MIL enjoyed having her grandkids for a week. So I may just get another portable for like $500-$1000 for the essentials and call it complete. 

 

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Glad you got your power back. Yea a portable works great to save the food and give you that essential water if you are on a well. Next time MIL might be out. Plus in the winter ya got to have heat

I loved my MIL but the prospect of spending a week at her place would of had me doing anything possible to keep our electricity.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

I loved my MIL but the prospect of spending a week at her place would of had me doing anything possible to keep our electricity.

She feeds me more than my wife does...I may just ‘switch’ women.