Hurricane Isaias

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

LWM had .28

Thanks.

Yea, the rain/flooding threat went by the wayside as it became apparent that the system would track well west of us.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks.

Yea, the rain/flooding threat went by the wayside as it became apparent that the system would track well west of us.

Yeah that is a given. If you aren't west of the track...it's Tippy tilted CU towers and Bermuda Blues.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I've noticed the same...hell I've noticed a quite a bit of trees too that have numerous limbs without leaves (which are even surrounded by trees which are fully leaved). Not sure if the tree disease is just worsening significantly but I'm noticing more and more even larger pockets where you have several trees just completely bare. 

The forest canopy is much thinner after the storm. I can see the sky much more through my backyard canopy. What was dense lush solid leaves is thinner and unhealthy looking. The branches and twig clusters with leaves on the ground are crunchy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that is a given. If you aren't west of the track...it's Tippy tilted CU towers and Bermuda Blues.

Right.....not sure why it garnered some curious responses.

No surprise....

[mreaves]

8 hours ago, Amped said:

 

Fairmount, West Virginia has   1 lane 2 way dirt roads with weeds overgrown with 10 foot jungle weeds so you can't see around corners.   Also they connect on google maps but end in the driveway of a house  that been there at least 30 years in real life.  

 

VT has all sorts of roads like that.  Google and other GPS services don't treat Class IV roads any differently than year round roads.  The number of people who end up stuck on what become snowmobile trails in winter is pretty large.  They are usually following the route set out by their GPS.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right.....not sure why it garnered some curious responses.

No surprise....

You made that comment when all modeling was south then said you were joking.  Any tropical system to our west is dry thats just normal

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

VT has all sorts of roads like that.  Google and other GPS services don't treat Class IV roads any differently than year round roads.  The number of people who end up stuck on what become snowmobile trails in winter is pretty large.  They are usually following the route set out by their GPS.

I remember the people in Utah who followed GPS and didn't all survive a blizzard . I think the wife survived 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right.....not sure why it garnered some curious responses.

No surprise....

Good for you with sticking to your guns. It's a shame you don't work in the field...your presentation of forecasts is impeccable. I also love how you don't model hug...you use a combination of instinct, knowledge, climo, and data to derive at your forecast. You also don't waver and panic over each model run. You do things correctly. Some just have a horrible habit of focusing on one or two model products and throw flags or towels in with the change of each run. 

[mreaves]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I remember the people in Utah who followed GPS and didn't all survive a blizzard . I think the wife survived 

I remember that too.  There are so many old roads up here that were never formally abandoned by towns.  They are interesting and fun to explore, when you do it appropriately, not in the middle of winter in you expensive, low ground clearance Lexus with summer tires. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You made that comment when all modeling was south then said you were joking.  Any tropical system to our west is dry thats just normal

I made that comment as models were relentlessly trending westward. Obviously rain was not going to be entirely taken out of the equation for SNE, which was the sarcastic inference, however, it was becoming apparent that heavy totals were in question. That is what I was getting at.

You replied by posting guidance still printing out 2-3" over most of SNE, which I felt would not verify.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I made that comment as models were relentless trending west. Obviously rain was not going to be entirely taken out of the equation for SNE, which was the sarcastic inference, however, it was becoming apparent that heavy totals were in question. That is what I was getting at.

You replied by posting guidance still printing out 2-3" over most of SNE, which I felt would not verify.

You never said that it wouldn't verify at the time you only said you were being sarcastic.  I mean if you want to go look its all there. Pretty easy rain forecast once the track shifted. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I made that comment as models were relentlessly trending westward. Obviously rain was not going to be entirely taken out of the equation for SNE, which was the sarcastic inference, however, it was becoming apparent that heavy totals were in question. That is what I was getting at.

You replied by posting guidance still printing out 2-3" over most of SNE, which I felt would not verify.

Most couldn't even get 0.23" LOL. Nevermind, 2-3"

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Good for you with sticking to your guns. It's a shame you don't work in the field...your presentation of forecasts is impeccable. I also love how you don't model hug...you use a combination of instinct, knowledge, climo, and data to derive at your forecast. You also don't waver and panic over each model run. You do things correctly. Some just have a horrible habit of focusing on one or two model products and throw flags or towels in with the change of each run. 

I do regret not touching upon the sensible impact in SNE more....I tend to focus on landfall area due to time constraints, and it was also apparent it would be NBD in eastern areas.

But in hindsight, I think it was a big enough deal in enough of SNE that I should have acknowledged it more.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You never said that it wouldn't verify at the time you only said you were being sarcastic.  I mean if you want to go look its all there. Pretty easy rain forecast once the track shifted. 

You are right; I didn't. I'm telling you what I was thinking, which my landfall forecast corroborates.

It was clear to me we weren't getting 2-3" of rain here.

But I also didn't think that all mention of rain should be literally removed from the forecast.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do regret not touching upon the sensible impact in SNE more....I tend to focus on landfall area due to time constraints, and it was also apparent it would be NBD in eastern areas.

But in hindsight, I think it was a big enough deal in enough of SNE that I should have acknowledged it more.

I think someone last week said the winds would be stronger in SNE than FL. And someone else said that was wrong. Something like that I recall reading 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think someone last week said the winds would be stronger in SNE than FL. And someone else said that was wrong. Something like that I recall reading 

I remember. What were the max winds in FL?

That was an ill-advised post on my part because I was forecasting the storm to remain east of FL. It was more of a reflection of my bias of underestimating the impact in W SNE.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do regret not touching upon the sensible impact in SNE more....I tend to focus on landfall area due to time constraints, and it was also apparent it would be NBD in eastern areas.

But in hindsight, I think it was a big enough deal in enough of SNE that I should have acknowledged it more.

Time constraint is certainly understandable. Hell...I wish I had more free time to be more involved with blog posts like I used to do but I think even I'm getting tired of them lol. I've actually thought about turning more into videocasts but issue is I just don't have much personal time. 

I actually enjoy your landfall focus. While I certainly understand your frustration regarding sensible impact there is tremendous value with landfalll forecasts and I think you do a helluva job pinning down locations. I do read your tropical posts/forecasts carefully b/c I admire your landfall predictions and I find them extremely helpful. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Time constraint is certainly understandable. Hell...I wish I had more free time to be more involved with blog posts like I used to do but I think even I'm getting tired of them lol. I've actually thought about turning more into videocasts but issue is I just don't have much personal time. 

I actually enjoy your landfall focus. While I certainly understand your frustration regarding sensible impact there is tremendous value with landfalll forecasts and I think you do a helluva job pinning down locations. I do read your tropical posts/forecasts carefully b/c I admire your landfall predictions and I find them extremely helpful. 

Thanks. The time is a challenge with a full-time job, wife and child, but I do my best. I think the fact that I glossed over local impacts is a byproduct of the time constraint. I need to do a better job of managing that, and I'm glad that Kevin called me out on that because it raises my awareness of it.

My site is "Eastern Mass Weather", but I do try to cover all of SNE, and this system was memorable throughout W SNE.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks. The time is a challenge with a full-time job, wife and child, but I do my best. I think the fact that I glossed over local impacts is a byproduct of the time constraint. I need to do a better job of managing that, and I'm glad that Kevin called me out on that because it raises my awareness of it.

My site is "Eastern Mass Weather", but I do try to cover all of SNE, and this system was memorable throughout W SNE.

Covering an entire region is very difficult. I would agree with your assessment to as to why you would have glanced over the local impacts. I used to spend so much time on my blog psots going over the science and meteorology that I would;

1) Just run out of steam and want to be done so I would have very little detail about local impacts 

2) Kinda completely forget to even go into those details...and quite frankly this is what people reading care most about. Perhaps there are some weather weenies who love the science but little Joe wondering if they should cover a window couldn't care less about some jet streak in SE Canada

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The forest canopy is much thinner after the storm. I can see the sky much more through my backyard canopy. What was dense lush solid leaves is thinner and unhealthy looking. The branches and twig clusters with leaves on the ground are crunchy.

While we lost few large branches, tons of leaves and clusters of leaves came down. Should make easier fall cleanups.  Lol

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, mreaves said:

VT has all sorts of roads like that.  Google and other GPS services don't treat Class IV roads any differently than year round roads.  The number of people who end up stuck on what become snowmobile trails in winter is pretty large.  They are usually following the route set out by their GPS.

This reminds me of 3 years ago when a fellow from RI got all excited seeing Andover, Maine reporting a 76" pack and drove up to see.  He didn't realize that NNE plow drivers start planning for the next storm as soon as the present one is cleared, and that the roadside piles thus look modest because they've been pushed back.  He never left the paved road but when he headed west on the East B Hill Road and got behind the Mahoosucs his GPS feed disappeared.  With gas running low and no idea where he really was, he was more than a bit anxious, and when he got back home he excoriated Maine roads, Maine snow reporting and all things Maine.  I probably didn't help his mood when I mentioned old fashioned paper maps.  (And if he really wanted to see pack, he should've gone to Machias in Feb 2015.)

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think someone last week said the winds would be stronger in SNE than FL. And someone else said that was wrong. Something like that I recall reading 

Great call, amazing how Florida has a barrier up and storms parallel that coast. 

[Chrisrotary12]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

And from a TS, folks. This is a larger problem though. This country needs to get its shit together with infrastructure. 

Funny how every Presidential candidate promises better infrastructure yet it never happens. But by all means let's create a Space Force!

[Ginx snewx]

 

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

This reminds me of 3 years ago when a fellow from RI got all excited seeing Andover, Maine reporting a 76" pack and drove up to see.  He didn't realize that NNE plow drivers start planning for the next storm as soon as the present one is cleared, and that the roadside piles thus look modest because they've been pushed back.  He never left the paved road but when he headed west on the East B Hill Road and got behind the Mahoosucs his GPS feed disappeared.  With gas running low and no idea where he really was, he was more than a bit anxious, and when he got back home he excoriated Maine roads, Maine snow reporting and all things Maine.  I probably didn't help his mood when I mentioned old fashioned paper maps.  (And if he really wanted to see pack, he should've gone to Machias in Feb 2015.)

lol that would be Cory the world champion accordion player. Kind of eccentric but the boy loves his snow and trees

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great call, amazing how Florida has a barrier up and storms parallel that coast. 

I think its because FL and GA have the most longitude on the east coast.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its because FL and GA have the most longitude on the east coast.

Just probably the parabolic curve nature of cyclones once they get north of 25 N but man they certainly have escaped the last couple of years 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Just probably the parabolic curve nature of cyclones once they get north of 25 N but man they certainly have escaped the last couple of years 

Yea, that in conjunction with the longitude of FL and GA....agreed.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that in conjunction with the longitude of FL and GA....agreed.

I am confused about Georgia,  they have a tiny coast line

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am confused about Georgia,  they have a tiny coast line

Yes, that in conjunction with the longitude that has them tucked into the concave of the coastline.

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that in conjunction with the longitude of FL and GA....agreed.

Recurve timing/location usually spares N. FL and GA - Michael was an exception.  Hugo was the classic exception though farther north.  I think it's significant recurving began around KY.