weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 I don't think comparisons to previous events is really justifiable. Each setup is rather unique. If you're looking to compare you would have to find a previous event in which the synoptics match quite well (this is extremely important in this situation given the role the ULJ is playing here) and find some similarities within the mesoscale...such as the profile of the lower atmosphere. How many events like this do we see in which an inversion is very weak or even non-existent (though I don't think you can use non-existent b/c there has to be some sort of inversion involved) and how many tropical systems give us the tornado threat we have...at the end of the day the TOR threat is probably the biggest out of any threat. The damaging wind threat can't be overlooked either...yes 50-60 knots may not sound "exciting" but winds of that magnitude over a widespread area with fully leaved trees is going to cause issues...don't be fooled about the "fast" nature or "brief" period of these winds...in fact, winds can be maximized when the forward speed of a system is very fast (one of the culprits which made the 38 hurricane damage even worse). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Breeze has just kicked in here in ORH. What's the latest on rain thoughts? My hope for that is steadily dwindling. How often does one need to think they need to water their lawn the day after a tropical system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 lol at the peeps posting yesterday was winder. Reminds me of the storm cancel posts before Feb 13 Jan 15 March 18. Nothing changed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Last tropical system that was the real deal here where I am was Gloria in 85...that was pretty good here. Watching and waiting to see how all this plays out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Seeing how there are no tornado warnings currently to the southwest I suppose is a good thing. Anyways, velocites are ripping looking at DIX John Earthlight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Seeing how there are no tornado warnings currently to the southwest I suppose is a good thing. Anyways, velocites are ripping looking at DIX Yeah...I've been talking about this, this morning...even annotated a chart to help demo/illustrate the reasoning - not sure it is being seen or acknowledged... But the warned cells this morning - in my assessment - do not appear to be borne of the TC mechanics ... Those cells were IB generated as the environmental flow out ahead of the TC is SSW and is lifting over a frontalysis that is lingering over the region along the Mass Pike... When those cells speed bumped over the boundary interface, they likely closed off their updrafts briefly because of the shear profiles along that axis. Just sayn' 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Sun is out nice day incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Possible tor near Gene edit: cancel that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: John Earthlight wow! 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...I've been talking about this, this morning...even annotated a chart to help demo/illustrate the reasoning - not sure it is being seen or acknowledged... But the warned cells this morning - in my assessment - do not appear to be borne of the TC mechanics ... Those cells were IB generated as the environmental flow out ahead of the TC is SSW and is lifting over a frontalysis that is lingering over the region along the Mass Pike... When those cells speed bumped over the boundary interface, they likely closed off their updrafts briefly because of the shear profiles along that axis. Just sayn' ahh yes i do recall seeing that post. Was going to respond but got side tracked. Interesting observation and makes alot of sense I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Totally get the feeling people in general all around are writing this off as meh. Hopefully it is but .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Totally get the feeling people in general all around are writing this off as meh. Hopefully it is but .... I think people are expecting this to be like an all day event of craziness and damage...it's really only a several hour window of hell...calm before, then hell, then a gradual decline, then quickly back to calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 As a severe weather enthusiast I hope I get a direct impact before the season ends. As someone who lives here though, I really don't want to have to deal with no power for an extended period of time, which is exactly what would happen during such an occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally get the feeling people in general all around are writing this off as meh. Hopefully it is but .... Agreed, it's an afternoon and evening show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: I think people are expecting this to be like an all day event of craziness and damage...it's really only a several hour window of hell...calm before, then hell, then a gradual decline, then quickly back to calm Hell lol...ya I’m not thinking hell. But ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's pretty similar to Irene, right near NYC. Irene was stronger though. Irene was further east right into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think these early tor warned cells are more associated with convection running up and over the top of the book-end frontal boundary that was, as of 13:31 still draiped west to east ...sort of "frontalysis" in nature ..through the area. They were potent with high end DBZ ongoing ... but waited/rather suddenly tripped tor warning when they were roughly between the Pike and Rt 2 And below this residual boundary the skies are brightening like a proper warm sector would... There's some quasi behavior though - this TC is going to be "latching" onto these frontal structure as it natively acquires more and more transitioning to baroclinic physics, and you can kinda .. sorta see how it becomes "like" a standard cyclone and that frontal fragment over SNE would become the warm frontal arm?? Well, warm fronts have nearly ideal helicity profiles... and those cells speed bumping over that shear profile might have caused their updrafts to close off Just a hypothesis... Because for one, they are too far removed from the TC to really be part of it's specific forcing. You didn't ask...I'm just offering up this analysis to everyone and using your post as a launch Always love reading your analysis, even if half of it goes over my head. Reminds me of sitting in a higher level lecture in college. While at Millersville University, I took a few Met courses which allowed me to sit in on Eric Horst and Dr. John Scala's weather discussions. I miss those days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Irene didn’t go ET like this . If this didn’t go ET it’s another Fay Yeah it did. It had like best winds on the Cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Irene was further east right into NYC This will be just west of NYC and a broader low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Irene brought solid surge and wind to south coast..and we had a microburst. Pretty memorable for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 The center of this will be a little broader and sort of oblong. So the exact center position won't matter too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 It's still interesting to see that the HRRR continues to advertise gusts upwards of 70 knots across coastal CT. That seems a bit excessive but I suppose 60 knots is possible...especially with any deeper convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Always love reading your analysis, even if half of it goes over my head. Reminds me of sitting in a higher level lecture in college. While at Millersville University, I took a few Met courses which allowed me to sit in on Eric Horst and Dr. John Scala's weather discussions. I miss those days... Currently a Met major at Millersville myself, Horst is a local legend. Knows his stuff very well. Back on topic, will be exciting to read through this sub-forum later. Hoping y'all have fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Possible tor near Gene edit: cancel that Watching SW. Heavy shower just past west. Here is a 15 sec timelapse of past hour https://video.nest.com/clip/3e2fa1cd60bc46f3afa887b04fcc58e0.mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Is OKX radar down? Not loading anything on Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 57kts ACY earlier. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Is OKX radar down? Not loading anything on Radarscope still good here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Just now, FXWX said: still good here... hmm weird. Nothing loading up for me. I shut down and restarted and it's all good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Winds just picked up...dead calm all morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Is OKX radar down? Not loading anything on Radarscope Working for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Well it's coming...should see rapid decline in weather across CT over the next 30-60 minutes. We have a pretty ripe environment across the state...especially southern CT. Let's see how this pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now