Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know ...I'm kinda coveting a private experiment through this synoptic cinema. I'm still secretly unconvinced this thing doesn't elevate much of it's impact potential ... I joked and referred to it as a 'see-thru frisbie' a couple nights ago. But I'm holding back because the Euro solution from last night - however - hearkened somewhat to Ryan H'.s salient tweet about the jet structures potentially coupling with the vestigial mechanics. This most recent run seems to have additional isobars (along standard intervals) added as it is absorbing into the large cyclonic envelopment over the N OV...and it's difficult to see that as being tropical in nature for what is forcing that, once this thing is passing NYC's ~ latitude. It seems it is getting an assist in "re" or depth maintenance as it accelerates N of the Del Marva here during the afternoon - going by the 00z run... I don't see another reason for that ... If it wasn't for that, this would probably decouple from the lower troposphere below a weakening threshold and pressure pattern normalizing below restoration's ability to overcome the BL resistance much more than 10 mi inland from the coast(s). So...what is fascinating here is that this may end up producing a synoptic wind pulse from that idiosyncrasy alone, but not "really" be a TC at that time. Here's a forecast, cloudy with a 90% chance of misconception of event burying what really took place beneath of din of oohs and ahs. Pretty much a LLJ jet issue here as many have pointed out. The transitioning core will go up the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: My folks are out on the island. I've demanded pics/vids later, as it will be a good show on the water. Good observation spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Guidance did a good job of identifying this mornings convective/spinner threat out west. We still yawn out east. I don't think i ever have said this, But i may be to far east for the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 May have another tor around Brattleboro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 I guess the only thing up to this way will be that rotating line for later today.. otherwise meh with some strong gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: LLJ going across Delmarva right now so we’ll see what SBY to GEO reports in the next hour. 53 knots at SBY 49 knots at WWD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Given the winds aloft, I’d think EF2 is possible for sure. Low topped supercells can produce but as you know it’s harder. But the wind and shear is there to tighten up one of these guys. Yeah my main concern is the amount of CAPE within the lowest 3km which is also where shear is maximized. Plus you're talking about LCL's ~500m which strong tornadoes become much more of a possibility when LCL's are below 750m. Violent tornado parameter is also at a 2 in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Yeah wiz, I don’t know about a strong type of tornado, but with these TCs you get a lot of EF1s and maybe even an EF2. I think for us it depends on that arc of cells that is off the Delmarva. But I’m not sure how much oomph that has when it comes up here. The peak of the tornado stuff I think is now in the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Pretty darn excited this will be mostly a daytime event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Pretty darn excited this will be mostly a daytime event Yea. Easier to spot shitty weather to be safe, nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah wiz, I don’t know about a strong type of tornado, but with these TCs you get a lot of EF1s and maybe even an EF2. I think for us it depends on that arc of cells that is off the Delmarva. But I’m not sure how much oomph that has when it comes up here. The peak of the tornado stuff I think is now in the Delmarva. I do think the threat is real in SW CT for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah wiz, I don’t know about a strong type of tornado, but with these TCs you get a lot of EF1s and maybe even an EF2. I think for us it depends on that arc of cells that is off the Delmarva. But I’m not sure how much oomph that has when it comes up here. The peak of the tornado stuff I think is now in the Delmarva. I should have clarified but by strong I was getting at EF2 type stuff possible. But yeah, I agree...I also think perhaps that stuff may arrive a bit too early but looks like dews in southern CT are a bit higher and 3km CAPE is the same or slightly greater. Guess it's just a matter of does shear increase further before they arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 NYC looks like a prime spot for tornado threat and high wind threat...Staten Island and Brooklyn are likely greatest risk being exposed to the southeast fetch off the open water... That recent 90 mph gust in Virginia was also reported in the same sector that’s likely to effect NYC area if extrapolate current trajectory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tip going big.. I'm seriously curious ... "tip going big" - what exactly did you glean from that post I just made ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 Need some advice from the Mets please. The Euro has been consistent in bringing a core of very strong gusts through the NW Lakes Region of NH. It actually intensifies the core as it moves north just east of the Conn Valley. Im at a high elevation with a south exposure. I rarely gust over 40 and my all time high in a winter cold front is 61mph. That did a lot of damage. Is this core of winds even remotely possible. Euro says 80-90mph gusts. I don't believe that but even 60 would be very strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Some heavy rains down in MD, 8"+ totals being reported now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm seriously curious ... "tip going big" - what exactly did you glean from that post I just made ? That you were thinking higher end but probably read it wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: NYC looks like a prime spot for tornado threat and high wind threat...Staten Island and Brooklyn are likely greatest risk being exposed to the southeast fetch off the open water... Southern Queens where JFK is as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know ...I'm kinda coveting a private experiment through this synoptic cinema. I'm still secretly unconvinced this thing doesn't elevate much of it's impact potential ... I joked and referred to it as a 'see-thru frisbie' a couple nights ago. But I'm holding back because the Euro solution from last night - however - hearkened somewhat to Ryan H'.s salient tweet about the jet structures potentially coupling with the vestigial mechanics. This most recent run seems to have additional isobars (along standard intervals) added as it is absorbing into the large cyclonic envelopment over the N OV...and it's difficult to see that as being tropical in nature for what is forcing that, once this thing is passing NYC's ~ latitude. It seems it is getting an assist in "re" or depth maintenance as it accelerates N of the Del Marva here during the afternoon - going by the 00z run... I don't see another reason for that ... If it wasn't for that, this would probably decouple from the lower troposphere below a weakening threshold and pressure pattern normalizing below restoration's ability to overcome the BL resistance much more than 10 mi inland from the coast(s). And it'd be TS warning with 20mph breezes and heavily tilted Bahama towers.. So...what is fascinating here is that this may end up producing a synoptic wind pulse from that idiosyncrasy alone, but not "really" be a TC at that time. Here's a forecast, cloudy with a 90% chance of misconception of what is really being experienced, in lieu of this din of oohs and ahs ...where if you try to cut in and explain the truth, everyone blink twice, turns around and re-engages the oohs and ahs.. Dumbing down and translating this to English I think you are saying these crazy winds will probably not happen up here to any great extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Ryan posted the OKX sounding at 12 Z. That is pretty nuts for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I do think the threat is real in SW CT for sure. Lovely....I wanted 6 inches of rain, not tornadoes.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ryan posted the OKX sounding at 12 Z. That is pretty nuts for NYC. Hazel had a gust of 113 in NYC. Similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: May have another tor around Brattleboro There’s the warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 There are is a plethora of 'plausible' behaviors as this thing rotates up and absorbed into the eastern Lakes trough axis this evening. A narrow region east of roughly VT/CT could average between light to moderate breezes for a couple .. three hours, with a few rotators triggering warnings whisking through, but the pressure pattern weakens as it is pulling away and when that happens ( Irene did that) the air suddenly deadens eerily calm, ..7 to 9 pm, with a putrid 78 DP hanging in an air mass that feels metallic.. I-95 may be too far east for anything ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Lovely....I wanted 6 inches of rain, not tornadoes.... We do spinners very well in wct. Everything else is marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We do spinners very well in wct. Everything else is marginal at best. That’s like being the tallest little person in the midget basketball league. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 I wonder if the current tor warned cells are really mechanically a part of the TC's approach ... There is a book end front in the area, one more typically found in the lower mid Atlantic climo ...and I noticed that these cells appeared to trip the warnings as they crossed over that boundary, where the frontal induced helicity is likely enhanced... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Need some advice from the Mets please. The Euro has been consistent in bringing a core of very strong gusts through the NW Lakes Region of NH. It actually intensifies the core as it moves north just east of the Conn Valley. Im at a high elevation with a south exposure. I rarely gust over 40 and my all time high in a winter cold front is 61mph. That did a lot of damage. Is this core of winds even remotely possible. Euro says 80-90mph gusts. I don't believe that but even 60 would be very strong I think it is possible at your elevation. You basically need to mix, so note I said "possible." That's the difference between 40 and 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 930am 68/65 Light rain calm wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 35 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Maybe some new trails at Berkshire East? Ha, I just rode the lift there last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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