Hurricane Isaias

[Hoth]

16 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Fueled mine up yesterday and ran it for a bit.  Gonna be some serious power outages in southern CT.

Yep. This looks legit. Those flight level winds on the SE side are eye opening.

[JC-CT]

This sucks. I'm supposed to have a guy take down some trees in my yard that I've been waiting all summer for and now he's probably going to be busy with this sht.

Plus, my damn tomatoes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NHC did a special advisory. Up to 85 mph

Man, looks like I had this one nailed.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, looks like I had this one nailed.

Well played, Ray.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, looks like I had this one nailed.

What was your call?

[Go Kart Mozart]

As the owner of an insurance agency in Westport, I can tell you this sucks.  Reminds me of Irene, which really pounded my clients in Ridgefield.  Well inland, but many of the ridges poke up over 700'.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, Hazey said:

110mph. Not bad.


#NovaScotiaStrong

It's sad I had to google the meter per second to miles per hour conversion... sometimes you forget what the rest of the world uses, ha. 

That's a solid velocity scan!

[Hoth]

No Tropical Tidbit for tonight. Bummer.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What was your call?

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-isaias-threatens-fl-and.html?m=1

Cat 2 near Carolinas!  Well done

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

No Tropical Tidbit for tonight. Bummer.

whats wrong with tropical *******? works for me

[Go Kart Mozart]

Is it just me, or is this tracking a tad rightward of projections?

[Hoth]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

whats wrong with tropical *******? works for me

I was referring to Levi's nightly video. The site is working fine.

[TalcottWx]

Nice call Ray 

[TheSnowman]

18 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This sucks. I'm supposed to have a guy take down some trees in my yard that I've been waiting all summer for and now he's probably going to be busy with this sht.

Plus, my damn tomatoes.

Well I'll PRAY you RETHINK that and decline the idea.  Especially if they're older and big.  I'll never understand the cutting of trees.  

 

Back to the Hurricane.  

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Wilmington, NC region needs to be on high alert, dangerous winds coming ashore and convection developing in that band.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

whats wrong with tropical *******? works for me

I'm trying to figure out why the forum software blocked that out, ha.  What'd your phone auto-correct?

[CoastalWx]

Good call then Ray. Making a run. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Is this a Cat 2.  Last I saw was 85mph.  96mph is threshold for Cat 2.

[Dan]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Is this a Cat 2.  Last I saw was 85mph.  96mph is threshold for Cat 2.

I was thinking the same thing, this is still a Cat 1.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Is this a Cat 2.  Last I saw was 85mph.  96mph is threshold for Cat 2.

It is really close.

[dryslot]

Its not a cat 2.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What was your call?

I said it would weaken to a TS an remain just offshore, FL before turning N and intensifying back to cat 1 near cat 2 with LF between NC/SC border and Wilmington early Tuesday.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Is this a Cat 2.  Last I saw was 85mph.  96mph is threshold for Cat 2.

It’s not.. weenies getting a little carried away in here. Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades 

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Is this a Cat 2.  Last I saw was 85mph.  96mph is threshold for Cat 2.

Cat 1, there was flight data earlier borderline cat 2. Which led to the confusion. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its not a cat 2.

Ya, but if we all fart hard enough...

[JC-CT]

10 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Well I'll PRAY you RETHINK that and decline the idea.  Especially if they're older and big.  I'll never understand the cutting of trees.  

 

Back to the Hurricane.  

I will let you know if your prayers work.

[snowman21]

Those T-storms in SW CT mean business.

[CoastalWx]

Nam looks pretty dam windy tomorrow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

First Call Late Friday/early Saturday:

AUG

1

 

 

Hurricane Isaias Threatens FL and Carolinas: First Call

Precise Track of Isaias Crucial to Intensity Forecast

 

Current Status: 

Per the 8/1 2am update from the National Hurricane Center, the ill defined eye of Hurricane Isaias was located about 90mi SSE of Nassau in the Bahama islands and is continuing to decelerate towards the NW at 15mph with max sustained winds of 85mph. 

 

 

Obviously the system is headed towards Miami at the moment, and anyone who has not either recently awakened from a coma, or had their head buried in the sand knows that a hurricane is the last thing that the covid stricken state of Florida needs right now. Alas, ask mother nature if she cares. The answer to that rhetorical question is obvious, but real million dollar is question is whether or not Isaias will actually get to Florida. While the general track is very high confidence at this juncture, the precise path is more uncertain and of course, of utmost importance. It often works out that way in meteorology, as its the most difficult to forecast, subtle nuances that end up making all of the difference, and the future track of Isaias is no different.

The devil in in the details-

 

Isaias Forecast Track:

What we know is that the hurricane is going to turn more towards the north as it approaches the coast, which is a direct result of the energy associated with the system being channeled up the coast between an anomalously deep trough to the west, and a potent west atlantic ridge to the east.

7AM Monday:

 

 

What we are less confident of is whether or not the system actually makes landfall on the Florida peninsula.  This is a very challenging forecast given the timing of the anticipated turn and the concave nature of the coast, which is a dilemma also faced by forecasters with respect to Hurricane Dorian last season. Obviously the stakes are not quite as high because this is not nearly as a powerful of a system, but they are plenty high enough.

Here is some of the latest guidance and the trend from our first update approximately 48 hours ago.

 

Wednesday Night guidance (Left) and Friday Night (Right)

 

Clearly, as one would expect, the cone of uncertainty with respect to the various forecasting models has decreased. What is has become clear since Wednesday night is that a path out to sea with no direct impact to the US is very unlikely. Since the odds of Isaias moving over much of Florida, or even making landfall on Florida, have also decreased, a stronger landfall is now more likely to the north. Eastern Mass Weather opined on Wednesday night that landfall in Florida was unlikely, and that the most probable area for landfall would be in North Carolina and our position on that has not changed, nor is it likely to.

The European (Right) and British (Left) ensemble suites from Friday corroborate this trend.

 

 

 

 

 In summary,  both the severity of the impact on the already reeling state of Florida, and the intensity of Isaias as it moves up the coast will be heavily modulated by how much it interacts with the state of Florida. If it moves bodily up the state of Florida, which is increasingly unlikely, impacts up the coast will be greatly reduced due to toll that the increased land interaction will have on the system. If it brushes the coast, or remains offshore of Florida, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather, it will be a stronger system as it approaches the Carolinas, or even perhaps long island. How strong is another challenging question.

 

Isaias Intensity Forecast:

Isaias has largely maintained its intensity over the course of the past 24 hours, although fluctuation have been  noted, as is usually the case. There is plenty of energy available in the waters around the Bahama islands, in fact, probably even more so than Hurricane Dorian encountered last season.  However, we are not observing the explosive intensification that we did with regard to Dorian because the system continues to encounter some wind shear. This is illustrated in the graphic below:

 

 

 

The shear is also evident in the current satellite imagery, as outflow is clear somewhat restricted the western semicircle of the storm.

 

 

Note also in the previous image above the that shear will increase near the Florida coast during the day on Saturday through Sunday, when some weakening of Isaias is likely and it could even be downgraded to a tropical storm at some point. However, the system is likely to encounter a lull in wind shear during the day on Monday, as Hurricane Isaias crosses the very warm waters of the gulf stream and approaches North Carolina.

 

 

 

This means that Hurricane Isaias could perhaps be approaching category two intensity when it makes landfall in North Carolina, after weakening and brushing the Florida coast in the vicinity of West Palm Beach or Port St. Lucie.

Final Call will be issued Saturday night.

 

First Call:

 

Cape Fear, NC is our First Call target.

[dendrite]

Yikes