Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 9:27 PM, WinterWolf said: Ryan’s forecast looks nothing Like you just outlined...but that’s par for the course, you’re in your own extreme weather world lol. Hope it verifies the way you hope? Expand Yes it does. He’s got tor threat early AM. Strong winds 4-10 pm with tors possible in between . Not sure what you mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 9:32 PM, dendrite said: Maybe even wreckhouse winds at some point? Expand https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1290379321073455104?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Kev, He said tornado threat on the first outer bands from the storm. He also said an hour or two at most for the big winds. And he didn’t say anything about a sting jet providing another round of strong winds. You twist and contort his words to your liking...that’s what you do with every storm. But whatever. Believe your own ideas of what it is!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 18z NAM BDL at 8:00 AM. CAPE continue to looking very impressive. Def have to wonder if we see an upgrade to an enhanced risk...maybe even see wind probs of 30% if signal for convection persists 3:00 PM lapse rates (3:00 PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 9:36 PM, Damage In Tolland said: https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1290379321073455104?s=21 Expand Nice. Now you live in NJ too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 9:46 PM, dendrite said: Nice. Now you live in NJ too. Expand I guess He’s everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 9:46 PM, dendrite said: Nice. Now you live in NJ too. Expand It’s a stinger all around the backside. Thought you were a met? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 DIT sourcing all of the former board members he used to troll. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Man, doing a tropical update is kind of like wrestling a bear. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Buoy down to 991mb with tropical storm winds still.. got to be down into the 980's now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 KeviShader @KeviShader · 11m A buoy in the eye of #Isaias recently reported a pressure of ~991mb with 10m winds of 39kts, which roughly equates to a central pressure of 987mb. While recon should sample the storm in an hour, this gives us a rough idea on how strong the system currently is. #Hurricane Show this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 10:31 PM, ineedsnow said: KeviShader @KeviShader · 11m A buoy in the eye of #Isaias recently reported a pressure of ~991mb with 10m winds of 39kts, which roughly equates to a central pressure of 987mb. While recon should sample the storm in an hour, this gives us a rough idea on how strong the system currently is. #Hurricane Show this thread Expand Buoy down to 989 now w/15kt wind. Also suggests 987 mb right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 10:31 PM, ineedsnow said: KeviShader @KeviShader · 11m A buoy in the eye of #Isaias recently reported a pressure of ~991mb with 10m winds of 39kts, which roughly equates to a central pressure of 987mb. While recon should sample the storm in an hour, this gives us a rough idea on how strong the system currently is. #Hurricane Show this thread Expand What an awful Twitter name lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Let's 10% TOR this tomorrow. Hey Alex, I'll take ENH for $1000 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 10:56 PM, weatherwiz said: Let's 10% TOR this tomorrow. Hey Alex, I'll take ENH for $1000 Expand I can't recall too many ENH with tropical systems. I wouldn't be on it, unless the 00z HREF comes in hot. It's especially tough because this is essentially tornado driven. Would need a 10% in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Funny talking with others about this system. Neighbors when out walking the dog and friends I saw at the grocery store all said some wind and rain tomorrow afternoon according to the news. Hopefully there are lots of surprises given how the last "Tropical Storm" went. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 10:59 PM, OceanStWx said: I can't recall too many ENH with tropical systems. I wouldn't be on it, unless the 00z HREF comes in hot. It's especially tough because this is essentially tornado driven. Would need a 10% in there. Expand I can only recall a couple times over the past several years where it's happened. I think it actually may have occurred last season? Maybe it was with Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 10:59 PM, OceanStWx said: I can't recall too many ENH with tropical systems. I wouldn't be on it, unless the 00z HREF comes in hot. It's especially tough because this is essentially tornado driven. Would need a 10% in there. Expand I don’t get the obsession with that model. All you NWS guys base forecasts on it. BOX mentions it all the time. It’s just another tool 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I'm clearly no met, but I thought we had an enhanced level for that May 15th line but have a ton more CAPE now. One lingering thought (worry) I keep having though is why is the NAM so calm when it should be off the wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 10:59 PM, PowderBeard said: Funny talking with others about this system. Neighbors when out walking the dog and friends I saw at the grocery store all said some wind and rain tomorrow afternoon according to the news. Hopefully there are lots of surprises given how the last "Tropical Storm" went. Expand Most "Tropical Storms" around here are ET-transitioning systems curving away from Cape Cod which give rain and really no wind to speak of. Even though this will not a strong storm at landfall down south, the track of Isaias combined with the jet enhancement at least make it a bit more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 11:06 PM, PowderBeard said: I'm clearly no met, but I thought we had an enhanced level for that May 15th line but have a ton more CAPE now. One lingering thought (worry) I keep having though is why is the NAM so calm when it should be off the wall? Expand yes but we're talking about with tropical...it's exceedingly rare to get a ENH with a tropical system b/c the main threat is tornadoes and you would need a 10% TOR contour to get ENH and that doesn't happen very often 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 11:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t get the obsession with that model. All you NWS guys base forecasts on it. BOX mentions it all the time. It’s just another tool Expand Because it’s a good tool that uses not only multiple convection allowing models, but it also has a time lagged feature that uses older runs too. That way you don’t knee jerk to the “newest” solution. The latest solution isn’t always the most accurate. So, you get a nice feel usually to what may happen. It’s not always perfect though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 No model is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 11:16 PM, dryslot said: No model is perfect. Expand It’s a scooter’ism , he likes going out on limbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 11:18 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a scooter’ism saying something but not really Expand Talking but saying nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 11:12 PM, CoastalWx said: Because it’s a good tool that uses not only multiple convection allowing models, but it also has a time lagged feature that uses older runs too. That way you don’t knee jerk to the “newest” solution. The latest solution isn’t always the most accurate. So, you get a nice feel usually to what may happen. It’s not always perfect though. Expand I know. But I see Box use it as their main tool for forecasts. Every severe event or rain event, they tweet about it and mention it in all AFD’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 11:12 PM, CoastalWx said: Because it’s a good tool that uses not only multiple convection allowing models, but it also has a time lagged feature that uses older runs too. That way you don’t knee jerk to the “newest” solution. The latest solution isn’t always the most accurate. So, you get a nice feel usually to what may happen. It’s not always perfect though. Expand On 8/3/2020 at 11:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t get the obsession with that model. All you NWS guys base forecasts on it. BOX mentions it all the time. It’s just another tool Expand Yeah you should listen to Scoots, the HREF has a very good verification track record. They are finding that having multiple model cores in there may actually improve its results over single core ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 Recon 985.5 if Im reading it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 well recon's first pass was impressive...hurricane force winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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