wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I think this could be an over achiever Discuss.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just saw on the tropical thread on the main board that no recon going in till 730pm? That seems nuts with a 5pm important advisory coming out as it approaches the east coast and seems to be getting it's act together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 7:26 PM, wxeyeNH said: Just saw on the tropical thread on the main board that no recon going in till 730pm? That seems nuts with a 5pm important advisory coming out as it approaches the east coast and seems to be getting it's act together. Expand nap time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 7:26 PM, Bostonseminole said: nap time? Expand They knew this afternoon would be the critical period, would it get it's act together at the last moment as some models suggested so just wonder how they can have a 4-6 hour gap at the most important time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Convection has been flaring up all afternoon, Its sh it or get off the pot time now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Fun now cast. Will be interesting to see what happens as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Wow. Check out the line blowing north through the mid atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 It’s much better now in the last hour. Should be intensifying from here until landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 7:48 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I really want it to close off fully but I like what I see on the western side of the center. Expand Eye is a little larger now it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Good thing this is in and out in a hurry limiting the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Hrrr weenie gusts are nasty in western CT. Keeps core intact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 7:28 PM, wxeyeNH said: They knew this afternoon would be the critical period, would it get it's act together at the last moment as some models suggested so just wonder how they can have a 4-6 hour gap at the most important time? Expand Maybe because it's so close to land? It'll make landfall in about 5 hours, and it's within radar range and passing over buoys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 7:54 PM, CoastalWx said: Hrrr weenie gusts are nasty in western CT. Keeps core intact. Expand Actually has some decent TOR potential well into NH and even parts of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 If it is upgraded at 5pm to a hurricane (which would be my guess) can they super impose a hurricane watch over a tropical storm warning for areas up the coast? Don't know if that can be done? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 7:54 PM, CoastalWx said: Hrrr weenie gusts are nasty in western CT. Keeps core intact. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:07 PM, Ginx snewx said: Expand That’s very impressive for sure...wonder if it actually verify’s? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:09 PM, WinterWolf said: That’s very impressive for sure...wonder if it actually verify’s? Expand If that were actually to verify it would make Isaias a very big deal. A 55-80mph gust area this large would bring a huge amount of power problems. Unlike so many storms where the hype far exceeds the harm this could be reversed. Usually we have a decaying slow moving TC coming up the coast or interacting with a September airmass. This would be an intensifying storm with a trough yanking it poleward and going west of New England. Maybe my weenism is getting hold of me this afternoon. Hold on for quite a ride over the next 36 hours!?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:09 PM, WinterWolf said: That’s very impressive for sure...wonder if it actually verify’s? Expand Even a 15% reduction is damage. Keep it west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3K NAM much more tamer compared to hrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:09 PM, WinterWolf said: That’s very impressive for sure...wonder if it actually verify’s? Expand That’s awfully high. I don’t think it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Plan on 50-60 mph with severe gusts to 70 in CT. If you plan on that you won’t be disappointed if you are buying on the 70-90 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:20 PM, CoastalWx said: 3K NAM much more tamer compared to hrrr. Expand I’ve been noticing even the NAM is like 30 knots less with the LLJ than the euro. If the euro verified, even I would admit that there is some decent wind potential away from the south coast, but the solutions with like 65-70kt at 850 are kind of meh for interior outside of some rogue gusts in cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:21 PM, CoastalWx said: That’s awfully high. I don’t think it verifies. Expand Ya, no way that is gonna happen I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:06 PM, wxeyeNH said: If it is upgraded at 5pm to a hurricane (which would be my guess) can they super impose a hurricane watch over a tropical storm warning for areas up the coast? Don't know if that can be done? Expand Yes it can be done. You will see it on the NHC warning/cone map as a pink line (hurricane watch) within the blue line (tropical storm warning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: I’ve been noticing even the NAM is like 30 knots less with the LLJ than the euro. If the euro verified, even I would admit that there is some decent wind potential away from the south coast, but the solutions with like 65-70kt at 850 are kind of meh for interior outside of some rogue gusts in cells. Expand What's sort of interesting about this storm in general is that decent mixing in the boundary layer is progged. Very rare to see on a southerly flow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:34 PM, CT Rain said: What's sort of interesting about this storm in general is that decent mixing in the boundary layer is progged. Very rare to see on a southerly flow event. Expand But what do you think the odds are that that actually verifies as progged? Pretty low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Fuel up the generators in ct and up to w MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 8:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: I’ve been noticing even the NAM is like 30 knots less with the LLJ than the euro. If the euro verified, even I would admit that there is some decent wind potential away from the south coast, but the solutions with like 65-70kt at 850 are kind of meh for interior outside of some rogue gusts in cells. Expand Some of those models intensify this a bit too over land, giving those solutions. I guess if that occurs, it’s possible along with the mixing. I’m just not sure of the high end stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now