The 2020-2021 Ski season thread

[powderfreak]

If the ski season followed actual best climo winter snowpack here, Stowe would open like December 15 to May 1 or even later sometimes lol.  Not try for November 15 to April 15 where the max demand curve falls.  We almost always close 100% of terrain skiable as the skiers evaporate.

[PhineasC]

42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Lots of pent up demand.  More people skiing one or two ribbons of white now than there will be at the end of March or April with 100” at the Mansfield stake and 100% open.

Folks are jonesing... drive 3 hours from Boston for two routes of snowmaking this time of year in drizzle/mist but then in late March when the grass is starting to green up at their house (it’s light out until 7pm) and some start talking about installing A/C units in CT, they’ll give it up despite 100% open ski hills.

Its something they ski industry has struggled with for decades.  It’s just how the demand works, so that’s why ski areas push so hard to open in mid/late Nov to capitalize on that demand.

Hell that’s how I grew up in Albany, NY... my parents would take us in the dark days of November and December but as spring moved out we’d transition to spring sports in the Hudson Valley despite deep packs up north and great skiing.

Yep, same thing with the beaches in the MD area. Everyone rushes out on Memorial Day to jump in 62 degree ocean water, but come late September when ocean temps can be in the mid-70s or more they are like “no thanks, it’s time for pumpkin spice now.”

[bwt3650]

Opening day.  Snow was in great shape considering the temps.  Felt great to be back on snow.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, same thing with the beaches in the MD area. Everyone rushes out on Memorial Day to jump in 62 degree ocean water, but come late September when ocean temps can be in the mid-70s or more they are like “no thanks, it’s time for pumpkin spice now.”

Yeah it’s the DIT seasonal line of thinking.  Spring weather should start late Feb or March 1st, full summer should start in May, and winter is Nov/Dec/Jan.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My cousin was at Stowe for opening day, was even Interviewed on Channel 5, No icy death ribbons with the N greens Natural snow making machine on blast Wednesday.

Yeah openiong day was fine I'm sure because of the timing of the upslope...I'm talking about in general though early on...lots of thaw and refreeze the next 10 days = icy death ribbons

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

If the ski season followed actual best climo winter snowpack here, Stowe would open like December 15 to May 1 or even later sometimes lol.  Not try for November 15 to April 15 where the max demand curve falls.  We almost always close 100% of terrain skiable as the skiers evaporate.

For selfish reasons, I'm always happy that most people do not follow the Ginxy/ORH_wxman school of thought when it comes to skiing.....ski hard in March. Usually the best conditions of the season are in March at most places. The bonus is that you also are less likely to be in 0F temps with the sun struggling to stay above the horizon at 3pm like you get in late December and January.

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I understand there is publicity in being first but the weather looks really bleak for NNE until this time next week.

 

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta get those runs in on the icy death ribbons.

This is why I rarely ski in early season. Even when there is a big snowstorm in early season, the pent up demand usually makes it hard to avoid big crowds unless I play hooky and go during a weekday.

But I'm guessing things will be rocking pretty good by Xmas week up in the ski areas if the ensembles are correct. Looks like a pretty good 2-3 week period coming up post-12/5.

In terms of the bleak weather, this is still very much a typical November routine, even if it feels like things are heading backwards after having snow and colder temperatures.  That’s how average Novembers go though, even up here in the northern mountains.  There are going to be rounds of snow and then rain again unless you’re in one of those Novembers where things just happen to lock in with consistent below average temperatures.  I’m not sure on the exact percentages, but I’d say the cold locking on from some point in the month onward is probably somewhere in the top third to half of Novembers around here.  But PF can tell you, a few days of warm temperatures is not really going to take out whatever manmade snow Stowe put down.  That stuff is glacier dense, and unless they made the absolute minimum required to squeak by with an opening, it’s not going anywhere.  They’ll naturally turn the guns again as soon as temperatures come back down and bolster any spots that need it.

For December, getting consistent cold to start at some point in the month is much more typical.  December of course can see-saw like November, but it’s much less common and I’d say if you’ve got big temperature see-saw action in December, you’re talking about a month that is definitely in the bottom half of Decembers for ski weather quality.  That doesn’t mean you can’t have the rogue storm with rain in a typical December, but constant back and forth with lots of freeze-thaw is definitely in the “below” average category for quality.

I’m with Will on skiing early season, at least with respect to the option of riding ribbons of manmade snow.  I’m always happy to head out for early days if Mother Nature has put down enough to make skiing away from the ribbons viable, but between the bad snow that’s gone through freeze-thaw cycles, the danger of too many people packed onto too little terrain, and the snow guns potentially even blasting while you’re out there, it’s just not typically a great experience.  The warm days (preferably minus any rain) in these cycles are actually where I’d ski if I was going to.  The snow softens up, and it can be quite nice, just like spring.  This time of year, everyone is chomping at the bit to get going, and it’s often those fast, hard-charging folks that are out there early (especially at Stowe), so you’re not too likely to get much peace and solitude at the start of the day.  If I was to go, I’d probably pop up for the last hour or two of the day when most folks are done – you can definitely get some space on the trails once people have packed it in for the day, and on spring snow days, end-of-the-day conditions aren’t really as much of a factor as they are on winter groomer or powder days.

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah openiong day was fine I'm sure because of the timing of the upslope...I'm talking about in general though early on...lots of thaw and refreeze the next 10 days = icy death ribbons

Today is pretty miserable in all aspects.  No visibility, low clouds even in the base area at times, sheet drizzle and mist... now is a more steady light rain at 1500ft and non-accumulating white rain or wet snow above 2500ft.  Moist and no visibility.

[mreaves]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Today is pretty miserable in all aspects.  No visibility, low clouds even in the base area at times, sheet drizzle and mist... now is a more steady light rain at 1500ft and non-accumulating white rain or wet snow above 2500ft.  Moist and no visibility.

Pretty easy day to stay quarantined. 

[powderfreak]

Ha yeah @J.Spin, the warm thaw days are actually the days to ski in this pattern.  If it’s not going to snow the worst days are the cold/firm ones.  I’ll take some soft snow and low crowd at like 2pm in the afternoon for some laps.  

[qg_omega]

Two big rain storms next week for the mountains on the models

[qg_omega]

985 low over NJ on December 5th, you would think big snows in the mountains or not

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Two big rain storms next week for the mountains on the models

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol at GFS, one can dream

[bwt3650]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

lol at GFS, one can dream

Because both have a 95 percent accuracy 200 plus hours out?

[PhineasC]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Two big rain storms next week for the mountains on the models

Mon/Tue is clearly a lost cause, but the storm around the 5th is not a lost cause for NNE yet. It takes a better track at least and wouldn’t need to shift 1000 miles to be really good. 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Because both have a 95 percent accuracy 200 plus hours out?

Yeah I mean, anything is possible, no storm at all is likely the usual outcome at 200 hours out.

Not a slam dunk heavy rainer at day 8-9.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Shut em down!!!

[Skivt2]

20 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Today is pretty miserable in all aspects.  No visibility, low clouds even in the base area at times, sheet drizzle and mist... now is a more steady light rain at 1500ft and non-accumulating white rain or wet snow above 2500ft.  Moist and no visibility.

Yesterday was actually pretty nice.  No crowds.  Only mist so soaking through did not happen during the couple hours we skied.  Snow surface was hero snow.  All and all it was a pleasant relaxing and fun experience. We actually were out early.  But normally we do go out for the last few hours of the day.

[qg_omega]

Any recommendations on a face mask with some protection?

[Skivt2]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Any recommendations on a face mask with some protection?

Everyone is struggling with this right now.  If someone can come up with the perfect skiing COVID face mask quickly they could make some $ if they can get the word out fast.

[Flying MXZ]

Pretty sweet “ribbon of death” on Hunter today. West side looking even worse. 

[snowgeek]

Any recommendations on a face mask with some protection?

https://buffusa.com/filter-tube


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[snowgeek]

https://buffusa.com/filter-tube

 

 

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No early season for me. Wife just tested positive and I also threw my back out yesterday.

 

 

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[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, snowgeek said:

No early season for me. Wife just tested positive and I also threw my back out yesterday.

 

 

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Hope she gets a real mild case of it, which probabilities show she should but still not something you want to play around with.

You won't be missing much over the next 10 days in Ski Country, ha.

[powderfreak]

Ended up with a couple inches of snow above mid-mountain this afternoon to give it a wintry vibe up there.  Lower mountain was spring like mashed potatoes and soft bumps.  2.5 ways down right now... 3 upper mountain that funnel to 2 routes lower half (plus a few beginner lifts and trails over at Spruce).  Full on bump runs this afternoon from the soft snow and traffic.

Not time to "Shut 'em Down" yet up here.  We'll see after a couple rainers, ha! 

[snowgeek]

Ended up with a couple inches of snow above mid-mountain this afternoon to give it a wintry vibe up there.  Lower mountain was spring like mashed potatoes and soft bumps.  2.5 ways down right now... 3 upper mountain that funnel to 2 routes lower half (plus a few beginner lifts and trails over at Spruce).  Full on bump runs this afternoon from the soft snow and traffic.
Not time to "Shut 'em Down" yet up here.  We'll see after a couple rainers, ha! 

Looks good! Can’t wait to get out there. Hopefully not too much warm rain coming. Let’s hope the base holds up and they don’t have to start over. Gore and Whiteface are planning on Friday but I bet it gets pushed back.


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[zeepowderhunter]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ended up with a couple inches of snow above mid-mountain this afternoon to give it a wintry vibe up there.  Lower mountain was spring like mashed potatoes and soft bumps.  2.5 ways down right now... 3 upper mountain that funnel to 2 routes lower half (plus a few beginner lifts and trails over at Spruce).  Full on bump runs this afternoon from the soft snow and traffic.

Not time to "Shut 'em Down" yet up here.  We'll see after a couple rainers, ha! 

Hey freak,  are those shifts on your boards?

[Skivt2]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ended up with a couple inches of snow above mid-mountain this afternoon to give it a wintry vibe up there.  Lower mountain was spring like mashed potatoes and soft bumps.  2.5 ways down right now... 3 upper mountain that funnel to 2 routes lower half (plus a few beginner lifts and trails over at Spruce).  Full on bump runs this afternoon from the soft snow and traffic.

Not time to "Shut 'em Down" yet up here.  We'll see after a couple rainers, ha! 

Awesome soft slushy bumps this afternoon at the Big K.  Snowed big flakes off and on all afternoon above 2k feet.

[powderfreak]

10 hours ago, zeepowderhunter said:

Hey freak,  are those shifts on your boards?

That’s my buddy Dylan, but yeah I think he’s got shifts for bindings.