August Discobs 2020

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro looks fairly active starting Wednesday through end of run . 

GFS looked pretty wet late week into next weekend.

[CAPE]

From Mount Holly AFD-

Cold front slowly approaches during the week and will move into the region by Thursday. Models seem to indicate that the front will become nearly stationary over the area at the end of the week. If that happens, there could be a prolonged period of wet weather to close out the week as multiple rounds of convection would develop as a series of weak low pressure systems develop and ride along the front. With high dew points into the end of the week (generally low 70s), heavy rain should be a threat.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The lowering sun angle is becoming more noticeable now. The mid day full sun area is shrinking, and more of the yard is shaded/filtered by trees longer.

 

This is always a cool time IMO. Right around Aug 5 the sun starts racing down. Once you get 45 days past solstice this happens, reverse in winter of course. There’s math involved in the explanation but to shorten it, the sun will now go down about a degree every three days where it was taking about 10. Does this until early November.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I would prefer a few sunny days at this point if anyone can make that happen.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is always a cool time IMO. Right around Aug 5 the sun starts racing down. Once you get 45 days past solstice this happens, reverse in winter of course. There’s math involved in the explanation but to shorten it, the sun will now go down about a degree every three days where it was taking about 10. Does this until early November.

Yes. This makes me happy.

And today I have begun to prep for reseeding my burnt lawn. First batch of seed should go down tomorrow morning.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yes. This makes me happy.

And today I have begun to prep for reseeding my burnt lawn. First batch of seed should go down tomorrow morning.

Don’t forget to fertilize it. New seed needs it.

[CAPE]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t forget to fertilize it. New seed needs it.

Got it covered. Check out my post in the lawn/garden/pool thread.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Anyone see this? 1.03” of rain in 5 minutes  
 

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/

Yes it was posted a page back. Incredible though.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Anyone see this? 1.03” of rain in 5 minutes  
 

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/

Dan leathers (state climatologist) was my favorite professor in undergrad.  Great guy. 

[NorthArlington101]

Anyone feel an earthquake? I didn’t in Arlington, but my friends down in Charlottesville did. Looking on Twitter it looks like it was probably down in the Carolinas.

[NoVaWx]

https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2020-08-09-12-07-37-utc-5-1-5

 

Didnt feel or here anything in nova

[BlizzardNole]

14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Anyone see this? 1.03” of rain in 5 minutes  
 

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/

Amazing.  Imagine what that looked like coming down.  I remember hearing about the unbelievable rain that Maria dropped in this town in Puerto Rico, including 40 inches in 24 hours.

Hurricane Maria dropped 14 inches in one hour on Caguas, Puerto Rico

[Jrlg1181]

Check out the Staunton flooding last night...  5 + inches... roads became legit rivers , videos show a mess... I am 8 miles away never saw anything but lightning..

[Stormfly]

35 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Amazing.  Imagine what that looked like coming down.  I remember hearing about the unbelievable rain that Maria dropped in this town in Puerto Rico, including 40 inches in 24 hours.

Hurricane Maria dropped 14 inches in one hour on Caguas, Puerto Rico

Yes I can!

I had an emergency due to severe flooding on July 14, 2000. This was just east of Baltimore.

The home's sump pump was overwhelmed (later found out it was due to "monkey balls" from those sycamore trees!)  In any case I was standing in ankle deep water in a large pit rigging a gas powered pump (3") to get rid of this water when out of nowhere I started getting pelted with spiky ping pong ball sized hail!  Man those hurt!  And the wind kicked up and their privacy fence was waving like a flag.  Thought that was it.  We got like 8" of rain in 45 minutes.  TINY cell right over our neighborhood.  My adrenaline was pumping almost as hard as that Hale pump!

[peribonca]

A bit of training over the central part of the district right now

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, peribonca said:

A bit of training over the central part of the district right now

The ground crew troubles are a riot.

[Disc]

7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Anyone feel an earthquake? I didn’t in Arlington, but my friends down in Charlottesville did. Looking on Twitter it looks like it was probably down in the Carolinas.

Only about 50 miles from the epicenter here, but slept right thru it. There was some good shaking here from what I heard though.

[Stormfly]

When I saw news of the earthquake I instantly thought of the one in 2011 which was a 5.9 in Mineral VA.  We certainly DID feel that one!

Today's temblor southeast of Sparta was shallow and while most say the shaking lasted about 15 seconds or so wasn't present here in northern MD.  We have vibration sensors that would definitely register anything that I could feel and don't see anything logged around 0807 today.

I'm not a fan of something that can literally take out your home with no warning whatsoever.  Even though we don't expect these things, 2011 was a perfect example.  And just two days later we were tracking Irene which was a high impact event.  Unlike the weather which we can prepare for, seismic provides no such warning.

[Kmlwx]

We've settled into a bit of a boring stretch post-tropical - other than some pop up shower/storms here and there. 

@losetoa6 - let's see if the supposed active pattern can net us something more than a MRGL risk day. 

All eyes on the tropics too in the coming weeks to see if they wake back up. Getting two tropical systems to impact the area in one season would be pretty sweet. Actually - let's just go big - 5 or bust. 

[nw baltimore wx]

4 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps has temps below normal starting Thursday through end of run along with being a active weather period. Sounds good to me. 

I didn’t look today, but the gfs yesterday looked good in the long range too. Maybe not below normal but anything near the 20 year normal is pretty much below normal as far as I’m concerned.

[Inverted_Trough]

7 consecutive days, and 9 out of the last 10 days, were below 90 at DCA.  In peak summer and during our anthropocene climate period -- that's a difficult feat, indeed.  Maybe almost as difficult to accomplish as our 20 day 90 degree streak!

Looks like we'll have a couple days of 90+.  But then we might go another extended period of temps below 90.  

If we manage the rest of the summer with just a handful of 90s, this summer might be remembered as just a six week stretch of heat.

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I didn’t look today, but the gfs yesterday looked good in the long range too. Maybe not below normal but anything near the 20 year normal is pretty much below normal as far as I’m concerned.

Before we get to la la land, guidance is in general agreement for a potentially active/ wet period upcoming. 

Slow moving/stalled front, daytime heating, ul perturbations moving along. and generally high pwat.

Its gonna feel uncomfortable for awhile with high dews, although later in the week/weekend temps should be mostly in the mid 80s. The air mass doesn't look 'refreshing' though lol. Typical August stuff.

[CAPE]

[wxdude64]

First day in 11 without measurable here. 

[adelphi_sky]

H3. Bone dry. Missed rain on both Saturday and Sunday. 

[H2O]

its just disgusting outside.  Gonna be hot and its already muggy af

[Ajb]

There's always a lot of talk about temp records, but I can't remember this many days with dews in the seventies. Is anyone keeping track of records along those lines?

[MN Transplant]

PWATs over 2" from Thursday through Sunday via the 06z GFS.  

[Ian]

1 hour ago, Ajb said:

There's always a lot of talk about temp records, but I can't remember this many days with dews in the seventies. Is anyone keeping track of records along those lines?

dew point records are tricky to come by tho worth looking into 

[George BM]

Northern Illinois EarthCam chase anyone?

SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Iowa
     Northern Illinois
     Far northwest Indiana
     Far southern Wisconsin
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
     700 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100
       mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A couple tornadoes possible

   SUMMARY...A derecho will rapidly progress across eastern Iowa and
   northern Illinois this afternoon. Widespread severe wind gusts, some
   of which should reach 80-100 mph are anticipated along the track of
   the bow. Brief tornadoes are also possible.