Tropical Depression Ten

[thunderman]

NHC initiated advisories on the Verde system at 8PM.  Forecasted to become Josephine tonight or tomorrow.

Initial intensity is set at 30 KT and 1007 MB

[yoda]

Sounds like no to being named 

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its 
northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though 
cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass 
near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided 
with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time, 
indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid 
about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt, 
also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the 
east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the 
highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between 
25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is 
possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds 
at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since 
00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is 
moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is 
expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre. 
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and 
the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate 
later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding 
environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the 
TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly 
from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 17.1N  21.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.4N  22.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 19.3N  25.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1200Z 20.0N  28.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[yoda]

And... bye

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

Satellite images indicate that only a small area of deep convection
remains with the depression, and the center is partially exposed on
the southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The initial wind speed
is kept 30 kt based on persistence.  It seems like the chance for
the depression to become a tropical storm has passed with it now 
moving over cooler waters into a drier air mass.  Thus weakening is
forecast, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low
later today. 

The depression continues moving northwestward, and that course 
should persist today before turning towards the west-northwest 
around a larger cyclonic gyre on Sunday. A slight northward 
adjustment has been made to the forecast, a bit south of the GFS 
model.  All of the model guidance dissipate the small low within 36 
hours, so this is indicated in the new forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 17.8N  21.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 19.2N  23.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/0600Z 20.5N  26.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 21.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 21.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday
afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).