weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 A warm front approaches Sunday advecting rich llvl moisture/theta-e northward combined with increasing shear. Just south of the warm front near moderate instability is possible despite weak lapse rates given dewpoints surging well into the 70's. MLCAPE values could approach 2,000 J/KG...especially if there is enough sunshine. Combination of strong wind shear and moderate buoyancy will result in the development of scattered t'storms...including potential for supercell t'storms. The greatest risk will be damaging winds, however, forecast hodographs exhibit large/curved hodos so the threat for isolated tornadoes is possible. Despite the poor lapse rates this event has the chance to be a fairly decent severe event...although perhaps moreso across PA/NY, however, southwest SNE needs to watch closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Congrats NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats NY state. they typically tend to perform rather well in these setups...I suppose those some nasty cells could try and sneak into Fairfiled County...maybe into the Berkshires too? Anyways, given the degree of llvl instability combined with the look of the hodos that's enough to peak some excitement. Maybe I'll go chasing...if I find someone to go with. I don't like doing it alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 HV spinners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 12z guidance is pretty impressive...gotta keep in mind the inhibiting factors though. If you follow Anthony Maisello on Twitter he's laid those out perfectly. Warming mid-level temps/capping and subsidence. Anyways, anytime you see theta-e values that rich combined with the degree of shear in place...you're eyes better be open. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 12z guidance is pretty impressive...gotta keep in mind the inhibiting factors though. If you follow Anthony Maisello on Twitter he's laid those out perfectly. Warming mid-level temps/capping and subsidence. Anyways, anytime you see theta-e values that rich combined with the degree of shear in place...you're eyes better be open. Eye sewn shut 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 12z guidance is pretty impressive...gotta keep in mind the inhibiting factors though. If you follow Anthony Maisello on Twitter he's laid those out perfectly. Warming mid-level temps/capping and subsidence. Anyways, anytime you see theta-e values that rich combined with the degree of shear in place...you're eyes better be open. Yeah heights rise through the day. Nice shear/cape along the front just not sure we're going to get anything to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah heights rise through the day. Nice shear/cape along the front just not sure we're going to get anything to form. I could envision a scenario where convection tires to develop but it struggles to become deep enough to really utilize the ingredients...only exception may be right along the warm front. You can definitely see areas of warming aloft on various forecast soundings which is not very good to see. I kinda like northeast PA for anything. May see overlap of best ingredients occur there...plus some extra lift from the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 Seriously considering chasing Sunday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 hours ago, CT Rain said: Yeah heights rise through the day. Nice shear/cape along the front just not sure we're going to get anything to form. Sounds awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Seriously considering chasing Sunday... I hear Binghamton is lovely this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I hear Binghamton is lovely this time of year. I'm thinking perhaps NE PA? I've done that before...shit area but fook it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 This is a one day window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: This is a one day window? yes. although NNE might have a shot on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Looks dry tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 big day to look forward to 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 1, 2020 Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 still debating on going into NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Nada in New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 so... @weatherwiz is headed to N NY? Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, a few possibly severe, will be noted across the Northeast later today. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...Northeast... Weak mid-level disturbance will eject across the lower Great Lakes ahead of the main upper trough positioned farther west over the MS Valley. This lead feature should encourage a weak surface low to track from southern ON into southwest QC by mid evening. Any appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the international border, along with the primary large-scale mass response. Early in the day1 period, deep convection will likely be ongoing within a corridor of low-level warm advection, along the nose of a pronounced LLJ. This LLJ will shift north across upstate NY into southern ON/QC during the afternoon hours as a surface warm front advances north of the border. At this time it appears the primary focus for sustained, organized deep convection will be noted immediately ahead of the surface low. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the surface low across western NY where temperatures should warm rapidly through the mid 80s. Renewed surface-based convection should evolve in the lee of Lake Ontario then track northeast. If the surface warm front were to be delayed advancing north into QC, low-level shear would be improved markedly across northern NY which would prove more supportive for supercells and tornadoes. Additionally, there is also some concern for strong convection along the trailing warm front that extends southeast across the Hudson Valley. While boundary-layer warming may not be as strong/focused as farther north, sustained warm advection and high PW-airmass should result in scattered strong convection. Forecast wind profiles favor some supercell threat, though clustering is also possible. Damaging winds should be the primary concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Tornado warning near allentown paul should be in pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tornado warning near allentown paul should be in pa Stay really safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Ft. Drum is lovely this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Definitely could be an active day in SE NY and CT. Low level wind fields strengthen through the day and we're talking about 200-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH. Plenty of CAPE behind the warm front as well. As long as convection can fire up (not a ton of a synoptic scale trigger) there is certainly a tornado threat. This morning sort of reminds me of 7/1/2013. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 Was too early I’m unsure if what I want to do really. Not sure how much we see develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Definitely could be an active day in SE NY and CT. Low level wind fields strengthen through the day and we're talking about 200-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH. Plenty of CAPE behind the warm front as well. As long as convection can fire up (not a ton of a synoptic scale trigger) there is certainly a tornado threat. This morning sort of reminds me of 7/1/2013. All the ingredients are certainly there. Almost kinda a good thing there isn’t a huge amount of lift...want to keep storms discrete. HRRR is wild but I think it’s warm front happy overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 That ongoing cell in NJ could be the one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Bored , maybe I’ll drive 3 hrs SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 Anyone with access to RPM know what it shows for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 If only we had a remnant EML today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Anyone with access to RPM know what it shows for today? Quite a few of these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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