Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think even Fay had more rain here. The feeder band was spotty in this area and obviously any steady rain was west of the city. 

I think Fay did as well.  As you said just the nature of the feeder bands by us. 

[jm1220]

Just now, uofmiami said:

I think Fay did as well.  As you said just the nature of the feeder bands by us. 

There’s never much rain on the east side of these at this latitude. You have to be lucky with whatever feeder bands there are. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thankfully we didn’t loose power here. I’m ready to clean up and get back in the boat!

We had more rain with Fay but this storm had more wind.

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Didn’t most have on average .50 for coast?  I only have .13 here in Syosset & .25 in Muttontown for storm. 

I thought we'd see around .25".   Being off by .25-.35 isn't a bad job by the models. 

[TriPol]

This was just an appetizer. This season has months left to it and no hint of a pattern change. The East Coast is going to get rocked more times.

[uofmiami]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There’s never much rain on the east side of these at this latitude. You have to be lucky with whatever feeder bands there are. 

I know that but I still figured we’d get close to 1” but that never even happened. Glad I left sprinkler system on this morning to run. 

[Parsley]

Islip Terrace area.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Parsley said:

Islip Terrace area.

@Parsley in da house! Hope all is well! You guys got rocked with the rain in eastern Pa

[Parsley]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

@Parsley in da house! Hope all is well! You guys got rocked with the rain in eastern Pa

Word.

Lots of H20. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

This was just an appetizer. This season has months left to it and no hint of a pattern change. The East Coast is going to get rocked more times.

2 tropical  storms back to back months 

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Islip Terrace area.

 

I was going to move there.   Looks like I'm going to Holbrook though. 

[Allsnow]

Quick hitting storm! It’s actually not that bad outside currently. Time to grill some steaks 

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

This was just an appetizer. This season has months left to it and no hint of a pattern change. The East Coast is going to get rocked more times.

The area still has not been hit by a legit hurricane since 1985.  I mean Bob went way east, Sandy was more a polar low in the mid latitudes, and Irene was a TS.  I have to feel a cat 1 or 2 striking LI is coming eventually

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2 tropical  storms back to back months 

Still was a bit more than a tropical storm.   This was a hybrid.  

[uofmiami]

Wonder if the numbers go up some more as they get more reports in. 
 

[donsutherland1]

Significant parts of Larchmont are without power. A number of trees have been uprooted or snapped.

[TriPol]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The area still has not been hit by a legit hurricane since 1985.  I mean Bob went way east, Sandy was more a polar low in the mid latitudes, and Irene was a TS.  I have to feel a cat 1 or 2 striking LI is coming eventually

I truly wonder if Gloria was transitioning to ET by the time it hit LI or if it was still a legit huricane. 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I truly wonder if Gloria was transitioning to ET by the time it hit LI or if it was still a legit huricane. 

Likely transitioning 

[Lanslide]

As per Newsday, Isaias knocked out power to more than 368,000 on Long Island and forced the suspension of all LIRR service.

[cleetussnow]

[Parsley]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

I was going to move there.   Looks like I'm going to Holbrook though. 

Nice! Congrats. 

[cleetussnow]

Pictures above are my house and neighbor’s.  The tree kind of kicked a field goal between the houses.  Not sure yet if my neighbors have damage but the streets are littered with bits of trees. Suns out and we have power.  

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I truly wonder if Gloria was transitioning to ET by the time it hit LI or if it was still a legit huricane. 

NHC did not do recon then or was not doing them once north of a certain lat (I forget which).  They basically said that as of 15Z as the hurricane was off the NJ shore it had winds of 130mph..  You can find these videos on youtube from TWC.  It was not until months later on re-analysis they realized it was probably either 85-90 at landfall.  ISP gusted to 84 mph and BDR to 96.  Its believed that there was an area near William Floyd corridor where winds were 95-115 in gusts based on structural damage.

[MJO812]

This storm was worth staying up for the Euro every night.

It would have been nice to see some flooding rains  with the wind but beggers can't  be choosers.

Onto the next one.

[PB-99]

Had this been a 3 in the SE, this would have been a devastating storm for the NJ coast and accross LI.

Now you know how you could get a major up here, if it's a major in the SE and catches the jet just right and takes a track like this did, you would have seen a very ugly outcome 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Had this been a 3 in the SE, this would have been a devastating storm for the NJ coast and accross LI.

Now you know how you could get a major up here, if it's a major in the SE and catches the jet just right and takes a track like this did, you would have seen a very ugly outcome 

 

Its just hard to get it.  Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend.  The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup

[PB-99]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its just hard to get it.  Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend.  The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup

 

This didn't really weaken on that jet.

If it had 130 mph sustained with gusts to 150 slamming into NC from the S, the jet took this up so fast, that the center would have had max sustained  115/120 with gusts to 130/140.

That's all it takes. You have 29c water all the way to Hatteras.

This didn't fall apart, it weakened some by the time it got to 40 because it rocketed NNE.

We are lucky DR was sitting there.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Had this been a 3 in the SE, this would have been a devastating storm for the NJ coast and accross LI.

Now you know how you could get a major up here, if it's a major in the SE and catches the jet just right and takes a track like this did, you would have seen a very ugly outcome 

On tracks like these, dry air and shear get to them very quickly. You saw how fast the sun came out this afternoon-all the moisture in the storm was pushed out ahead of it. I will say it definitely would’ve been worse if it had 12 more hours over water near NC. It definitely was organizing at the end and couldve made it to Cat 2. 

[PB-99]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

On tracks like these, dry air and shear get to them very quickly. You saw how fast the sun came out this afternoon-all the moisture in the storm was pushed out ahead of it. I will say it definitely would’ve been worse if it had 12 more hours over water near NC. It definitely was organizing at the end and couldve made it to Cat 2. 

if this was a strong 3 in the SE ( NC landfall) , it would have hit the NJ shore and  LI as a 2.

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

if this was a strong 3 in the SE ( NC landfall) , it would have hit the NJ shore and  LI as a 2.

It's hard to compare bc this storm wasn't purely tropical.  But in your scenario, the main difference would be that areas near and just east of the center would have been hit much harder.