Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[dmillz25]

Just gusted over 60 here

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, Animal said:

I have barely an inch.

that shows over 2 inches in my area

As of 1 minute ago 1.91" in Cliffwood Lake

[snywx]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Based on the past 2 days off inter-model averages, I'd say it's a bit of an underperformer in the QPF department for much of the State.  NW areas have been consistently modeled in the 2-6" range.  It's not over yet.

Im already at 1.25" and the meat of it isn't even here yet. 

[weatherdude888]

Significant Power Issues on Staten Island...numerous outages being reported, power has dipped at least 10 times in the last hour, with only moderate winds and rain (located near the SI Mall, in New Springville)

[Animal]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

As of 1 minute ago 1.91" in Cliffwood Lake

What are you using to measure rain with?

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Based on the past 2 days off inter-model averages, I'd say it's a bit of an underperformer in the QPF department for much of the State.  NW areas have been consistently modeled in the 2-6" range.  It's not over yet.

Outside of the UKMET, my area has been forecast for 1-2" since yesterday morning.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Im already at 1.25" and the meat of it isn't even here yet. 

You are pretty far NW - relatively speaking.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Animal said:

What are you using to measure rain with?

Serious question, does your rain gauge have a hole in the bottom of it or are you just trolling?

[Rtd208]

Is KDIX radar down?

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, Animal said:

What are you using to measure rain with?

It's my buddy's station. It's Canistear Reservoir Station on Wunderground

[psv88]

I am not liking what i am seeing south of here. Very concerned

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Is KDIX radar down?

Yes 

[forkyfork]

no power for me

[Cfa]

Getting some gusts now, nothing major yet though. 78/76 with 0.01” from a brief shower.

Didn’t see any Tropical Storm Warnings posted on the LIE like with Fay (and every other TS), everything still COVID related. A lot of people seem oblivious to what’s about to happen.

[psv88]

Just now, Cfa said:

Getting some gusts now, nothing major yet though. 78/76 with 0.01” from a brief shower.

Didn’t see any Tropical Storm Warnings posted on the LIE like with Fay (and every other TS), everything still COVID related. A lot of people seem oblivious to what’s about to happen.

Those supercells south of the island are headed right towards us. ITs going to get ugly

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

no power for me

Everybody drink!

[justinj]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I am not liking what i am seeing south of here. Very concerned

Me either doesn’t look good

[SnowGoose69]

Tornado risk looks to be most central and eastern LI based on radar.  Nassau should  dry slot 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Outside of the UKMET, my area has been forecaste for 1-2" since yesterday morning.

I'm not calling model bust.  I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential.  This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.

 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

Ok, just gusted to almost hurricane strength here in Brooklyn. 71 MPH

There aren't any reports of winds over 70 up here

[lee59]

8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Just gusted over 60 here

Do you have an anemometer?

[Allsnow]

Numerous trees and wires down around Metuchen. Police department advised everyone to stay home. 
 

I always knew this would be impactful 

[qg_omega]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Tornado risk looks to be most central and eastern LI based on radar.  Nassau should  dry slot 

NYC got lucky they found a hole in the severe line 

[justinj]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Tornado risk looks to be most central and eastern LI based on radar.  Nassau should  dry slot 

Headed straight towards me 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I'm not calling model bust.  I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential.  This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.

 

I'll take 2-3" of rain and the wind over 6-8" rain and no wind.

[lee59]

Just now, MJO812 said:

There aren't any reports of winds over 70 up here

I guess you didn't see my report about 20 minutes ago. 109 reported at Long Beach Island N.J. during I believe a tornado. It is official at a weather station.

[bluewave]

Gilgo Beach on the South Shore gusting to 47 mph now.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3143&unit=0&timetype=GMT

10:30

77.0

72.8

74.0

87

36.0

47.0

ESE

[eduggs]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I'll take 2-3" of rain and the wind over 6-8" rain and no wind.

Me too.  Where I'm staying in north central NJ is flooding prone and I was concerned.

[NJwx85]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 417
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     northern Connecticut
     Massachusetts
     southern New Hampshire
     eastern New York
     northern Rhode Island
     southern Vermont
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...In association with the north-northeastward progression of
   Isaias, thunderstorm activity will form and spread northward across
   the region this afternoon through early evening, in an environment
   conducive to the development of a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles north northwest of
   Poughkeepsie NY to 30 miles east southeast of Boston MA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm not calling model bust.  I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential.  This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.

 

No bust out here.  7.22” and still coming down.