Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[uncle W]

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...
date.................amount........
Sept 1882.......10.63"
Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane
Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene
Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie
Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria
Sept 1938.........5.74"
Sept 1934.........5.48"
Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd
Aug 1879..........4.59"
Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle
Oct 1877...........4.07"
Aug 1893..........3.94"
Sept 1904.........3.85"
Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob
Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria
July 1960..........3.56"...Brenda
Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol
Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

[gravitylover]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Based on the 100 mile rule, if you want the heaviest rainfall from a TC you want it the center to be about 100 miles to your east.  I remember when Gloria made LF near Bay Shore, the heaviest rains were right over NYC.  When Bob made LF between MTP and Block Island, the heaviest rains were in Queens and Nassau County.  When Floyd made landfall on Jones Beach, the heaviest rains were in NJ and NE PA.  When Irene made landfall near Coney Island, the heaviest rains were in NJ.  When Bertha made landfall near JFK the heaviest rains were in the Poconos.  etc.....

 

My experience is that it's always north and east of the center that gets the most dramatic effects of an east coast cyclone. As it runs up the coast it drives the wind and moisture into that upper right quadrant then over the top. In Floyd I got over 14" of rain in just a few hours as the storm ran into LI. My memories of Glorian are a little bit muddy but in Oceanside I don't remember it having much impact at all and we were just a few miles west of the center as it came onshore. For Irene I got absolutely drenched here in southern Putnam, we lost a tree that fell on the house and had no power for a week after, Vermont got thoroughly devastated with a foot of rain as did parts of the Catskills and I'm pretty much due north of where it made landfall. Of course these are anecdotal but I tend to remember the big ones pretty clearly.

[lee59]

Gloria was not impressive looking to the west of the eye. From eastern Nassau on east the wind was pretty bad with numerous outages and lots of trees down. Hazel was real interesting because it went thru western Pennsylvania  but the winds far east of the center were record breaking in NYC where Battery Park received over 100MPH gusts and I believe Hartford also had a record wind gust. Battery Park actually had 113mph, highest ever in NYC

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Gloria was not impressive looking to the west of the eye. From eastern Nassau on east the wind was pretty bad with numerous outages and lots of trees down. Hazel was real interesting because it went thru western Pennsylvania  but the winds far east of the center were record breaking in NYC where Battery Park received over 100MPH gusts and I believe Hartford also had a record wind gust. Battery Park actually had 113mph, highest ever in NYC

Yes the winds are almost always stronger to the east of the eye, but the rainfall totals are usually higher to the west..... parts of the 5 boros had somewhere between 5 and 6 inches of rain from it?

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My experience is that it's always north and east of the center that gets the most dramatic effects of an east coast cyclone. As it runs up the coast it drives the wind and moisture into that upper right quadrant then over the top. In Floyd I got over 14" of rain in just a few hours as the storm ran into LI. My memories of Glorian are a little bit muddy but in Oceanside I don't remember it having much impact at all and we were just a few miles west of the center as it came onshore. For Irene I got absolutely drenched here in southern Putnam, we lost a tree that fell on the house and had no power for a week after, Vermont got thoroughly devastated with a foot of rain as did parts of the Catskills and I'm pretty much due north of where it made landfall. Of course these are anecdotal but I tend to remember the big ones pretty clearly.

Yes, we didn't get anywhere near as much rain from Floyd as you did, here it was around 3-4 inches.  I remember NE PA got 10" or more a real drought buster in 1999!

Gloria had much more rainfall over NYC; we had heavy rain too, but it came to an abrupt end as the center zoomed north at around 70 mph.  And a whole lot of nothing on the other side lol.

Vermont was a disaster area in Irene.  The three states that suffered the most from Irene were NC, NJ and VT.  Sounds like your part of NYS suffered pretty badly too.  We had heavy rain but nowhere near what you got.  August 2011 was extremely rainy for us though (similar to October 2005), we had about 10" of rain on a Saturday from a separate event (training storms.)

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Gloria was not impressive looking to the west of the eye. From eastern Nassau on east the wind was pretty bad with numerous outages and lots of trees down. Hazel was real interesting because it went thru western Pennsylvania  but the winds far east of the center were record breaking in NYC where Battery Park received over 100MPH gusts and I believe Hartford also had a record wind gust. Battery Park actually had 113mph, highest ever in NYC

Yes, a Cat 3 wind gust!  I wonder if they shut down the bridges during that storm?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...
date.................amount........
Sept 1882.......10.63"
Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane
Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene
Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie
Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria
Sept 1938.........5.74"
Sept 1934.........5.48"
Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd
Aug 1879..........4.59"
Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle
Oct 1877...........4.07"
Aug 1893..........3.94"
Sept 1904.........3.85"
Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob
Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria
July 1960..........3.56"...Brenda
Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol
Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

1944 is an extremely underrated TC....there were reports of 200 mph wind gusts from coastal NJ?  Lots of damage there.  That was a true coastal hugger.

a record hot summer too.....1944 was a fascinating year.

I think Aug 1893 is the only hurricane on this list that actually made landfall in the 5 boros?

Uncle, do you have a track/intensity map for Sept 1882 (our rainiest month ever, almost nudged out by October 2005), I haven't seen a map for that storm.

 

Uncle, I found something else pretty amazing that happened in Sept 1882!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Comet_of_1882

The Great Comet of 1882 formally designated C/1882 R1, 1882 II, and 1882b, was a comet which became very bright in September 1882. It was a member of the Kreutz Sungrazers, a family of comets which pass within 1 R_☉ of the Sun's photosphere at perihelion.^[1][2] The comet was bright enough to be visible next to the Sun in the daytime sky at its perihelion.^[3]

 

 

 

 

[lee59]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1944 is an extremely underrated TC....there were reports of 200 mph wind gusts from coastal NJ?  Lots of damage there.  That was a true coastal hugger.

a record hot summer too.....1944 was a fascinating year.

I think Aug 1893 is the only hurricane on this list that actually made landfall in the 5 boros?

Uncle, do you have a track/intensity map for Sept 1882 (our rainiest month ever, almost nudged out by October 2005), I haven't seen a map for that storm.

 

 

1944 Hurricane made landfall in Southhampton Beach Long Island. I would have my doubts about the 200mph wind gusts unless they had a tornado.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

1944 Hurricane made landfall in Southhampton Beach Long Island. I would have my doubts about the 200mph wind gusts unless they had a tornado.

thats why I find this storm so intriguing, it caused way more damage to the Jersey shore than would be expected with that kind of landfall.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Great_Atlantic_hurricane#Jersey_Shore

as a matter of fact, that storm tracked significantly farther east than Gloria lol.

 

 

[PB-99]

Keep a few things in mind with this early on.

This reformed North of Hispaniola where it should have been shredded and it now starting to have some have some pretty healthy outflow.

You have 29c in front of it with a ridge keeping it pinned , preventing it from recurving.

So it's getting funneled into some favorable conditions over the next 48 hours.

Then its up. The key for us does it strike S of OBX and come up as an inside runner which would weaken it or will not like the friction and want to stay off.

If the models underestimate the strength in the SE you would want to root for it come in west of OBX because its forward motion would keep a good center intact if it made a B line for Islip.

 

[White Gorilla]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, I personally dont remember it but I remember Gloria lol.  Didn't Henry make landfall just before Gloria did?  I remember days of rainfall before Gloria hit, maybe that was Henry?

 

Yup, Henry came before Gloria.  Even in 7th grade I was a weather geek following every detail on my NOAH weather radio! 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1944 is an extremely underrated TC....there were reports of 200 mph wind gusts from coastal NJ?  Lots of damage there.  That was a true coastal hugger.

a record hot summer too.....1944 was a fascinating year.

I think Aug 1893 is the only hurricane on this list that actually made landfall in the 5 boros?

Uncle, do you have a track/intensity map for Sept 1882 (our rainiest month ever, almost nudged out by October 2005), I haven't seen a map for that storm.

 

Uncle, I found something else pretty amazing that happened in Sept 1882!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Comet_of_1882

The Great Comet of 1882 formally designated C/1882 R1, 1882 II, and 1882b, was a comet which became very bright in September 1882. It was a member of the Kreutz Sungrazers, a family of comets which pass within 1 R_☉ of the Sun's photosphere at perihelion.^[1][2] The comet was bright enough to be visible next to the Sun in the daytime sky at its perihelion.^[3]

 

 

 

 

1882 and 1944 newspaper accounts of the storms...

1882...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1882-09-23/ed-1/seq-10/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1882-09-24/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1882-09-24/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1882-09-24/ed-1/seq-1/

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50367140

 

1944...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52894719/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52894893

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52896093/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52896175

 

[uncle W]

when I used to take the train to Coney island it would pass Coney Island creek and the sunken tugboat next to the train bridge...my aunt at the time this picture was taken 1961 told me it sunk during the 1944 hurricane...

[Jacob brooklyn]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

when I used to take the train to Coney island it would pass Coney Island creek and the sunken tugboat next to the train bridge...my aunt at the time this picture was taken 1961 told me it sunk during the 1944 hurricane...

Hi what train to coney island goes over a bridge like that? 

 

oh I see 1961 but still doesn't look like a familiar train line. 

[PB-99]

Just now, Jacob brooklyn said:

Hi what train to coney island goes over a bridge like that? 

That's the F train off the Belt right unc ? 

[Jacob brooklyn]

Just now, PB-99 said:

That's the F train off the Belt right unc ? 

hmmm.. is it really?

[Jacob brooklyn]

4 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

hmmm.. is it really?

ok, it could be. rarely take the f to coney island. but I looked it up and they upgraded that little shanty of a bridge. that could be why it looked odd to me

[PB-99]

6 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

hmmm.. is it really?

Or the B ? after it comes out of the yards and turn back around in C / I.

It's just off the belt tho.

Unc will confirm

[Jacob brooklyn]

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

Or the B ? after it comes out of the yards and turn back around in C / I.

It's just off the belt tho.

Unc will confirm

ok, interesting photo. I know there are some lines that go very low a few feet off the water. not sure which ones. but the b. the last stop is brigton beach. thats near me. b and q. and as far as I know they don't cross that bridge. yes, maybe back to the yards they all do  

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

ok, interesting photo. I know there are some lines that go very low a few feet off the water. not sure which ones. but the b. the last stop is brigton beach. thats near me. b and q. and as far as I know they don't cross that bridge. yes, maybe back to the yards they all do  

A goes only a few feet above the water in Jamaica Bay near Beach Channel.  That line was really damaged by Sandy.

 

[Jacob brooklyn]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

A goes only a few feet above the water in Jamaica Bay near Beach Channel.  That line was really damaged by Sandy.

 

That can be the one I am thinking of. pretty cool

[rclab]

22 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

ok, interesting photo. I know there are some lines that go very low a few feet off the water. not sure which ones. but the b. the last stop is brigton beach. thats near me. b and q. and as far as I know they don't cross that bridge yes, maybe back to the yards they all do  

I remember going to a high school friends House in Coney Island. I saw the tug while sitting on the rat-ten straw seats if the Sea Beach Express, I believe the N. The train in the picture was a new model almost 60 years ago.As always .....

[Santa Claus]

3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

Keep a few things in mind with this early on.

This reformed North of Hispaniola where it should have been shredded and it now starting to have some have some pretty healthy outflow.

You have 29c in front of it with a ridge keeping it pinned , preventing it from recurving.

So it's getting funneled into some favorable conditions over the next 48 hours.

Then its up. The key for us does it strike S of OBX and come up as an inside runner which would weaken it or will not like the friction and want to stay off.

If the models underestimate the strength in the SE you would want to root for it come in west of OBX because its forward motion would keep a good center intact if it made a B line for Islip.

 

Just tons of time left for any number of solutions.

I haven't seen a lot of talk about potential future interaction with the trough over the eastern U.S.  A few models did have some kind of capture and a crash into the Carolinas.

[uncle W]

41 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Or the B ? after it comes out of the yards and turn back around in C / I.

It's just off the belt tho.

Unc will confirm

At the time it was the sea beach and West end trains...now it's the n for the sea beach and what ever letter the West end is today...

[Rjay]

We have a hurricane

[SnoSki14]

GFS looking more ominous. That's a decent hurricane impacting LI. 

[purduewx80]

yikes 

[NJwx85]

The storm is really hauling and if it ends up much more intense than predicted it could be a legitimate hurricane near LI.

[Great Snow 1717]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Besides 1938 what were the other majors that hit Long Island or NYC?  1944?  Carol?  Donna?  Maybe that 1821 hurricane?  I cant think of any others. And there are others of interest including the 2 hurricanes in 1815.

 

The hurricanes in 1635, 1667,1693 and 1788 may have been major hurricanes. And a close miss in 1869. Others of interest are the 2 hurricanes in 1815 and the hurricane in 1849.

[PB-99]

I think this maxes near a near a 3 in the SE and hits NC from the south as a 2.

Then rips right up 95.

Gona be fun to track.