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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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gravitylover
gravitylover

I don't understand how everybody thinks power restoration can happen much more quickly than it is. For instance, there's a street lower down on my hill that had over 70 trees down, those have to be cu

wdrag
wdrag

Good Saturday morning everyone, Little change from what was posted yesterday and possibly my last post until Sunday morning.At that time, I may start a separate SVR topic for Sunday alone. Need more t

wdrag
wdrag

The following is for information only. NOT media for rebroadcast. I'm borrowing from another highly reliable source, with whom I've not had time to discuss permission transmitting his information.  BU

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

0z 3km NAM looks a little stronger with the winds tomorrow afternoon/evening. Worst of it for the Jersey Shore starts around noon, and then for NYC/LI the worst is from 3-7pm. There's an area of what looks to be 50+kt sustained wind at 10m right along the Jersey Shore and then into the south shore of LI. Gusts in that would likely be near hurricane force. Thankfully the strong winds would only really go on for less than 6 hours and the storm's trucking north. Appears that a feeder band pivots through as the strong winds really get going. Narrow area of 3"+ rain mostly in E PA and W NJ, then into the Catskills. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jhotdog said:

I’m on vacation at my mother in laws place in cape May. 1 block from the bay. What should we expect to see here? Thanks for any info. Really appreciate your guys posting on this storm.

I was just there on Friday 

Dangerous  winds and flooding most likely

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 040316
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of 
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina 
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum 
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).

A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported 
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 
km/h). 

A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported 
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky/Beven

 

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stemwinder

stemwinder

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I'm hoping this storm does not track west of the city...if it does we could see some strong winds from the south south east and less rainfall...I'd rather see more rain and less wind...not looking forward to power outages from this...Hazel in 1954 was a much bigger hurricane but tracked well west of the city...winds were clocked at 113mph on the roof of 17 Battery place in lower Manhattan...

I was in Hudson County during Hazel.  Great winds, but very little rain.  You pointed out elsewhere: it was the third storm to hit the area in 1954.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

I think it's looking pretty likely that storm will pass west of NYC. Nam/GFS has it in western NJ. 

This will put eastern NJ, NYC, LI in the middle of the strongest gusts with a high likelihood of a few spinups. 

Storm will be moving through at nearly 30mph which will only increase the wind force on the eastern side. I think some 80mph gusts seem probable.

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted

image.thumb.png.a345275e5bf547899e9ffdd520a33ba0.png

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

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Santa Claus

Santa Claus

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

Probably not a great day for friends, family, and neighbors around here tomorrow.  Bad trends.

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justinj

justinj

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

image.thumb.png.a345275e5bf547899e9ffdd520a33ba0.png

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

I can’t see anyone seeing sustained 60. I’ll believe it when I see it. I think you’ll see 50 sustained. I personally think the wind is overhyped. High winds will be very very isolated 

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TheManWithNoFace

TheManWithNoFace

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

image.thumb.png.a345275e5bf547899e9ffdd520a33ba0.png

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

Thats 35 feet up. 

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted

SPC Day 1 

...Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay region to New England...
   As Isaias shifts northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic Region into
   New England, an accompanying/very moist low-level environment will
   permit maintenance of modest CAPE along and east of the track of the
   storm.  With a very strong wind field -- veering strongly with
   height -- also spreading northward in tandem with Isaias, a
   favorable environment for rotating cells -- and a few tornadoes --
   is apparent.  Overnight, as the storm eventually approaches the St.
   Lawrence Valley, limited tornado risk may spread as far north as
   Maine.

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

day1otlk_1200.gif

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