Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least the lack of rain East of the center should limit the tree damage somewhat. There’ll definitely be power outages though if the 60+ mph gusts do happen. If you’re expecting over an inch of rain though you’ll be disappointed. Many may not even make it to 0.5”. 

Its insane how this storm will shoot straight north  instead of re curving.

[PB-99]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Its insane how this storm will shoot straight north  instead of re curving.

The jet was always taking this NNE with the WAR sitting there. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The jet was always taking this NNE with the WAR sitting there. 

War is stronger than what was modeled for this storm last week.

[RockawayRowdies]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least the lack of rain East of the center should limit the tree damage somewhat. There’ll definitely be power outages though if the 60+ mph gusts do happen. If you’re expecting over an inch of rain though you’ll be disappointed. Many may not even make it to 0.5”. 

As of right now NWS is expecting 4 inches of rain between today 8 PM and Wednesday 2 PM.

Over 3 inches between 8 AM tomorrow and 2 AM wednesday

[justinj]

I’m in south central Suffolk hoping the higher winds and gusts stay on the beaches and over water. Really hope we dont lose power 

[MikeS]

NHC has the heaviest rains staying just to our west as of the 11am update:

[Allsnow]

I’m sure it will be impactful for some locations  but I would sell on any big wind threat IMO 

[forkyfork]

i'm fine with not getting 6" of rain

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i'm fine with not getting 6" of rain

Yeah, it’s been clear since yesterday the heaviest of the rain will be in eastern Pa and NW jersey.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m sure it will be impactful for some locations  but I would sell on any big wind threat IMO 

Why ?

Interaction with the trough will enhance the winds. Some areas will come close to hurricane force wind gusts especially on the coast.

[tek1972]

This system looks TERRIBLE. I'm not sold on any gusts much past 50

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[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

This system looks TERRIBLE. I'm not sold on any gusts much past 50

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LOL

 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Why would you say that ? The trough is going to ignite this storm up here.

Heaviest rain will be west of the city  and the strongest  winds will be in NYC east.

yes, but it's a quick hitter.   some of the more damaging storms have 30-40 mph winds for hours before the main show arrives-I agree with him-fast moving event with a couple inches of rain on relatively dry ground and a few hours of wind.

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, it’s been clear since yesterday the heaviest of the rain will be in eastern Pa and NW jersey.

2" from the city west, 4" out toward the western nj counties 

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why ?

Interaction with the trough will enhance the winds. Some areas will come close to hurricane force wind gusts especially on the coast.

Perhaps along the immediate shoreline/eastern LI but I think less then 50 mph for much of the area 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Perhaps along the immediate shoreline/eastern LI but I think less then 50 mph for much of the area 

For a tropical  storm ?

I will take the over in many spots near the coast.

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

This system looks TERRIBLE. I'm not sold on any gusts much past 50

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This won't be even close to a purely tropical system in our area. 

[NJwx85]

 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Perhaps along the immediate shoreline/eastern LI but I think less then 50 mph for much of the area 

I don't think so, the new NHC advisory discussion was pretty concerning regarding wind gusts. 

This is a well mixed atmosphere. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think so, the new NHC advisory discussion was pretty concerning regarding wind gusts. 

This is a well mixed atmosphere. 

They extended the Tropical Storm Warnings inland

[NJwx85]

The current structure or appearance of the storm while it’s still down in the tropics has little if any impacts on what’s going to happen up here, unless the system had dissipated which clearly it hasn’t.

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, KrazyKeyur said:

As of right now NWS is expecting 4 inches of rain between today 8 PM and Wednesday 2 PM.

Over 3 inches between 8 AM tomorrow and 2 AM wednesday

If you’re in much of NJ, E PA and the Hudson valley, sure. If you’re East of the city, no way unless this ends up taking much more of a NE turn than expected. 

[NJwx85]

You can already see the rain shield fanning out and extending Northward. Center is just East of Saint Mary’s, GA and the steady rain is approaching Myrtle Beach.

[weathermedic]

Radar looks like convection (or at least rain) is slowly trying to wrap around the center of circulation.

[David-LI]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Can anyone expand on the discussion/ explain that tornado parameter image?

 

[NJwx85]

Don’t be surprised if they hoist hurricane watches for LI. Several models are showing gust potential up to 65kts.

[Big Jims Videos]

An 80 mph gust on LI and 70 on the Jersey Shore is a good possibility.  I'll be covering this one from manasquan (as usual) and certainly emphasize the tornado threat.  

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why ?

Interaction with the trough will enhance the winds. Some areas will come close to hurricane force wind gusts especially on the coast.

He says this for every single storm. Let him do his thing. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

He says this for every single storm. Let him do his thing. 

I think  a reasonable call is 1-2 inches of rain for NYC with winds 20-35 and gusts up to 60 with a few locations  hitting 70

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

An 80 mph gust on LI and 70 on the Jersey Shore is a good possibility.  I'll be covering this one from manasquan (as usual) and certainly emphasize the tornado threat.  

I'd be shocked if we didn't see some hurricane force gusts. This storm has been big on winds from the start.

The winds on the east side of an accelerating tropical system can be quite powerful.