Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[Rtd208]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs also shifted slightly east with the heaviest rain.

Right now it looks like the heaviest rain will be just west of NYC  unless this storm shifts more east in future runs.

Slight wobbles can make a big difference here on who gets the heavies rains. IMO the models may continue to adjust slightly east but regardless if areas in and around the city miss out on the heaviest rains they will have a better chance of severe weather with a few spin ups possible along with windier conditions. 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Anthony didn’t we have a tropical storm just last year that missed Florida coast by an inch and ended up missing us entirely just a few days before coming up here? I don’t think we miss but I think we get a benchmark track here with a medium impact around Long Island and heavy rain everywhere else. Lighter rains once you pass Sussex county New Jersey 

Matthew?

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Anthony didn’t we have a tropical storm just last year that missed Florida coast by an inch and ended up missing us entirely just a few days before coming up here? I don’t think we miss but I think we get a benchmark track here with a medium impact around Long Island and heavy rain everywhere else. Lighter rains once you pass Sussex county New Jersey 

Dorian

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

Yes that’s it Dorian I just looked it up thank you. Obviously Dorian was a major hurricane but it’s path is very similar to the current tropical system

Except isiasas is going mostly north from nc

[snowman19]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs also shifted slightly east with the heaviest rain.

Right now it looks like the heaviest rain will be just west of NYC  unless this storm shifts more east in future runs.

Those are some scary rain totals if correct. You are talking very serious flooding, then when the winds kick in Tuesday night with the soaked ground, you are going to have trees and power lines coming down like no one’s business

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those are some scary rain totals if correct. You are talking very serious flooding, then when the winds kick in Tuesday night with the soaked ground, you are going to have trees and power lines coming down like no one’s business

Agree man

Weird to see you posting during the summer lol 

[495weatherguy]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those are some scary rain totals if correct. You are talking very serious flooding, then when the winds kick in Tuesday night with the soaked ground, you are going to have trees and power lines coming down like no one’s business

No one should want this to occur--could be a very scary situation if this comes to fruition

[MJO812]

Ukie quite similiar  to 0z

[MJO812]

983 low into central LI on the Ukie

[MJO812]

Near 9 inches of rain for NYC on the Ukie with slightly more to the west

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Near 9 inches of rain for NYC on the Ukie with slightly more to the west

Let’s hope it’s wrong

[Snowlover11]

yikes ukie nukes us. high wind/rain amounts that 5-9” of rain for nearly everyone

[MJO812]

Ukie gusts

[NJwx85]

Should be a good deal of rain out ahead of the core as it interacts with the trough which will draw the moisture poleward. The actual core should be intense but it’s a very fast mover. I think rain totals might be in the 3-5” range, unless the PRE is more intense than it currently looks.

[forkyfork]

so far the euro's track is a carbon copy of the ukmet

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so far the euro's track is a carbon copy of the ukmet

But weaker

Strongest winds are out in LI

Rain shield shifted east

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But weaker

Strongest winds are out in LI

Rain shield shifted east

not as much rain-2-3 inches for most of the subforum

[MJO812]

Small shift east on the tropical models 

[forkyfork]

that's the most reasonable track imo

[Sportybx]

Let’s say it’s somewhere between the Euro and the Ukie . What are we looking at for the Tri State area , flooding , winds beach erosion ? Are we looking at big storm surge 

[LAVistaNY]

All the ash trees in my area (Westchester/ CT border) are dead or dying. I’m concerned!

[MJO812]

Nam is coming in further east for our area 

[Franklin0529]

Glorified noreaster

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Glorified noreaster

I wouldn’t just call this a nor’easter... this will most certainly pack more of a punch then that! 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Glorified noreaster

No it isnt

[MJO812]

[weathermedic]

That map has us under a tropical storm watch

[wdrag]

No change in thinking of PRE Monday niight-early Tue and then the 6 hour slug of R++ Tue afternoon/eve with G 50kt e LI. 

Is anyone in NWS writing about PRE potential?  Haven't had time to check.  I may be in error on a PRE convergent area as discussed this morning. ???

Follow SPC/NHC/WPC and local NWS office for up to date details-discussions., 

Offline til 9PM ish. 516P/2

 

[weathermedic]

OKX mentioned PRE in their AFD this afternoon 

Airmass will be slightly drier Monday with dewpoints getting
more into the 60s before increasing Monday night again.
Dewpoints Monday night will return to upper 60s to lower 70s for
much of the region. Layer precipitable waters increase again
towards 2 inches late Monday night. Heavy rain will be possible
at times late Monday night for locations north and west of NYC
with potential

Airmass will be slightly drier Monday with dewpoints getting
more into the 60s before increasing Monday night again.
Dewpoints Monday night will return to upper 60s to lower 70s for
much of the region. Layer precipitable waters increase again
towards 2 inches late Monday night. Heavy rain will be possible
at times late Monday night for locations north and west of NYC
with potential predecessor rainfall event (PRE). Tropical
moisture will be moving in with that weak lingering frontal
boundary within the region.

Tropical
moisture will be moving in with that weak lingering frontal
boundary within the region.

[wdrag]

Thanks for the OKX PRE!!  Good... this if it happens can be as big in a narrow 40 mile wide swath thats 100 mi or longer ,  as Isaias...IF it occurs.  Not classic but potential. You saw the 4-7" reports near RDG this morning...  suspect same but longer-wider and a bit different axis location than that of this morning. 

Big storm seems to be going w of ABE now..digital storm tops near 55K. Have less than 2 hours to get it out of PA and extreme nw NJ and Orange County before drying overwhelms (I think).