Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[purduewx80]

3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I honestly don't get how there isn't more concern for the wind impact on LI, especially along the immediate south shore by most people/media outlets. Yes, those Euro/UK maps are waaaaay overdone but with the wind direction coming straight off the Atlantic thanks to the western track, LI could really get slammed here.

This is where the recent heat wave and warm SSTs come into play. Allows for steeper low level lapse rates to tap into the low level jet. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I honestly don't get how there isn't more concern for the wind impact on LI, especially along the immediate south shore by most people/media outlets. Yes, those Euro/UK maps are waaaaay overdone but with the wind direction coming straight off the Atlantic thanks to the western track, LI could really get slammed here.

That’s the main takeaway. This isn’t like most storms in the past were the strongest winds were from the NE or E. It’s going to be a straight onshore wind with minimal loss from land friction. I expect tree damage and power outages will be wide spread. The one saving grace is the fact that sandy took out so many large old trees. 

[MJO812]

Brooklyn NY point and click forecast

2-4 inches of rain with 40-50 mph winds with gusts to 70.

[MJO812]

Recon found 985 in the storm

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s the main takeaway. This isn’t like most storms in the past were the strongest winds were from the NE or E. It’s going to be a straight onshore wind with minimal loss from land friction. I expect tree damage and power outages will be wide spread. The one saving grace is the fact that sandy took out so many large old trees. 

You don’t necessarily always mix down winds on S or SE flow.  I suspect the event being during the day will help somewhat but we’ve seen plenty of events similar to this which underachieve somewhat 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

My son is down near Georgetown SC, he had been underwhelmed but things may be picking up.

 

His latest text, he’s no longer underwhelmed.

[BombsAway1288]

11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

This is where the recent heat wave and warm SSTs come into play. Allows for steeper low level lapse rates to tap into the low level jet. 

Thanks for bolstering my argument and teaching the knowledge you have that my brain couldn't muster up enough as an 18 y/o going into college.

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s the main takeaway. This isn’t like most storms in the past were the strongest winds were from the NE or E. It’s going to be a straight onshore wind with minimal loss from land friction. I expect tree damage and power outages will be wide spread. The one saving grace is the fact that sandy took out so many large old trees. 

Exactly. Good point about clear-out Sandy did. Certainly took out most of/all of the weaker tree's in my hometown in NE Bergen County when I was still living there. Never forget that storm

[btcs31]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

Surprised it wasn't cancelled already, it will be later tonight most likely.

Well I just needed to wait. Flight just cancelled. Guess it’s more than some windy rain.

[s_parr1092]

His latest text, he’s no longer underwhelmed.

[Tatamy]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[MJO812]

Jeez 18z Euro is insane with the wind gusts. 80+ for many on the coast. 

[Stormlover74]

 

[Franklin0529]

[Franklin0529]

This is in toms river

 

[Allsnow]

Just had lightning hit something near by. The thunder was very loud also 

[NJwx85]

Tornado threat increasing 

[BlizzLuv]

heavy rain and thunder here a few minutes ago

[MJO812]

Raining  here with lightning

 

Brooklyn NY

[Stormlover74]

Tropical downpour with wind

[Maureen]

Light show here in Carteret. Any other night I’d figure it was fireworks. 
 

Good luck to all, stay safe. 

[David-LI]

Is this part of Isaias already?

[Snowlover11]

Just now, David-LI said:

Is this part of Isaias already?

pre front if i stand correct.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Is this part of Isaias already?

It’s a combination of the trough and moisture streaming north from the hurricane. PRE.

[s_parr1092]

Gotta be pretty close to the eye wall down here near Pawleys Island.

[Rtd208]

Pouring w/a thunderstorm here.

[MJO812]

Torrential rain here in Brooklyn 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
900 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA 
Doppler radars indicate that the maximum sustained winds associated 
with Hurricane Isaias have increased to 85 mph (135 km/h) with 
higher gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 988 mb 
(29.18 inches).

NOAA buoy 41004 recent reported sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) 
and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) in the southwest eyewall of Isaias.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

 

 

[donsutherland1]

EWR has picked up 0.24” rain in a thunderstorm in the last 10 minutes.

[NJwx85]

Thinking rainfall is underdone. All that rain in VA and the interior SE is non existent on the mesoscale models except for the RGEM.

[SnoSki14]

Starting to get increasingly concerned this won't just be your run of the mill tropical storm. 

The combo of that jet and this system is def a concern. We're also seeing the tornado threat play out right now. 

Imagine if the Ukie & Euro were right with those widespread 70+mph gusts