Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

classic east of track situation like we saw with Fay

3K NAM is even further west with the 2 inch rain line over the Delaware River and west

yeah this is such a "normal" pattern for what these storms do up here, you dont even need a model to forecast it- lots of rain west of the track, lots of wind east of the track.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

More likely 7-8PM.

I should have been in the Poconos for this one lol, I would've seen a lot more rain there.

 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I should have been in the Poconos for this one lol, I would've seen a lot more rain there.

 

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

I'll take the first option if it means a much more manageable storm, as it's looking like up here further inland. 

[btcs31]

I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

[HailMan06]

4 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

If I were you I'd prepare for delays, at least.

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

That flight doesnt seem likely

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

tornadoes are so rare, the chances of seeing one are literally a million to one.  The second option would be more exciting if it was raining the entire time it was windy.

[NJwx85]

18z RGEM nails most of the area with lots of rain. Near Hurricane force winds for the SE NJ coast as well. Waiting for the rest of the run to load.

[White Gorilla]

I see a wall of rain moving up into DC and Maryland.  Is that the PRE getting going? 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

tornadoes are so rare, the chances of seeing one are literally a million to one.  The second option would be more exciting if it was raining the entire time it was windy.

It'll be somewhat likely on LI that there are one or two, but even so TS/hurricane related tornadoes are typically weak and short lived. 

Thankfully it seems like the worst of the storm will be over by high tide tomorrow night. 

[MJO812]

Upton is getting  concerned about the winds. NYC media is also mentioning the Euro .

[uofmiami]

31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That flight doesnt seem likely

Surprised it wasn't cancelled already, it will be later tonight most likely.

[MJO812]

Gfs is really dry from the City east.

Very gusty winds 

[Sportybx]

The worst part of this storm . Is going to be everyone who wasn’t prepared because no media coverage. Then tomorrow 2 hours before it hits everyone is running wild for supples 

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

FYP

[IrishRob17]

My son is down near Georgetown SC, he had been underwhelmed but things may be picking up.

 

[NJwx85]

 

[White Gorilla]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

A more potent PRE than modeled? 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It'll be somewhat likely on LI that there are one or two, but even so TS/hurricane related tornadoes are typically weak and short lived. 

Thankfully it seems like the worst of the storm will be over by high tide tomorrow night. 

yeah a 3ft surge wouldn't be something we want to see.

is high tide around 8 PM tomorrow night on the south shore?

 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

A more potent PRE than modeled? 

It’s kind of falling apart now.

[justinj]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah a 3ft surge wouldn't be something we want to see.

is high tide around 8 PM tomorrow night on the south shore?

 

9ish

[NJwx85]

 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah a 3ft surge wouldn't be something we want to see.

is high tide around 8 PM tomorrow night on the south shore?

 

Jones Inlet is just before 9pm. 

[LoboLeader1]

Heard on the news that any power restoration required tomorrow afternoon/evening may take longer, due to the pandemic.

[tdp146]

Just got an email from PSEG.  If we really do get the severe wind impacts out here, regular people really are not aware. 

PSEG Long Island has been monitoring Isaias around the clock and our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach Long Island in years and some outages could last for an extended period.

The energy grid is much stronger now than it was just a few years ago, but we are prepared to respond to any outages safely and as quickly as possible with our own crews and additional utility crews that we are bringing in from off-island.

 

[bluewave]

Pressure down to 989 mb at the buoy off South Carolina.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):

29.21 in

 

 

AS OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[BombsAway1288]

11 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Just got an email from PSEG.  If we really do get the severe wind impacts out here, regular people really are not aware. 

PSEG Long Island has been monitoring Isaias around the clock and our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach Long Island in years and some outages could last for an extended period.

The energy grid is much stronger now than it was just a few years ago, but we are prepared to respond to any outages safely and as quickly as possible with our own crews and additional utility crews that we are bringing in from off-island.

 

I honestly don't get how there isn't more concern for the wind impact on LI, especially along the immediate south shore by most people/media outlets. Yes, those Euro/UK maps are waaaaay overdone but with the wind direction coming straight off the Atlantic thanks to the western track, LI could really get slammed here.