Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[MJO812]

0z Euro has really strong winds and dangerous  gusts for the coast. 

Low is sub 990 west of NYC

[Rtd208]

The theme on the 0z runs tonight seems to be a stronger storm with it going just west of the city. While there could be some slight fluctuations in track and intensity on the models for the next 12-24 hours it looks like we are starting to get a consensus. 

[Tatamy]

As predicted the cool front that separates dew points in the mid 60’s across eastern PA and western NJ from the mid 70’s in the metro area is situated on a line from about Philadelphia to north central NJ.  The dew point here has dropped 8 degrees since midnight.

[Rtd208]

Tropical Storm Warning in effect here. 40-50 mph winds w/gusts up to 70 mph expected Tuesday afternoon and evening.

[SnoSki14]

Models ramping him up post landfall is pretty concerning given we'll likely be on its eastern side. 

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning everyone here in the NYC forum: Will add a cumulative rainfall map from yesterdays nw NJ totals, done 924AM. Legend has the conversion to inches...mostly e PA and nw NJ. 

See NHC/SPC/WPC/NWS office discussions for details on tonights, and Tuesday's separate event rainfalls but all tropical related, also surge/wind/isolated SVR and maybe even a TOR near and east of the center. 

PRE  tonight?-no guarantee, with EC modeling way west  to near ITH-BFD while other models 'try' to develop something in western NJ or eastern PA tonight northward into the Hud Valley-Catskills-Berks by dawn Tuesday. Very unsure how this will work--could be pockets of 4+ inches or 1 or 2 long narrow bands?.

Isaias wind Tuesday afternoon-evening. 00z/3 ensembles have track axis slightly different: EPS slightly east of GEFS.  No matter, it appears to me that LI, especially e LI and parts of CT will see squally wind gusts of 50-60 knots, power outages but not that much rain. Sometimes, these TS's have a surprise couple of hours of wrap-around strong west wind of 40-50 kt on the underside of the departing storm - that would be Tuesday evening for us.  

Isaias direct rainfall: Heaviest rain and associated FF risk should be in NJ/se NYS and ne PA for our NYC forum. Details to be determined but am going to post FFG graphics to show some of the more vulnerable locations, presuming 4+" occurs Tuesday afternoon.  MARFC 1 hour FFG blue colors I'd say are vulnerable pending heavy rain actually occurring, and then added the 6 hr guidance where 4" in 6 hours I'd think would prompt a warning somewhere in that county where guidance is under 4". Now we need to see what happens.  

A side note: not major but possibly of interest.  One thing that does happen with tropical southerly winds that I noticed in the past, lift going over the CT shore line enhances rainfall remarkably a few miles north of I95 in CT.  Something to see if occurs tonight-Tuesday.

Power outages: while concentrated east of the center,  I can also see problems over interior NJ and se NYS in squalls, broken tree limbs-associated power outages Tuesday afternoon-evening. Not saying there will be, but in my mind, not out of the question. 

I'll ensure I have enough cash on hand in case of any long duration power outage, and a full tank of gas, even here in far nw NJ. Not likely that this will come in handy here, but trying to think ahead. 

Added 00z/3 GEFS/EPS 850 wind ensembles for 18z Tue, as well as the brutal operational UKMET 850 wind field and the less impressive GGEM.  639A/3

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models ramping him up post landfall is pretty concerning given we'll likely be on its eastern side. 

The  trough interaction or partial phase will keep this stronger further north than usual from landfalling systems of similar strength in the Carolinas. You can see the model soundings on the 0z Euro and GFS supporting gusts to 70 mph or greater now on Long Island. So the TPC just adjusted their winds higher.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until Tuesday evening

 

 

[nycsnow]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The  trough interaction or partial phase will keep this stronger further north than usual from landfalling systems of similar strength in the Carolinas. You can see the model soundings on the 0z Euro and GFS supporting gusts to 70 mph or greater now on Long Island. So the TPC just adjusted their winds higher.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until Tuesday evening

 

 

Upton has me in southern brooklyn gusting to 70... do you see that as well on soundings?

[PB-99]

I am looking for an 80 mph wind gust show up on LI.

 

 

 

 

[Sportybx]

24 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Upton has me in southern brooklyn gusting to 70... do you see that as well on soundings?

That’s with the current track . If this happened to  get stronger ( with everything it went through ) I can see it happening . Can we see hurricane gusts here in the tri State area ? I believe we are also in MOON tide , any significant coastal flooding you think . 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Tropical Storm Warning in effect here. 40-50 mph winds w/gusts up to 70 mph expected Tuesday afternoon and evening.

I'll believe it when I see it.  Looks to be a soaker.  I wonder if any sport betting sites have the odds for the wind field?  I'd like a piece of that action...

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The  trough interaction or partial phase will keep this stronger further north than usual from landfalling systems of similar strength in the Carolinas. You can see the model soundings on the 0z Euro and GFS supporting gusts to 70 mph or greater now on Long Island. So the TPC just adjusted their winds higher.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until Tuesday evening

 

 

The only saving grace is that this storm will be moving quickly. Had it been a slow mover, we would probably be talking rain totals reminiscent of Hurricane Irene

[lee59]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

I'll believe it when I see it.  Looks to be a soaker.  I wonder if any sport betting sites have the odds for the wind field?  I'd like a piece of that action...

Yea I believe the only place to see winds like that would be at the beaches and over the water.  Some of the airports may see some gusts near 50-60.

[lee59]

Isaias now picking up forward speed, moving 13mph to the north.

[qg_omega]

Looks the worst it has in a day, was looking decent 6 hrs ago

[Tatamy]

Would any of the Mets care to comment on this...

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

27 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea I believe the only place to see winds like that would be at the beaches and over the water.  Some of the airports may see some gusts near 50-60.

Agreed, maybe JFK hits 60 but overall it’s 40-50 away from the island. The south shore was of JFK may gust to 70 somewhere with the LLJ enhancement 

[jm1220]

Always a risk for some tornadoes East of the track where feeder bands can pivot through. Other than that on the current path I wouldn’t expect much rain East of the city, maybe an inch if lucky. What we get here will come from the few feeder bands which comes down to luck. The heavy rain just like with Fay will be over NJ/Hudson Valley. Maybe some gusts over 60 on the coast which could knock some trees down/power out. Also some coastal flooding likely from the onshore wind/surge which should be fairly minor but the full moon will make it worse. 

[NJwx85]

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea I believe the only place to see winds like that would be at the beaches and over the water.  Some of the airports may see some gusts near 50-60.

Why would you say that ? The trough is going to ignite this storm up here.

Heaviest rain will be west of the city  and the strongest  winds will be in NYC east.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

its so weird how this low is tracking inland 

You can throw climo out the window

[wdrag]

Elevations on the backside may take a bit of a beating tomorrow night when the wind turns west...could gust 50-60MPH at High Point NJ and if we have 8" of rain by then(???), uproots etc with power out.  Will need to see day cycles etc. If it does so here, might do the same in Litchfield County if it tracks near HFD?

 

[SnoSki14]

50 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks the worst it has in a day, was looking decent 6 hrs ago

It should reintensify when it finally turns NNE in the direction of the shear vector. 

This will commence shortly as the jet is strongly pushing up against him now.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It should reintensify when it finally turns NNE in the direction of the shear vector. 

Shear has calmed down some, but still running in the 25-30kt range. Probably not going to have much of a window for intensification before landfall. 

After landfall in the Carolina's, it will be over land for much of the rest of its existence, so no ability to ride the gulf stream up.

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

The soundings are well mixed East of the center

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The soundings are well mixed East of the center

Right, but if the center tracks over the city or just West, wondering if this is limited to LI?

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Right, but if the center tracks over the city or just West, wondering if this is limited to LI?

Of course but looks up track over western NJ at the moment but subject to wobbles

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

I'm always skeptical when it comes to tropical systems so I get your point. Whatever happens will be over a short period of time, hopefully this tracks further west so we could see some stronger winds.

If this is shooting up 25-30mph there's bound to be some very strong gusts on the eastern side. Tornado threat exists as well.

Don't really think this is a rain threat for us so I'm not overly concerned about flooding.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm always skeptical when it comes to tropical systems so I get your point. Whatever happens will be over a short period of time, hopefully this tracks further west so we could see some stronger winds.

If this is shooting up 25-30mph there's bound to be some very strong gusts on the eastern side. Tornado threat exists as well.

Don't really think this is a rain threat for us so I'm not overly concerned about flooding.

You would have thought the rain event would be more of a concern than the wind aspect.

The Euro speeds up this storm . Thats  why it shows ridiculous  winds.

[MJO812]

This is slightly stronger version of Fay