Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[MJO812]

Just now, PB-99 said:

I really thorought a 2 was a layup by now over that 29c water.

Bust.

I will take my 5 inches of rain and root for a spin up tomorrow and Tuesday.

Looks like 2 very active days coming up.

It looked like it was

The shear is really taking a big toll on the storm

[lee59]

Yes the shear and dry air is no help at all. However the NHC indicated that the shear may not be as bad as originally thought. Anyway, it is not over the Andros Island anymore.

[qg_omega]

59 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I really thorought a 2 was a layup by now over that 29c water.

Bust.

I will take my 5 inches of rain and root for a spin up tomorrow and Tuesday.

Looks like 2 very active days coming up.

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

Looks intense!   LOL  

[PB-99]

23 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

Thought it was going to be well away from DR and Cuba decent.

That didn't happen.

[Brian5671]

I doubt it's a hurricane on the next update....

[NJwx85]

Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.

heavy rains for sure-maybe some gusty winds, but nothing crazy.   The flooding threat is the big concern for places that get storms tomorrow, the possible PRE and then west of the storm track for the main show...

[Snowlover11]

4-6” of rain is still worrisome, especially if we get a good soaking tomorrow.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

Ehh garbage. May not still be a hurricane. Good news for FL which has enough on its hands already 

[jm1220]

Speaking of which, downgraded to TS at 5pm

[SnoSki14]

Models pretty adamant that this gets a burst of energy once it's shooting up the coast, must be that anomalous jet streak. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see it trend stronger as it comes north, even if it's just inland. 

[Stormlover74]

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Speaking of which, downgraded to TS at 5pm

Nhc expecting to go back to a hurricane

[PB-99]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nhc expecting to go back to a hurricane

Goes back to a weak 1.

A half of foot in rain in spots will be wild 

[Santa Claus]

Don't write it too far off as shear forecasts were a bit more generous this weekend into early next week and again, there's hurricane soup in front of it.  But man it looks bad.  Might just get picked up as a big warm front by Monday.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Goes back to a weak 1.

A half of foot in rain in spots will be wild 

Agree

[Animal]

59 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yea wondering about tomorrow. Walt Drag’s post this morning was rather startling 

[lee59]

There appears to be quite a blow up of thunderstorms near the eye. Apparently these thunderstorms are not vertically aligned but will have to watch to see if that changes.

For anyone interested this is a pretty good hurricane info page. You can scroll down to the satellite view and see what I am talking about with the thunderstorm blow up.         https://spaghettimodels.com/

 

 

 

 

 

[NYC10023]

45 minutes ago, lee59 said:

There appears to be quite a blow up of thunderstorms near the eye. Apparently these thunderstorms are not vertically aligned but will have to watch to see if that changes.

For anyone interested this is a pretty good hurricane info page. You can scroll down to the satellite view and see what I am talking about with the thunderstorm blow up.         https://spaghettimodels.com/

 

Yep, just looked. Definitely a huge burst

 

 

 

 

[lee59]

I don't know but I am wondering if the eye could be reforming closer to the thunderstorm activity. Another words a shift to the NE.

[MJO812]

The heaviest rain shifted west on the 18z Euro just like the other models.

[forkyfork]

go with tc climo for this type of system. hugs the coast, best rains from the city west, best winds on central and eastern LI

[forkyfork]

these don't go far inland as they ride north unless a powerful block/phase forces them

[wdrag]

12 hours ago, Animal said:

Sorta of alarming with your post regarding tomorrow.

Sorry, been out at family gatherings the past couple of days (distanced).  Yes,  I "think" this is going to be a multi episodic day in our NYC forum Sunday. 

8A-1P n NJ se NYS maybe reaching NYC around Noon.  I expect 1 to 3 SVR's and associated 1" 30 minute drenchers moving ne in  WAA with diffluent 1000-500mb thickness and decent winds aloft. Then ~1 PM Sunday afternoon...ne PA/nw NJ and SE NYS shuts off, with potential for strong convection shifting only into a few spots of CT and central NJ. Thereafter, the  trough approaching from the west , should activate a scattered-broken line of severe thunderstorms in remaining relatively high CAPE between 5P and midnight.  First in e PA 5P-8P then possibly training SVR's or FFW in the I78-I195 corridor 8P-midnight.  This based on a shot of drying midday moving into ne NJ/interior se NYS, then everything rejuicing late in the day-as it's recovered,  and I think primed for release with the trough approaching.  Need other input-guidance assessments but that's the way I see it. HI in PHL should rise to 100 tomorrow which tells me plenty of instability feeding in on the sw flow ahead of the trough. 

I think a PRE is likely Monday night from e PA into se NYS and w CT... i could be too far south on this and/or I could be totally mistaken that it occurs at aLL, but if occurs, 4-8" IN 6-12 HOURS and isolated svr  within a fairly narrow swath. Again input from the experts on PRE sought. 

Isaias as you all see and think per NHC/local offices and AMWX.  

I have seen model guidance over 10" in in a small part of our area by 12z Wednesday.  PRE"s and Tropical storm rains don't necessarily overlap... if they do, that's bad news (significant flooding in  the overlap area which might be w CT?).  The only other thing on Isaias... I'd like this to look more like a TS in its rain bands by the time it gets to NC. I think jet dynamics might straighten this storm out, which has not been very pretty so far- yet it has, as bad as it's looked, it's been fairly powerful.  kind of an oddball storm which may mean it's odd all the way up the coast?

In summary not much change from what I saw on the 00z/1 cycle.  I have to take this one event at a time.  Right now, let's see if SVR reports can be fairly widespread in our area by 1201AM Monday.  Will reassess Sunday morning ~7A.  835P/1

[Neblizzard]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

these don't go far inland as they ride north unless a powerful block/phase forces them

How much you thinking for our area ? I’m in union county as well . 3-6 inches of rain ?

[MJO812]

Para gfs

[wdrag]

51 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

How much you thinking for our area ? I’m in union county as well . 3-6 inches of rain ?

Nt sure who're asking... but from my standpoint,  FFW likely, even if for only 4 hours.  BUT BUT BUT.. as good as this looks right now and has for several days... something always goes wrong.  If I'm working, I'd probably want to be safely home by Noonish Tuesday and may not have to work on Wednesday  due to the impacts-power outages and/or pockets of leftover flooding.  Your 3-6 for the event sounds good... might end up just near 3? or quite a bit more, Take the near 3 as a good start. Storm goes w of you, then little chance of 3, more like just 1.  WPC has you a good swath and the NAEFS looks big for NJ/NYC Hud Valley/far w CT. Lets see what happens. 

[lee59]

The blowup of clouds and storms still look to be sheared off to the east somewhat.

[Santa Claus]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Sorry, been out at family gatherings the past couple of days (distanced).  Yes,  I "think" this is going to be a multi episodic day in our NYC forum Sunday. 

8A-1P n NJ se NYS maybe reaching NYC around Noon.  I expect 1 to 3 SVR's and associated 1" 30 minute drenchers moving ne in  WAA with diffluent 1000-500mb thickness and decent winds aloft. Then ~1 PM Sunday afternoon...ne PA/nw NJ and SE NYS shuts off, with potential for strong convection shifting only into a few spots of CT and central NJ. Thereafter, the  trough approaching from the west , should activate a scattered-broken line of severe thunderstorms in remaining relatively high CAPE between 5P and midnight.  First in e PA 5P-8P then possibly training SVR's or FFW in the I78-I195 corridor 8P-midnight.  This based on a shot of drying midday moving into ne NJ/interior se NYS, then everything rejuicing late in the day-as it's recovered,  and I think primed for release with the trough approaching.  Need other input-guidance assessments but that's the way I see it. HI in PHL should rise to 100 tomorrow which tells me plenty of instability feeding in on the sw flow ahead of the trough. 

I think a PRE is likely Monday night from e PA into se NYS and w CT... i could be too far south on this and/or I could be totally mistaken that it occurs at aLL, but if occurs, 4-8" IN 6-12 HOURS and isolated svr  within a fairly narrow swath. Again input from the experts on PRE sought. 

Isaias as you all see and think per NHC/local offices and AMWX.  

I have seen model guidance over 10" in in a small part of our area by 12z Wednesday.  PRE"s and Tropical storm rains don't necessarily overlap... if they do, that's bad news (significant flooding in  the overlap area which might be w CT?).  The only other thing on Isaias... I'd like this to look more like a TS in its rain bands by the time it gets to NC. I think jet dynamics might straighten this storm out, which has not been very pretty so far- yet it has, as bad as it's looked, it's been fairly powerful.  kind of an oddball storm which may mean it's odd all the way up the coast?

In summary not much change from what I saw on the 00z/1 cycle.  I have to take this one event at a time.  Right now, let's see if SVR reports can be fairly widespread in our area by 1201AM Monday.  Will reassess Sunday morning ~7A.  835P/1

you're a f'n treasure @wdrag