wdrag Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Uncertainty is considerable and confidence in any severe storm today is below average. Feel best chance 3P-10P and mainly southern CT. Much greater confidence for an event to monitor late tonight-Friday morning, especially midnight-Noon when the front stalls, surface convergence produces heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in NJ-LI in high PWAT airmass, especially I78 south where 6 hour "isolated 3-4" rains could occur in Ocean, Monmouth or Mercer County. It is s of I78 where a storm may become severe after midnight and a little concerned about a supercell there early Friday. A fair amount of low level shear in a somewhat high CAPE environment is modeled down toward the Jersey shore s of Sandy Hook Friday morning. So not guaranteeing the second paragraph above but a number of models are heading in this direction as of 6AM/30. Meanwhile, some beneficial rainfall is seeming headed for parts of nw NJ, maybe even all of the forum area where storms missed last week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 Quick update at 1053A: Too much cirrus today for much if any SVR... still need to monitor CT after 5P. However: Tonight seems destined for some warnings in NJ and possibly LI. FFW in the most vulnerable tracks of 3-4" within 6 hours and I still think 1 or 2 storms overnight with damaging wind and a possible super cell I78 southward. This latter supercell risk, I'll need to recheck at 4P. I've added 1 and 6 hr COUNTY wide threshold FFG for triggering a possible FFW, courtesy of NWS BGM. Do note that the NWS offices have sub basin triggers and can really hone in on specific areas, should the needed rainfall occur. You should be seeing-hearing lightning and dogs barking overnight in parts of NJ and LI with FFW potential late tonight-Friday morning primarily in any heavily paved communities where rainfall exceeds 3".I think that will be between I78-I195 in NJ and probably parts of LI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just letting you know of near 40VIL developed just n part of Wantage NJ since 2PM... so far no warnings. Tha may not last too long. Haent had time to reevaluate but follow local statements and/or warnings. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 some storms getting ready to move across S CT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Got pretty dark here. Severe T storm warning for Northern Westchester, Fairfield county CT. Around Ossining now, Mt Kisco about to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 the hrrr has shown storms hitting around 6z for 5 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the hrrr has shown storms hitting around 6z for 5 runs in a row and the hrdps blasts us around 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: and the hrdps blasts us around 3am it shows the same scenario as the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 I think this will occur, big time. look for development between PHL-ABE* around 11-11P and toward NYC from there. All sorts of high dew point air moving northward from the Delmarva along with pressure falls. We've had two or three thunder episodes here. 215P, around 330 and about 520P. Dog barks when outside. Can't see what he hears. Wantage 0.07 so far. Added severe weather so far today in our area... the report in south central CT is a 47MPH wind gust at about 440P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 It was rumbly south and north of me. I got some drizzle that wasn't even measurable because none of the stations within 5 miles of me reported anything. It did drop the temp 15 degrees which is nice, it's 74 now and was 89 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 Have seen .88" in ne Sussex County NJ near where digital STP is 1.8", which could have occurred in reality unless hail contaminated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 I think we're very close to seeing a rapid increase in convection and subsequent east-northeast development - training near I78. Winds turning nw and soon north, to the north of I78, while hot and humid upper 80s with TD low-mid 70s south of I78 (non marine). A good sign is the remaining pings of small but heavy showers the PA entering se NYS at 745P. In the meantime, not sure what will happen to all that DELMARVA activity, maybe it's own separate entity into the night? This may be pretty interesting between midnight -10AM in the southern part of our NYC forum area-at least for R+/TR+. (I78-LI southward). 750P/30 and possibly my last of the night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 I hope that rain makes it to Long Island, we can use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Storms moving into Camden yards...the entire crowd left 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Storms moving into Camden yards...the entire crowd left i see what you did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Not seeing any rain here tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Euro very wet for areas south of the city tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Storms moving into Camden yards...the entire crowd left As an Oriole diehard I am both amused and incredibly triggered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Radar looking juicy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 A couple severe thunderstorm warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 I forgot about the thread here. Lots of lightning looking westward, getting ready for the 2 AM wakeup thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Pretty big area of heavy rain/severe storms about to move into the NYC metro area. Great job by @wdrag highlighting the potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: I forgot about the thread here. Lots of lightning looking westward, getting ready for the 2 AM wakeup thunder. Sooner than that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Under a warning here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Sooner than that CTC each and every second. I hate to look at my phone unless I miss something. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Mini bow feature with what looks like to me...a MCV? df? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Practically constant lightning. No wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Theres a tornado possible on the warning for the MCV like feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Absolutely pissing rain. Total FF stuff. The entire sky is condensing on my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 It's a carwash outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now