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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Just speaking climo....Niña tends to be snowy in December.

I wonder how much influence the ENSO state really has in today's rapidly warming world.

The Nino was completely decoupled from the pattern we saw last couple winters, wondering if the same will hold true this year. 

And finally is the era of cold/snowy winters over for good. We're seeing unprecedented warming with top 10 warmest months left and right since the super Nino. 

I wonder if warm/wet winters will be the future now and we just hope we could get lucky. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder how much influence the ENSO state really has in today's rapidly warming world.

The Nino was completely decoupled from the pattern we saw last couple winters, wondering if the same will hold true this year. 

And finally is the era of cold/snowy winters over for good. We're seeing unprecedented warming with top 10 warmest months left and right since the super Nino. 

I wonder if warm/wet winters will be the future now and we just hope we could get lucky. 

I don’t think they would stop suddenly, but it may be harder to get the cold periods needed for snow. Climate change doesn’t mean something won’t occur, but the frequency is different. 
 

Winter tracking won’t be as fun if COVID spikes during the winter and there’s no vaccine. Hope everyone stays safe.

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The next 8 days are averaging 81degs., or 5degs. AN.

GFS does have us at 5" total rain by this time next week.         Originally this period starting the 13th. had a stalled front with a TD spinning up near it at 850mb-------

Play around with last Tuesday's 850mb projection:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2020080412&fh=276

75*(96%RH) here at 6am, m. clear, haze.       80*(85%RH) by 11am.       82*(80%RH) at Noon.

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On 8/6/2020 at 10:08 AM, SACRUS said:

More 90s those years but this year overall coming close with a +2 June / +4 Jul and Aug looking +>1.5.   Not sure on any confirmation of the below with winds or tornadoes.  As far as the end of August timing looks potentially hotter relative to averages and actual's vs first half of Aug perhaps.

The 50s decade should be looked at for analogs for this period, if we get another bout of extreme heat towards the end of August.  Those years seem to match the last few on multiple levels (late summer heat, busy tropical seasons with multiple east coast hits, peak seasonal snows in March.)

 

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Morning thoughts...

At 9 am, temperatures in the region included:

New York City-JFK: 80°
New York City-LGA: 83°
New York City-NYC: 79°
Newark: 80°
Philadelphia: 78°

High temperatures should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region. Estimates for the above cities based on the latest guidance:

New York City-JFK: 86°
New York City-LGA: 93°
New York City-NYC: 90°
Newark: 92°
Philadelphia: 91°

Finally, for the second consecutive weekly period, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was at -0.5°C or below (-0.6°C). The probability of the development of a La Niña ahead of the upcoming winter has continued to increase. Such events following El Niño winters have featured a predominently positive EPO.

 

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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

At 9 am, temperatures in the region included:

New York City-JFK: 80°
New York City-LGA: 83°
New York City-NYC: 79°
Newark: 80°
Philadelphia: 78°

High temperatures should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region. Estimates for the above cities based on the latest guidance:

New York City-JFK: 86°
New York City-LGA: 93°
New York City-NYC: 90°
Newark: 92°
Philadelphia: 91°

Finally, for the second consecutive weekly period, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was at -0.5°C or below (-0.6°C). The probability of the development of a La Niña ahead of the upcoming winter has continued to increase. Such events following El Niño winters have featured a predominently positive EPO.

 

Don, it looks like Tuesday will be slightly cooler but more humid?

Also what are your thoughts on the storm for over the weekend and into early next week?  A rare early season coastal?

 

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86/72 and a hot one.  90s next 3 days ahead of front.  Temps low to mid 90s. Some of the warmer spots 95(+) Mon / Tue.  Wed toss up as storms and clouds timing needs to be watched.  Thursday warm and stormy.  Warm and wet By Friday 8/14 - Wed 8/19   with dominant onshore flow  caught between the Rockies ridge and weakness west of the Western Atlantic Ridge.  Cooler day or two possible 8/19 - 8/20 below average. 

Rockies ridge pushing strong heat into the Plains and GL by the 20th  should set the stage for summer theme with that heat spreading east producing a sizzling finish to the month.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, it looks like Tuesday will be slightly cooler but more humid?

Also what are your thoughts on the storm for over the weekend and into early next week?  A rare early season coastal?

 

Tuesday will likely be a little cooler, but readings could still approach or reach 90. I want to see additional guidance before having confidence in the possible weekend storm.

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45 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Too bad it's humid subtropical and not Mediterranean.

Wonder what kind of crops we'll be able to grow here in 20 years.

I will take the higher dew points and wet year round over the severe droughts that Mediterranean climates have been experiencing recently.

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

86/72 and a hot one.  90s next 3 days ahead of front.  Temps low to mid 90s. Some of the warmer spots 95(+) Mon / Tue.  Wed toss up as storms and clouds timing needs to be watched.  Thursday warm and stormy.  Warm and wet By Friday 8/14 - Wed 8/19   with dominant onshore flow  caught between the Rockies ridge and weakness west of the Western Atlantic Ridge.  Cooler day or two possible 8/19 - 8/20 below average. 

Rockies ridge pushing strong heat into the Plains and GL by the 20th  should set the stage for summer theme with that heat spreading east producing a sizzling finish to the month.

Great for the Perseids!  I saw a green meteor streak last night!

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I will take the higher dew points and wet year round over the severe droughts that Mediterranean climates have been experiencing recently.

I like the droughts more, as the higher dew points result in breathing difficulties and more pollution.  When are we going to resume our streak of 100+ summers?

Do you think it will be possible to invent a global dehumidifier to suck out all this excess humidity?  After all, water vapor is a GHG.

 I wouldn't mind if humankind found a way to lower sea levels by reclaiming some of the land lost to the oceans (70% oceans is a little too much, it should be more like 50% ocean 50% land.)

It's high time humanity started tinkering with the environment to fix it rather than just let it all go downhill.  Looks like we will be doing the same on Mars within the next few decades, as NASA just sent a rover there that converts CO2 to O2.

 

 

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