August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[wdrag]

Last week it looked to me that Tuesday-Aug 11 might be a svr day but models have slowed and changed so that seems to be off the boards. Instead a 4 day heat wave (Sun-Wed) may be getting started this afternoon in parts of the non marine influenced NYForum coastal plain.  Nothing outrageous but warmer than normal for sure. 

Also...noticed some for the global modeling has virtually no rain for the western 1/3 of the country (Rockies west to Pac Coast) the next 10 days.  Suggest parts of the east will have more than normal QPF... wet begets wet (sometimes) in a generally stable trough ridge pattern. 9A/9

[Rtd208]

Not to start digging into winter yet since we are still in August but Larry Cosgrove hinted that this could be another disappointing winter for cold and snow lover in our area. I have zero expectations going into the winter especially after the last couple.

[SACRUS]

83/71 as we heat things up today.  Warmer spots with a good shot at 90s with most others warm in the upper 80s.  Next heatwave of the season Mon - Wed as temps spike Tue/Wed head of front. Low to mid 90s with stray spots 95(+). Storms possible each night with front arriving later Wed, pending on that arrival and any debris clouds Wed is a tossup day for 90s.  Beyond there Thu 8/13 through next weekend 8/15-8/16 warm and stormy.  More of a Florida-like pattern : sun out very warm but many clouds and steamy.  Onshore flow at some point in the period may extend through the beginning of next week (8/17).  Long range we may see a day or two true cooldown  before the Rockies/Plains ridge and heat shifts east into the GL/OV and we heat things up here after  in the 8/19 or 8/20 period.   Caught between the ridges .  WAR still the unknown if it expands west to hook and really heat things up...

[SleetStormNJ]

Too early to make those calls........LC is just guessing.

[SACRUS]

Dew points in low 70s.  Heat index values approaching upper 90s today with temps 88 - 92 range.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Too early to make those calls........LC is just guessing.

Some of the seasonal models aren’t very appealing. However, at this point in time, skill is very low. Some La Niña events have been snowy, but others have not. 

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some of the seasonal models aren’t very appealing. However, at this point in time, skill is very low. Some La Niña events have been snowy, but others have not. 

Exactly, there are other factors that drive a winter pattern. With that said LC will never outlook big winters and usually leans on the warmer and less snowy side of things. I once again have zero expectations this winter, let the cards fall where they may.

[bluewave]

All our stations have had a top 6 warmest June 1st to August 8th.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8	Missing Count
1	1994-08-08	79.5	0
2	2010-08-08	79.4	0
3	1993-08-08	79.3	0
4	2011-08-08	78.9	0
5	1999-08-08	77.9	0
6	2020-08-08	77.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8	Missing Count
1	2010-08-08	78.3	0
2	1999-08-08	77.6	0
3	1966-08-08	77.5	0
4	1949-08-08	77.2	0
5	1983-08-08	77.1	0
6	2020-08-08	77.0	0
-	1994-08-08	77.0	0
-	1908-08-08	77.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8	Missing Count
1	2010-08-08	79.6	0
2	2020-08-08	79.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8	Missing Count
1	2010-08-08	77.7	0
2	2011-08-08	76.3	0
3	1983-08-08	75.8	0
4	2020-08-08	75.7	0

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8	Missing Count
1	2010-08-08	75.2	0
2	2020-08-08	75.1	4

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 8	Missing Count
1	1999-08-08	75.4	0
2	2010-08-08	75.1	0
3	2020-08-08	74.5	0

[Rtd208]

Current temp 85/DP 73/RH 66%

Looks like I will make a run at 90 or above today.

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some of the seasonal models aren’t very appealing. However, at this point in time, skill is very low. Some La Niña events have been snowy, but others have not. 

We are due for a string of ratters, so it would not shocked me if we have another mild/snowless winter. La Niña is  typically not snowy around here. 
 

Personally, I’m in no rush for winter. With covid restrictions and cold weather it makes for a depressing time. The warmer weather has at least made the pandemic more tolerable 

[KEITH L.I]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some of the seasonal models aren’t very appealing. However, at this point in time, skill is very low. Some La Niña events have been snowy, but others have not. 

I wouldn't trust seasonal models,they are usually wrong.La Nina winters usually are front ended.Most have chilly falls and cold December's

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Not to start digging into winter yet since we are still in August but Larry Cosgrove hinted that this could be another disappointing winter for cold and snow lover in our area. I have zero expectations going into the winter especially after the last couple.

We've never had back to back sub 10 inch snowfall winters so this will probably be the first (96-98 dangerously close)

[wdrag]

Buildups here in nw NJ, and small showers se PA at 1150A/9. 

[SACRUS]

Noon Roundup

LGA: 87/63
EWR: 86/69
PHL: 85/70

TEB: 85/69
BLM: 84/70
New Brnswck: 84/71
NYC: 83/69
JFK: 81/72
ISP: 81/71
TTN: 81/70

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

I wouldn't trust seasonal models,they are usually wrong.La Nina winters usually are front ended.Most have chilly falls and cold December's

FWIW, the EPS seasonal idea has temperature anomalies across North America that are similar to those of winter 1998-99. Fortunately, at least right now, that’s far in the future and a lot can change.

[Rtd208]

It looks like things could potentially get pretty wet again from mid/late week into next weekend.

[SACRUS]

1PM Roundup

LGA: 88
New Brnswck: 87
EWR: 87
PHL: 86
NYC: 85
ACY: 85
TEB: 85
TTN: 84
BLM: 84
JFK: 82
ISP: 81

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ Raindrops 141-203P.  Trace.  That's my mPING report updated at 204P.  Some big drops in there.  It's wet but not .01, so far. 

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Not to start digging into winter yet since we are still in August but Larry Cosgrove hinted that this could be another disappointing winter for cold and snow lover in our area. I have zero expectations going into the winter especially after the last couple.

I think we have entered another longer term snowless era....persistent +NAO and EPO seems to be going more and more positive

[Rtd208]

Current temp 90/DP 71/RH 53%

[Rtd208]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

FWIW, the EPS seasonal idea has temperature anomalies across North America that are similar to those of winter 1998-99. Fortunately, at least right now, that’s far in the future and a lot can change.

I still stand by this, but if we don't see at least one significant/major snowfall in December then more times then not it will be a warmer and overall snowless winter.

[doncat]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think we have entered another longer term snowless era....persistent +NAO and EPO seems to be going more and more positive

I remember having those same fears on a few occasions in the 90's and earlier 2000's, and things righted themselves and worked out ok...Lets hope it happens that way again.

[wdrag]

21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I still stand by this, but if we don't see at least one significant/major snowfall in December then more times then not it will be a warmer and overall snowless winter.

Especially NYC, at least for snow, per a private NYS TV met study years ago.   Makes sense... If you don't have Dec,  you have along days to go to make up.  Boston January-March 2015 was an anomaly. 

[doncat]

We really don't average that much snow in Dec...Metro stations around 4.5" or so, and big storms are uncommon. We've been spoiled  lately to think otherwise.

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I still stand by this, but if we don't see at least one significant/major snowfall in December then more times then not it will be a warmer and overall snowless winter.

I agree. For now, I take no position on the coming winter. I do have some concerns based on some of the long-range guidance heading into the fall.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

I still stand by this, but if we don't see at least one significant/major snowfall in December then more times then not it will be a warmer and overall snowless winter.

The December rule seems to work really well for La Niña or Niña-like years. The last two winters were very Niña-like with the ridge north of Hawaii and Maritime Continent MJO phases dominating. Both Decembers NYC finished under 3 inches of snow.  The snowier La Niña winters of 16-17 and 17-18 finished with December reaching above 3.0”. Neutral or El Niño type years low December snowfall didn’t tell us much about the rest of the seasonal snowfall. The December 2015  super El Niño T and +13 temperature departure was a great example of this. NYC had its greatest snowstorm on record in January. But 7.0” or more in December most years since 2000 was a good indication of a 40”+ season.

La Niña or La Niña-like years bolded

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2013-2014	0.0	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4
2012-2013	0.0	4.7	0.4	1.5	12.2	7.3	0.0	26.1
2011-2012	2.9	0.0	0.0	4.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	7.4
2010-2011	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	61.9
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0.0	51.4
2008-2009	0.0	T	6.0	9.0	4.3	8.3	T	27.6
2007-2008	0.0	T	2.9	T	9.0	T	0.0	11.9
2006-2007	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.6	3.8	6.0	T	12.4
2005-2006	0.0	T	9.7	2.0	26.9	1.3	0.1	40.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	3.0	15.3	15.8	6.9	0.0	41.0
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	19.8	17.3	0.7	4.8	0.0	42.6
2002-2003	T	T	11.0	4.7	26.1	3.5	4.0	49.3
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	T	3.5	T	T	T	3.5
2000-2001	T	0.0	13.4	8.3	9.5	3.8	0.0	35.0
1999-2000	0.0	0.0	T	9.5	5.2	0.4	1.2	16.3

[Allsnow]

Just speaking climo....Niña tends to be snowy in December.

[CIK62]

Was on beach here from 1pm-4pm.      SE wind all the way with T between 78*-81*.    Clouds held off.

FWIW, the government site has the winter pegged as 1.6x more likely to be AN versus BN as of now.         This summer may have been 4.5x more likely to be AN than BN when the lead time was the same as the winter's is now.

Let's not forget Judah Cohen was on the Weather Channel last Dec. 02 hawking NYC getting to 40" for the season.       It was actually snowing here and in Boston at that moment.     Gee, it only snowed here on about 5 or 6 different days.       One  month later he said the winter is over-----some anomalous warming in the ionosphere had cooled the stratosphere and thus the troposphere below had to warm.

[donsutherland1]

Anniversary of the 1723 Hurricane:

On this date in 1723, a possible hurricane made landfall in the Middle Atlantic region. The storm brought high winds and heavy rain to such cities as Philadelphia and New York, neither of which appeared to have had any memory of a hurricane. Weather conditions deteriorated rapidly during the mid-morning. In both cities, the wind started from the northeast but then veered to the southeast. The winds diminished during the latter part of the afternoon as the storm pushed away from the region.

The Boston News-Letter wrote of the storm's impact on Philadelphia:

...there was a violent northeast storm of wind and rain, the wind shifting till about noon, and then blew very hard at southeast, which caused a great disorder among the shipping, and blew down several chimneys, a great many trees, and it did very much damage to fruit, the tide being very high a wharf was wash'd away, and damage was done to several other.
That same newspaper reported the following account from New York:

We are likewise inform'd from New York, that they had the like storm, at the same time, which broke up the wharffs from one end of the city to the other, drove all the vessels ashore, except three and broke three sloops to pieces; the tide higher than ever was known here, sugar and goods in warehouses and cellars, were damaged; the market house with several others were blown down, tyles & covering of houses blown off. Vast quantities of boards, timber, staves, boats, canoes and rubbish lies in heaps.

The American Weekly Mercury reported the following account of the storm in New York:

Yesterday about 8 or 9 a clock the wind came up here at northeast, and veered about more to the southeast and from 12 a clock till 4 it blew very hard, with rain, insomuch that it has broke up all the wharfs from one end of the city to the other, drove all the vessels (except three) onshore, and three sloops are broke all to pieces: the water came up into the city higher than ever was known before and has done abundance of damage to sugar and other goods in merchants cellars, the market house before the coffee house is blown down and several other houses, and the tyles and coverings of many houses were blown off. And if the storm had continued till the next high water, all the houses by the waterside would have been destroyed. All the wharfs round the great dock is drove away. And in the slips there is such vast quantities of boards, timber, staves, boats, canoes and other rubbish lies in heaps in such manner as was never seen here before.  The pyrate sloop which Capt. Solgard brought in, was forced to cut her mast and is drove away.

 

[donsutherland1]

Very warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are likely for tomorrow and Tuesday.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around July 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was +8.92.

On August 6, the SOI was +25.73. That was the highest figure since October 14, 2018 when the SOI was +27.20. In all three August cases where the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75°C or colder, a La Niña winter followed. The most recent such case was August 2010.     

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +-0.028.

On August 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.626 (RMM). The August 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.976.

The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at such a high amplitude is uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.2°.