August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Cfa]

Topped out at 88 here, low of 69.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/4/2020 at 10:15 AM, SACRUS said:

Not sure, also plenty of moisture and storms next 10 days.  Id say we're behind 93, 91, 2010, 88 by 10 days having not much in May and June.  We'll see what it looks like with totals in the next 60 days.

yeah this is nothing like the historic heat of 1993 and 2010. Those heatwaves were unlike anything I've ever seen before.

Tony, I see you referenced late August sizzling heat, do you think it could be similar to 1953?  We've had a pattern similar to the 50s the last few years, with March being the snowiest month and a high number of TC.

Also, I see there were wind gusts of 96 mph (DE) and 109 mph (NJ) reported, were both of these in tornadoes?  I wasn't aware that tornadic winds get reported in the same data as regular TC winds.  In that case, wouldn't the 125 mph estimate for the EF2 tornado that was reported also get into the same dataset?

 

 

[wdrag]

Hi... have regained a bit of situational awareness after being without internet for a day.

Possibility of isolated 4" rainfall parts of LI/NNJ by Noon Saturday, from several episodes of heavy showers/thunderstorms. No topic at this time due to uncertainty of 4+, and FFG not alarmingly low.  Will rereview late today.  Iso embedded severe possible as well in one of those episodes. Favorable RRQ of the UL jet, PWAT near 1.8" north of a front with waves of weak pressure falls leading the more notable episodes east-northeast across the southern part of our NYC forum area.  Ocean County seems to be at greatest risk for iso FF/SVR. WPC D1-2 has the overall picture of general amounts. 

Sunday should be a rain free day for our NYC forum. 

One or two episodes of thunderstorms expected Monday-Tuesday, with Tuesday's having a small chance of severe PWAT, CAPE and KI are up - though late in the season and wind flow aloft not remarkable.  Still something to recheck in future cycles. This post does not look beyond Tuesday with any confidence.   605A/6

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 83degs., or 7degs. AN.

77*(61%RH) here at 6am, p.sunny.

[Rtd208]

It looks like KDIX radar is down, again.

[MJO812]

More scattered  showers today

Uggh

[Stormlover74]

The radar doesn't seem to match Upton's dry forecast

[psv88]

64 last night. Coolest in a long time

[bluewave]

Sharp contrast between the record rainfall around Newark and the New England drought. Wettest 7-1 to 8-5  at Newark vs the 2nd driest at BDL. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 5	Missing Count
1	2020-08-05	12.23	0
2	1988-08-05	9.98	0
3	1984-08-05	9.46	0
4	1967-08-05	9.44	0
5	1948-08-05	9.23	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 5	Missing Count
1	2001-08-05	1.27	0
2	2020-08-05	1.28	0
3	1949-08-05	1.42	0
4	1962-08-05	1.64	0
5	1961-08-05	1.69	0

[Rjay]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

More scattered  showers today

Uggh

Scattered showers???

 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Scattered showers???

 

Yes later on

[SACRUS]

70 with some rain and a few rumbles of thunder.  This batch of rain looks to move out in the next 2 hours (by noon).  A bit of a stormy few days (today/Thu - Sat) storms and clouds keep temps in the 80s.  Sunday we start warming things up with the warmer spots a chance at 90 and to start the next potential heatwave.  Mon - Wed widespread heat with hotter spots possible 95(+) as 850MB temps are forecast >18c.  Storms possible so will need to track timing and clouds/debris clouds.  By Thu ridge is building over the upper MW and flow will start to come around onshore what  should be a few days as we get to the mid month period.  Beyond there strong heat in the plains and MW and North looks to overspread and push a hot finish to the month.

[SACRUS]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah this is nothing like the historic heat of 1993 and 2010. Those heatwaves were unlike anything I've ever seen before.

Tony, I see you referenced late August sizzling heat, do you think it could be similar to 1953?  We've had a pattern similar to the 50s the last few years, with March being the snowiest month and a high number of TC.

Also, I see there were wind gusts of 96 mph (DE) and 109 mph (NJ) reported, were both of these in tornadoes?  I wasn't aware that tornadic winds get reported in the same data as regular TC winds.  In that case, wouldn't the 125 mph estimate for the EF2 tornado that was reported also get into the same dataset?

 

 

More 90s those years but this year overall coming close with a +2 June / +4 Jul and Aug looking +>1.5.   Not sure on any confirmation of the below with winds or tornadoes.  As far as the end of August timing looks potentially hotter relative to averages and actual's vs first half of Aug perhaps.

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

64 last night. Coolest in a long time

 

[rclab]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

 

The way NYC temperatures are trending, we’ll be lucky to see the Adirondack lows after Thanksgiving. As always .....

[doncat]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Sharp contrast between the record rainfall around Newark and the New England drought. Wettest 7-1 to 8-5  at Newark vs the 2nd driest at BDL. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 5	Missing Count
1	2020-08-05	12.23	0
2	1988-08-05	9.98	0
3	1984-08-05	9.46	0
4	1967-08-05	9.44	0
5	1948-08-05	9.23	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 5	Missing Count
1	2001-08-05	1.27	0
2	2020-08-05	1.28	0
3	1949-08-05	1.42	0
4	1962-08-05	1.64	0
5	1961-08-05	1.69	0

Wow big difference in relatively short distance...about 9" here during that period.

[SACRUS]

11 minutes ago, doncat said:

Wow big difference in relatively short distance...about 9" here during that period.

if you look back and see the big rain totals in NE-NJ in the future, you'd think it was a wet and terrible July.  But you would need to look at the daily obs and see the big rains came by way of 3 or 4 big rainfalls (Fay, tstorms, etc)

[doncat]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

if you look back and see the big rain totals in NE-NJ in the future, you'd think it was a wet and terrible July.  But you would need to look at the daily obs and see the big rains came by way of 3 or 4 big rainfalls (Fay, tstorms, etc)

Did have 13 days with measurable rain however and 8 days with 0.25" or greater which is pretty good for July. Of course it varied across our region...but like you said it won't be remembered as wet and terrible.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, doncat said:

Wow big difference in relatively short distance...about 9" here during that period.

Plenty of tropical moisture under that big Hudson Bay block. So the end result was a very sharp rainfall gradient. 
 

 

 

[dWave]

53 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

Its all relative..lows 70s still felt cool to me esp with managable humidity. Thought id have an outside shot at getting below 70, but 72 was the low.  Compared to typical lows of mid 70s to low 80s w/ high humidity this summer this is a very cool day. Next few nights look like small chances to get a touch below 70 within the core UHI, if not then who know how long it'll go.

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, dWave said:

Its all relative..lows 70s still felt cool to me esp with managable humidity. Thought id have an outside shot at getting below 70, but 72 was the low.  Compared to typical lows of mid 70s to low 80s w/ high humidity this summer this is a very cool day. Next few nights look like small chances to get a touch below 70 within the core UHI, if not then who know how long it'll go.

Looks like the 64°/70° minimum streak continues for HPN and LGA.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 64 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	34	2020-08-05
2	31	2013-07-24
3	25	2011-08-10
4	24	1961-09-14
5	23	2019-08-07

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	34	2020-08-05
-	34	2006-08-10
2	32	1980-08-15
3	29	2018-08-19
4	28	2010-07-30
5	24	1999-08-08
-	24	1995-08-05

 

[SACRUS]

Sun breaks now and up to a steamy 80/69.

[donsutherland1]

Today, the SOI was +25.73, which was its highest figure since October 14, 2018. In all three August cases when the SOI rose to +25.00 or above and the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75C or below, winter saw a La Niña. The most recent such case was August 2010.

[the_other_guy]

finally a pleasant day. Almost Sept like.

77F. Not to humid

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unsettled with showers and thunderstorms around. Some of the thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours. Warmer weather will return for the weekend.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around July 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The Region 3.4 anomaly is the lowest such figure in July since 2010. Since weekly recordkeeping commenced in 1990, July 1998 was the only other summer following an El Niño winter that saw a comparably cool Region 3.4 anomaly. Both cases went on to have a very warm September and warmer than normal autumn. They diverged in December with the state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) making a decisive difference.

The SOI was +25.73. That was the highest figure since October 14, 2018 when the SOI was +27.20. In all three Augustcases where the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75°C or colder, a La Niña winter followed. The most recent such case was August 2010.     

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.409.

On August 5, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.854 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.646.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

 

[SACRUS]

8/6

PHL: 83
EWR: 82
LGA: 82
NYC: 82
New Brnswck: 82
TEB: 82
BLM: 80
TTN: 80
ACY: 79
ISP: 79
JFK: 79

[Cfa]

82/67 here today. 0.02” of rain fell.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 83degs., or 7degs. AN.

71*(80%RH) here at 6am., overcast-light rain.

[donsutherland1]

Central Park reported a temperature of 66 degrees this morning. That was the Park’s coolest temperature since June 29 when the thermometer fell to 65 degrees.

[nycwinter]

feels nice in manhattan today ..