Rtd208 Posted August 4, 2020 Author Share Posted August 4, 2020 High for the day yesterday was 92 here. Picked up 0.28" of rain for the day yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 83degs., or 7degs. AN. GOING TO BE THE WIND AND NOT THE RAIN HERE TODAY. MAYBE 1.5" ONLY, BUT 60-70MPH GUSTS NEAR 2PM. TURNED OUT TO BE NEITHER AROUND HERE! 7am: near 36.1N 77.7W Passing 50 miles to our west right now, 2pm------just a Flop here? Any good Thunder Storm could out punch this guy. 77*(94%RH) here at 6am, gloomy low stratus. 71*(93%RH) at 2pm. Sun and 79*(68%RH) at 4pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 75/73 south winds ahead of Isaias. 0.72 in the bucker since last night. WAR keeps the heaviest rains into WNJ/EPA but stronger winds here. Plenty on Isaias beig discussed. beyond Isaias Wed back to the regularly scheduled warmth. Warmer spots with next shot at 90. Thursday more humid and return of almost daily storms lasting through the weekend. Warm and wet weekend when cloudy temps mid/upper 80s stray 90 or so. Return of the Onshore / Onshore strikes back. 8/12 - 8/15 or so. Massive ridge building northern Plains / MW and north of the area. We get in on the return flow of the ridge causing lots of onshore flow next week. Heat is all around ala Late May and June and warmer SST should keep the area warmer than normal, especially inland but unlike May and June, should see Florida-like routine, almost daily storms chances. Stronger, sustained heat towards the end of next week as that massive ridge and 850MB >16c overspread the region. Looking like a warm steamy open of August then a hot second act. The hunt for 90s Wed 8/5 : warmer spots Sun 8/9 - Tue 8/11: pending on clouds could see more widespread near or low 90s degree readings 8/15 and beyond : widespread 90s looking possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Dewpoint up 76 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 Should break the clouds after 4/5PM for a nice sunset. Late PM highs? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 This was probably the most impressive run of heat that we ever had between two tropical storms. Fay came through back on July 10th. Since then, there has been a record breaking number of 90° days at LGA for this period. LGA tied the record for 95° days. They also tied the record for 70° minimums. In the past, tropical systems usually came at the end of record periods of heat like in August 1955. But this may be a first to have another tropical storm before the heat began. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jul 10 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 2020-08-03 17 0 2 2011-08-03 14 0 3 2016-08-03 13 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Jul 10 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 2020-08-03 9 0 - 1999-08-03 9 0 2 1955-08-03 7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jul 10 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 2020-08-03 25 0 - 2006-08-03 25 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 @bluewave. How were your winds last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 48 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 75/73 south winds ahead of Isaias. 0.72 in the bucker since last night. WAR keeps the heaviest rains into WNJ/EPA but stronger winds here. Plenty on Isaias beig discussed. beyond Isaias Wed back to the regularly scheduled warmth. Warmer spots with next shot at 90. Thursday more humid and return of almost daily storms lasting through the weekend. Warm and wet weekend when cloudy temps mid/upper 80s stray 90 or so. Return of the Onshore / Onshore strikes back. 8/12 - 8/15 or so. Massive ridge building northern Plains / MW and north of the area. We get in on the return flow of the ridge causing lots of onshore flow next week. Heat is all around ala Late May and June and warmer SST should keep the area warmer than normal, especially inland but unlike May and June, should see Florida-like routine, almost daily storms chances. Stronger, sustained heat towards the end of next week as that massive ridge and 850MB >16c overspread the region. Looking like a warm steamy open of August then a hot second act. The hunt for 90s Wed 8/5 : warmer spots Sun 8/9 - Tue 8/11: pending on clouds could see more widespread near or low 90s degree readings 8/15 and beyond : widespread 90s looking possible. Endless heat. I think we'll set record 90 degree days this year. Also more tropical activity seems inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: @bluewave. How were your winds last night? Estimated wind gusts around 45 -50 mph with small branches and plenty of leaves blown down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Endless heat. I think we'll set record 90 degree days this year. Also more tropical activity seems inevitable. Not sure, also plenty of moisture and storms next 10 days. Id say we're behind 93, 91, 2010, 88 by 10 days having not much in May and June. We'll see what it looks like with totals in the next 60 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 4, 2020 Share Posted August 4, 2020 6 hours ago, SACRUS said: Should break the clouds after 4/5PM for a nice sunset. Late PM highs? Or before 3:30 and now up to 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 Isaias brought high winds and heavy rains to the region today. Isaias passed west of New York City with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. At the time, Isaias was racing north-northeastward at 40 mph. Parts of the region experienced wind gusts past 70 mph. Sites reporting wind gusts of 70 mph or above included: Berkeley Twp, NJ: 75 mph Blue Point, NY: 71 mph Cape May NOS, NJ: 75 mph Grasonville, MD: 71 mph Great Gull Island, NY: 73 mph Great South Bay, NY: 75 mph Farmingdale, NY: 78 mph Jackson Heights, NY: 73 mph New York City-JFK Airport: 70 mph Ocean City, NJ: 72 mph Rutgers, NJ: 70 mph Smyrna Landing (2 NW), DE: 96 mph Stony Brook, NY: 75 mph Toms River, NJ: 70 mph Maritime Stations: Barnegat Inlet Light, NJ: 75 mph Long Beach Island: 109 mph Daily record rainfall was set at sites including: Albany: 3.91" (old record: 1.40", 1915) Allentown: 4.92" (old record: 2.47", 1915) Binghamton: 1.53" (old record: 0.78", 1959) Burlington: 2.03" (old record: 1.74", 1995) ***through 8 pm*** Philadelphia: 4.16" (old record: 2.74") Scranton: 2.42" (old record: 1.33", 1974) Wilmington, DE: 4.48" (old record: 2.00", 1915) Following Isaias' passage, the clouds broke, the sun returned and the wind diminished. As Isaias heads northward into Canada, tranquil and warmer weather will be in store for tomorrow. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around July 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The Region 3.4 anomaly is the lowest such figure in July since 2010. Since weekly recordkeeping commenced in 1990, July 1998 was the only other summer following an El Niño winter that saw a comparably cool Region 3.4 anomaly. Both cases went on to have a very warm September and warmer than normal autumn. They diverged in December with the state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) making a decisive difference. The SOI was +2.55. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.427. On August 3, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.074 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.781. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 8/4 ACY: 84 LGA: 83 PHL: 83 JFK: 82 EWR: 81 New Brnswck: 81 TTN: 81 TEB: 81 ISP: 80 BLM: 79 NYC: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 82degs., or 6degs. AN. 74*(87%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 87*(52%RH) by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 80/67 here. Cleanup day today post Isaias. Temps near 90 with some of the warmer spots reaching 90. Thu - Sat unsettled with numerous showers and storm chances should cap temps mainly in the 80s. By Sunday we are warming things back up with some of the warmer spots starting the next potential heatwave. Ridge building into the Plains with overall higher heights along the east. ECM has 850s in the >16c Mon/Tue and >18c Wed/Thu. Still looks ripe for evening storms on most days. Beyond there could see more onshore barrage which looked likely earlier next week , now towards the end of next week and middle of the month. All signs point to warmer and wetter than normal with potential sizzling finish to August in the last week or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Beyond there could see more onshore barrage which looked likely earlier next week , now towards the end of next week and middle of the month. All signs point to warmer and wetter than normal with potential sizzling finish to August in the last week or more. This'll end up a top year for summer storms, including two direct hit tropical systems. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 The next 2 days doesnt look good with scattered thunderstorms popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 This summer has been amazing! I love the heat, storms, and hurricanes! Keep it coming! Do we really want winter with 50’s and rain? No thanks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Do we really want winter with 50’s and rain? That's my jam. But I have enjoyed this summer as well. The amateur enthusiast can find a port in any storm (or lack thereof). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This summer has been amazing! I love the heat, storms, and hurricanes! Keep it coming! Do we really want winter with 50’s and rain? No thanks I just can’t agree. The heat has always bothered me more than the cold. I guess you could say winter storms can be as destructive as summer storms, but I like snow more than rain. I get that some just like exciting weather, though. I hope that the pattern change comes soon as it has been hot since the end of June. Hopefully by end of August or September. Beyond mid-August, we’re still pretty much guessing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 High 90 today, but with dews falling to the upper 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 High of 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 Just missed another one with an 89° high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 High was 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 4 hours ago, mattinpa said: I just can’t agree. The heat has always bothered me more than the cold. I guess you could say winter storms can be as destructive as summer storms, but I like snow more than rain. I get that some just like exciting weather, though. I hope that the pattern change comes soon as it has been hot since the end of June. Hopefully by end of August or September. Beyond mid-August, we’re still pretty much guessing. I would've liked to see at least one 100 degree day for all this heat we've had. It just doesn't seem memorable to me unless it hits 100 at the coast at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I would've liked to see at least one 100 degree day for all this heat we've had. It just doesn't seem memorable to me unless it hits 100 at the coast at least once. Yeah there have been so many 90s here that a 100 couldn’t hurt anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 88 in Syosset. Muttontown offline at 6:27 am when internet went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 8/5 ACY: 90 LGA: 90 EWR: 88 PHL: 88 JFK: 88 TEB: 88 BLM: 87 New Brnswck: 87 TTN: 86 ISP: 86 NYC: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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