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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Western Atlantic Ridge strength forecast  has been too weak vs what has been occurring. This should mean winds may be bigger threat here tomorrow vs the widespread flooding rains which now look west of the immediate metro areas. EPA.NWNJ

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LGA moves into 3rd place through yesterday for the longest streak of not falling below 70°. ISP also in 3rd place for longest streak of not falling below 65.° FRG is in 1st place for the longest streak of not falling below 70°. HPN in 1st place for not dropping below 64 degrees. BDR is in 1st place for longest streak of not dropping below 68°.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 34 2006-08-10
2 32 1980-08-15
3 31 2020-08-02
4 29 2018-08-19
5 28 2010-07-30

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 65 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 42 1988-08-16
2 32 2013-07-24
- 32 1980-08-15
3 31 2020-08-02
- 31 2019-08-09

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 29 2020-08-02
2 15 2010-07-25
- 15 2003-08-16
3 13 2006-08-07

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 64 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 31 2020-08-02
- 31 2013-07-24
2 25 2011-08-10
3 24 1961-09-14
Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 68 
for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 29 2020-08-02
2 20 2010-07-25
- 20 1994-08-04

 

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Looks like we are following with a trilogy to late may and June with onshore barrage 8/7 - 8/12/13th then some strong heat.  Pattern locked and doesnt want to budge.  Tropical implications are FL/ GOM threats for that time

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Looks like we are following with a trilogy to late may and June with onshore barrage 8/7 - 8/12/13th then some strong heat.  Pattern locked and doesnt want to budge.  Tropical implications are FL/ GOM threats for that time

a bit far out, but good weather for the peak of the Perseids Aug 12-13?

 

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Today was another very warm day with readings again reaching the upper 80s and even lower 90s in some parts of the region. However, clouds will be increasing overnight and an increasingly stormy day lies ahead for tomorrow as Isaias advances north-northeastward. At the height of the storm, winds could gust past 65 mph along coastal New Jersey, the south shore of Long Island and the Long Island Sound. A few 70 mph or above gusts are possible.

Isaias will bring heavy rainfall as it moves northward across the Chesapeake Bay, through New Jersey and into southern New York State en route to northern New England and then Canada tomorrow into Wednesday. A general 2"-4" rainfall is likely along and west of a line extending from Poughkeepsie to Wilmington, DE. There will likely be an area of 3"-6" rainfall with locally higher amounts in a portion of the region including Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. As of 8:30 pm, Washington, DC had picked up 0.40" rain.

Select rainfall estimates based on a weighted multi-model blend include:

Allentown: 3"-6"
Baltimore: 3"-6"
Harrisburg: 2"-4"
Islip: 0.50"-1.50"
New York City: 1”-3”
Newark: 2”-4”
Philadelphia: 3”-6”
Washington, DC: 3”-6”

The 12z UKMET was again a wet outlier. Given the storm's forward motion, its solution appears to be unlikely. As a result, it was discounted. Uncertainty for Islip and New York City remains relatively high.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around July 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The Region 3.4 anomaly is the lowest such figure in July since 2010. Since weekly recordkeeping commenced in 1990, July 1998 was the only other summer following an El Niño winter that saw a comparably cool Region 3.4 anomaly. Both cases went on to have a very warm September and warmer than normal autumn. They diverged in December with the state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) making a decisive difference.

The SOI was +0.85.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.088.

On August 2, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.780 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.995.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

 

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