SACRUS Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Newark with the southern wind capping at 88 today. Clouds and storms look numerous tomorrow, already showers into EPA. Monday may be the next shot at 90s ahead of Isaias with 850 temps near 20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Newark with the southern wind capping at 88 today. Clouds and storms look numerous tomorrow, already showers into EPA. Monday may be the next shot at 90s ahead of Isaias with 850 temps near 20C. Per Walt drag. Temps teach near 100 this morning south areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 89.4 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 ...Northeast... Weak mid-level disturbance will eject across the lower Great Lakes ahead of the main upper trough positioned farther west over the MS Valley. This lead feature should encourage a weak surface low to track from southern ON into southwest QC by mid evening. Any appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the international border, along with the primary large-scale mass response. Early in the day1 period, deep convection will likely be ongoing within a corridor of low-level warm advection, along the nose of a pronounced LLJ. This LLJ will shift north across upstate NY into southern ON/QC during the afternoon hours as a surface warm front advances north of the border. At this time it appears the primary focus for sustained, organized deep convection will be noted immediately ahead of the surface low. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the surface low across western NY where temperatures should warm rapidly through the mid 80s. Renewed surface-based convection should evolve in the lee of Lake Ontario then track northeast. If the surface warm front were to be delayed advancing north into QC, low-level shear would be improved markedly across northern NY which would prove more supportive for supercells and tornadoes. Additionally, there is also some concern for strong convection along the trailing warm front that extends southeast across the Hudson Valley. While boundary-layer warming may not be as strong/focused as farther north, sustained warm advection and high PW-airmass should result in scattered strong convection. Forecast wind profiles favor some supercell threat, though clustering is also possible. Damaging winds should be the primary concern. Farther south, a belt of seasonally strong mid-level flow will extend from the base of the trough over the southern Appalachians into the northern Middle Atlantic. While neutral/weak height rises are expected across this region, boundary-layer heating and orographic influences should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms. While poor lapse rates will limit convective updraft strength with this activity, modest cloud-layer flow should allow for some organization, along with a threat for localized wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 83degs., or 6.5degs. AN. [GFS has been off by +5 from reality]. 75*(93%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast. Isiais: Looks like 1" to 4" (least to the E) around here on Tues. Winds 30 knots+ for a while. Goes by fast it seems---- central NJ to Cape Cod in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Another high dew point front for today. Looks like mid to possibly upper 70s dew points again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Morning thoughts... The northern Middle Atlantic region entered August will below to much below normal precipitation. Through August 1, rainfall amounts for select cities were: Allentown: 22.81” (3.41” below normal) Harrisburg: 22.33” (1.52” below normal) New York City: 22.73” (6.23” below normal) Newark: 23.74” (0.98” below normal) Philadelphia: 23.74” (0.91” below normal) Scranton: 19.84” (1.91” below normal) With the exception of New York City’s Central Park, the combination of today’s thunderstorms and Tropical Storm Isaias’ rains will likely erase all of the year-to-date precipitation deficits. Already, in part due to a thunderstorm that brought 0.90” rain in the past hour, nearly half of Allentown’s precipitation deficit as of August 1 has been wiped out. Very heavy rain was currently falling in the vicinity of Easton. The heaviest rains from Isaias will likely impact an area that runs from Washington, DC across eastern Pennsylvania/northwestern New Jersey where 3”-6” rain is likely. East of there, a 2”-4” rainfall is likely. New York City’s Central Park will probably see 1”-3” from Isaias. The 0z UKMET was alone in focusing the heaviest rains from Isaias to the east of that area. Overall, there is good agreement among the guidance as to the general focus of Isaias’ rains. The expansive western Atlantic ridge responsible for Isaias’ track will block most of the cool air from the Plains States from coming eastward. As a result, temperatures will return to mainly above normal levels following Isaias’ departure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Tropics 80/75. Had about 0.09 overnight. Dew point temps in the low to mid 70s next two days. Clouds look to have some breaks in the next hour and we'll see how fast we can warm ahead of more afternoon and evening storms perhaps strong to severe and plentiful. Very warm airmass with 850MB >18c today, only clouds and storms would limit widespread 90s. On Monday ahead of Isiaas, again pending on clouds and showers/storms, should see widespsread 90s in the region. Isaias impacts starting Tuesday pm and continue into the night. 3 - 5 inches of rain area-wide, leaning towards wetter scenario. Much discussion happening separately on that front in multiple threads. Beyond there Thu looks like pleasant day of temps near or below normal. Warm and wet 8/7 - 8/13. Limited 90s but humid and warm. Bit of a ridge north of the region replay from May and June could lead to onshore flow with multiple storm chances when winds come out of the south. Rockies ridge moves east into the Plains towards the middle or end of next week with next potential sustained heat and perhaps strong heat as WAR possible expands west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Overcast with an occasional light spritz of rain. Very soupy dew point 75. Breezy SSE wind, hopefully some rain at some point today. Sure feels like it but everything WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 South Florida/Keys-like here 83/76 now. Sun breaking through. Could be the hottest heatindex day here or close to it, this summer. Those mold spore allergies are trough the roof the next 10 days or so. Thu the one dryish day 8/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 11AM Roundup ACY: 86/76 PHL: 84/73 New Brnswk: 83/78 TTN: 83/75 BLM: 82/81 LGA: 82/73 JFK: 82/76 EWR: 81/75 TEB: 80/74 ISP: 80/74 NYC: 80/73 Sun breaking through into much of NJ now working its way north, expect big jum next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 Current temp 84/DP 77/RH 81% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Skies brightening a little. 83/77 HI 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 89/77 whew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 90/76 here. Weight lose accelerated by a simple walk around the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 The high dew points are allowing the HX to reach 100°. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 88 76 67 SE12 29.86F HX 99 Teterboro Arpt MOSUNNY 89 76 65 S14 29.85F HX 100 Bronx Lehman C N/A 86 75 70 S13 N/A HX 95 Queens College N/A 84 75 74 S16 N/A HX 92 Breezy Point N/A 79 N/A N/A S14 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 82 75 78 SE14 N/A Staten Island N/A 88 77 70 SE7 N/A HX 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 2PM Roundup - heatwave possible for parts ofthe area and large section of NJ if tomorrow stays clear. PHL: 92 TTN: 92 New Brnswck: 92 BLM: 89 TEB: 89 LGA: 88 EWR: 88 NYC: 87 ACY: 87 JFK: 84 ISP: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 We'll see if the SSW winds hold EWR again from 90. TEB, LGA enroute so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Feel like one of the most oppressive days we've had. Lots of sun 88/78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 82/79 and still socked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2020 Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 Current temp 93/DP 79/RH 63% Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 80°dew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 ISP dew of 78. About as high as it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 FLASH FLOOD WATCH for TUESDAY! Up to 6" in places. SREF still says NYC will have trouble reaching 1.5". Got to go west for the higher totals, minus an isolated convective event within the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: ISP dew of 78. About as high as it gets New August hourly record high to go with all the records we had back in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 Winds went sw here and temp spiked 94/73/105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 83/78 here...brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 another 90 for ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 New 5pm August record high dew point of 78°at POU. Poughkeepsie PTSUNNY 84 78 82 VRB3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 2, 2020 Share Posted August 2, 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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