Rtd208 Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 Current temp 81/DP 74/RH 79% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 With all of the heat up north this summer, it's going to be hard for cold air to flow downards for the upcoming winter. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or about 3degs. AN. This could mean 2degs. BN, because the GFS is off by +5 generally around here. 76*(95%RH) here at 6am, scuzzy sky. 81*(85%RH) by 1pm----variable fog for the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Good Tuesday morning all, No topic from me this morning. Will re-evaluate late this afternoon and beyond but for now... I see isolated strong northeastward moving storms, from I95 northwestward, 2P-10P, some with tiny areas of 1-2" rain, and even one or 2 that might produce a severe weather report but not a widespread event, as far as I can tell. There should be pretty decent band of thunderstorms across central NYS this evening that may die out in se NYS, w CT and extreme nw NJ overnight? Wednesday-Thursday and now via the 06z/11 GFS include Friday into early Saturday. Not enough model consistency for me to as yet, if ever, target topic 4"+ rains and/or more than 2 severe reports. However, not out of the question for parts of the I95 corridor northwestward, but just too early for me to express any confidence. Modeling has become a little timid in it's 00z/11 model cycle (06z/11 GFS differs considerably wetter). Even the SPC HREF, noted for more easily identifying big rainfall, is relatively modest through Wednesday afternoon. I'll probably be off line 8A-2P. 736A/11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Morning thoughts... Overnight, the low temperature at LaGuardia Airport was 80 degrees. If that winds up as the daily low, that would be the record-tying 7th 80-degree minimum temperature. The record was set in 2002. Currently, 2020 is tied with 2006 and 2010 for second place with 6 such days. Across the region, today will again see temperatures rise mainly into the upper 80s and lower 90s. With fairly high humidity, the heat index will very likely exceed 100 degrees in many parts of the region. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 The warm minimum temperatures continue to be the big story as Don pointed out above. Our interior areas have had the most 65° or warmer low temperatures by August 10th. Areas closer the coast have had near their highest number of 70°minimums to date. Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 37 1 2 2013-08-10 35 0 - 1975-08-10 35 0 3 2011-08-10 31 0 - 2006-08-10 31 1 - 1973-08-10 31 0 - 1949-08-10 31 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 29 2 2 2018-08-10 26 2 - 2006-08-10 26 0 3 2013-08-10 23 5 - 2010-08-10 23 2 4 2014-08-10 21 0 - 2011-08-10 21 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 45 1 2 2012-08-10 43 1 3 2010-08-10 42 1 4 2011-08-10 41 1 5 2006-08-10 40 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 43 0 - 2011-08-10 43 0 2 2012-08-10 42 0 - 1994-08-10 42 0 3 2010-08-10 41 0 - 1988-08-10 41 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 45 0 - 2010-08-10 45 0 2 1908-08-10 43 0 3 1906-08-10 42 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 52 0 2 2010-08-10 51 0 - 2006-08-10 51 0 3 2012-08-10 49 0 4 2019-08-10 45 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 43 0 2 2010-08-10 34 0 3 2013-08-10 27 1 4 2018-08-10 26 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 29 4 - 2010-08-10 29 0 3 2013-08-10 28 0 4 2012-08-10 27 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2013-08-10 28 0 2 2010-08-10 27 0 3 2020-08-10 26 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2010-08-10 40 0 2 2012-08-10 36 0 - 1949-08-10 36 0 3 2020-08-10 35 0 - 2013-08-10 35 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Tuesday morning all, No topic from me this morning. Will re-evaluate late this afternoon and beyond but for now... I see isolated strong northeastward moving storms, from I95 northwestward, 2P-10P, some with tiny areas of 1-2" rain, and even one or 2 that might produce a severe weather report but not a widespread event, as far as I can tell. There should be pretty decent band of thunderstorms across central NYS this evening that may die out in se NYS, w CT and extreme nw NJ overnight? Wednesday-Thursday and now via the 06z/11 GFS include Friday into early Saturday. Not enough model consistency for me to as yet, if ever, target topic 4"+ rains and/or more than 2 severe reports. However, not out of the question for parts of the I95 corridor northwestward, but just too early for me to express any confidence. Modeling has become a little timid in it's 00z/11 model cycle (06z/11 GFS differs considerably wetter). Even the SPC HREF, noted for more easily identifying big rainfall, is relatively modest through Wednesday afternoon. I'll probably be off line 8A-2P. 736A/11 I always look forward to your posts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Only made it to 75° for low this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 83 and steamy 75. Low clouds and fog burning off and it seems like we're off to the races. More 90s today especially in the hotter spots. Tomorrow storms arrive at some point in the afternoon so a toss up day for potnetial 90s and reaching / extending the heatwave. Ridge builds into the Rockies with WAR shifting towards east of Bermuda. Plenty of storms around in a rather stagnant air mass Thu / Fri before onshore flow build around Sat (8/15) and Sun (8/16). Mon (8/17) and Tue (8/18) warmer but still looks like opporunity for showers and popups each day. Cooler air looks likely Wed 8/19 - Thu (8/20) will be interesting to see the extent of the reach. Beyond there longer range. Rockies ridge and heat will move east into the Plains and MidWest and similar pattern will push heat into the area with the strongest heat liekly coming in 2 days spurts for a hot close to the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Crazy NAM run-something to watch for sure 6z GFS has something similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 On 8/10/2020 at 11:43 AM, Will - Rutgers said: Too bad it's humid subtropical and not Mediterranean. Wonder what kind of crops we'll be able to grow here in 20 years. The development that my mom lives at in Bedminster have already been planting crape myrtle over the last couple of years. They seem to be thriving well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 The marine layer is holding on near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Yup foggy this morning in pt lookout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 88/74, F this. I am so tired of humidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Haven't seen the sun today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Another day with clouds and onshore flow allowing the warmest temperatures to go north of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 82/77 here. Generally sunny with intermittent cloud cover (thick low clouds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 looks like no heatwave at ewr. topped out at 88 so far and down to 84 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: looks like no heatwave at ewr. topped out at 87 so far and down to 84 now Same here with se wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Hot and sunny on the uws. Bring on the rain later in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Got a cell entering Brooklyn now. One just west of Jersey City too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Just heard a clap of thunder... make that two claps of thunder outside. Second one was loud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Good Tuesday afternoon everyone, I saw the 1 SVR for the ne NJ coast. Won't surprise at a nice line of vigorous convection drifting into the NYC forum coverage area after midnight and dying out vicinity NYC-LI at dawn Wednesday per the midday HRRR Thereafter, new convection late Wednesday along the front with uncertainty on amounts-placement late Wed-Sat. The very wet GFS op of near 8" here by Monday seems to be far too wet as compared to the 12z/11 UK, GGEM, EC op runs. The GEFS/EPS ensembles are generally ~1" NYC. So, showers and storms are coming, a little bit today, late tonight and more late Wed-Fri or Sat. How much?? For now no topic. I see the heat wave may not make it, even for EWR?? 348P/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 11, 2020 Author Share Posted August 11, 2020 High for the day was 91 here. Current temp 83/DP 72/RH 69% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Upton has low 80s and dry this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 The EPS has a break in the 90° heat for a while after tomorrow. Plenty of onshore flow coming up with high pressure to the north and lows to the south. The actual rainfall will probably be determined in the short term by where the weak fronts set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Full sun here all day, was a nasty day! 84/75 now, high was 88. HI topped at 101 earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 fwiw..have seen the 18zNAM with 8+ on e LI by Fri night. Will rereview late tonight and Wed morning and add in the 00z/12 NAEFS qpf which is increasing through Fri. No action at this time on my part. Walt 523P/11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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