CIK62 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 The last 2 days of August are averaging 74degs., or 1 degree AN. Month to date is +2.0[77.2]. August should end near +1.8[77.0]. 68*(69%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 70*(61%RH) by 9am. 74*(50%RH) by Noon. A clear area on satellite is approaching for say the 2pm-4pm. 80*(38%RH) by 5pm. Was on beach. A little too windy and some minor dust devils here. Otherwise OK. Rides all still closed, but with the Aquarium opened partially but by appointment only, it looked a little like a real Coney Island Sunday judging by a fully loaded Aquarium parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will feature abundant sunshine with temperatures in the middle and upper 70s to perhaps around 80° in the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78; Newark: 80; and, Philadelphia: 80. August will likely end on a cool note with readings several degrees cooler than those of today. Temperatures will likely return to above normal levels near or just after mid-week. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. That trough may persist until near mid-September. LaGuardia Airport remains on course to record its warmest summer on record. Arctic sea ice extent will likely fall below 4 million square kilometers over the next day or two for the second consecutive year and third time on record. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Numerous stations from Northern Maine to Southeast PA are currently in 1st place for the warmest summer. This includes LGA, BDR, and ISP in our area. It’s impressive how many high ranking summers there have been across this region since 2016. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67.1 2 2 2018 66.2 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 72.4 2 2 1949 72.2 0 3 2018 72.1 0 Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.6 2 2 2018 73.6 2 3 2016 73.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 2 2 1973 74.4 0 3 2005 73.9 0 4 2016 73.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.6 2 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.6 6 2 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 2 - 2010 74.7 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2018 73.5 0 Time Series Summary for Williamsport Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.6 2 2 2016 74.4 0 3 1949 74.3 0 - 1901 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 78.1 2 2 1966 77.6 0 3 2016 77.3 0 4 2010 76.8 0 5 1999 76.7 0 6 2019 76.5 0 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 a beautiful fall morning in the city comfortable temps nice gusty wind i am glad real summer is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 74 /52 northwest breeze and sensational outside. Two days of this drier / pleasant weather before warmer air returns Tue (9/1) with rain as we transition to SW flow. Wed - Fri much warmer with shot at 90s especially in the warmer spots more likely Thu/ Fri. Fri transition with strong cold front timing key on highs. Labor Day Weekend - another 48 hour cool down Sat (9/5) and Sun (9/6) half of next (Labor) weekend before warmth builds back in Labor day (Mon 9/7) as the Western Atlantic Ridge expands west. Strong trough into the GL / MW with strong ridging along the coast. Cooler air will likely continue to come on short intervals through mid month with the coolest readings west of the area. Way beyond the GL and MW trough looks to move out as western ridging is displaced east by strong trough into the PNW. Western Atlantic Ridge looks nearby the EC expanding west into the NE / then SE. Tropics active 9/7 - 9/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Not nearly as sunny as it was supposed to be today. It's mostly cloudy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Not nearly as sunny as it was supposed to be today. It's mostly cloudy here. Its delightful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Its delightful It feels great, but the sky conditions are not beautiful like they were supposed to be. A lot of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It feels great, but the sky conditions are not beautiful like they were supposed to be. A lot of clouds. But I see on satellite that more sun should start to break through in the next couple hours. It's just that my father is very fussy about this sort of thing. He's going for a motorcycle ride today and I got a call from him and he was pretty irritated, asking what happened to the sunny day today. LOL. We were not supposed to have hours of mostly cloudy skies like we've had. Still a nice day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the upper 70s to near 80° this afternoon. Three photos from the New York Botanical Garden from this afternoon: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Mostly sunny here today, made it up to 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Today was a picture perfect late August Day. Bright sunshine, deep blue skies, puffy cumulus clouds, low humidity and an active breeze made for an exceptional day as temperatures topped out in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Tomorrow will see more in the way of clouds than today, but it should still be partly sunny. August will end on a cool note as the temperature remains below 80° in a large part of the region. Beyond midweek, temperatures will likely return to above normal levels. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. That trough may persist until near mid-September. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal and September, as a whole, will likely finish at least somewhat warmer than normal. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 will likely exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 87% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was +22.70. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.410. On August 29, daily MJO data was unavailable. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°. Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.5°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010. Finally, on August 28, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.059 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 98% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.806 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.604 million square kilometers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 How exactly does this summer rank higher than 2010 and 1993 at LGA and other prominent sites? Those summers were demonstrably hotter and hotter for the ENTIRE summer. This summer it was all concentrated into one month..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 8 hours ago, winterwx21 said: It feels great, but the sky conditions are not beautiful like they were supposed to be. A lot of clouds. why has it been cloudy almost every day for like two weeks? I miss the clear skies we used to have so frequently a few weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: How exactly does this summer rank higher than 2010 and 1993 at LGA and other prominent sites? Those summers were demonstrably hotter and hotter for the ENTIRE summer. This summer it was all concentrated into one month..... warmer minimums with no let up... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was a picture perfect late August Day. Bright sunshine, deep blue skies, puffy cumulus clouds, low humidity and an active breeze made for an exceptional day as temperatures topped out in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Tomorrow will see more in the way of clouds than today, but it should still be partly sunny. August will end on a cool note as the temperature remains below 80° in a large part of the region. Beyond midweek, temperatures will likely return to above normal levels. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. That trough may persist until near mid-September. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal and September, as a whole, will likely finish at least somewhat warmer than normal. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 will likely exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 87% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was +22.70. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.410. On August 29, daily MJO data was unavailable. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°. Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.5°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010. Finally, on August 28, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.059 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 98% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.806 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.604 million square kilometers. Don this summer hasn't been anywhere near as consistently hot as either 1993 or 2010. This year we basically had one hot month. We need a different way of calculating heat (let's use number of 90 degree days), it doesn't even feel anywhere near as hot as 1993 and 2010 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Just now, uncle W said: warmer minimums with no let up... Yeah, I would change the way we calculate heat to number of 90 degree days, it doesn't feel anywhere near as hot as either 1993 or 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Don this summer hasn't been anywhere near as consistently hot as either 1993 or 2010. This year we basically had one hot month. We need a different way of calculating heat (let's use number of 90 degree days), it doesn't even feel anywhere near as hot as 1993 and 2010 did. The averages were boosted more by near record and record periods of abnormally high minimum temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yeah, I would change the way we calculate heat to number of 90 degree days, it doesn't feel anywhere near as hot as either 1993 or 2010. it should go by an 80 degree mean temperature for the day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The averages were boosted more by near record and record periods of abnormally high minimum temperatures. Yep, July was very hot (80 degree avg temp is my goal post for that and/or half the days at or above 90), but sensibly, neither June nor August has been all that hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Just now, uncle W said: it should go by an 80 degree mean temperature for the day... ha you ninja'ed me.....I mentioned that in regards to July because it was an 80 degree avg month. It was a bonafide very hot month (also because half the days had a high of 90 or higher.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: ha you ninja'ed me.....I mentioned that in regards to July because it was an 80 degree avg month. It was a bonafide very hot month (also because half the days had a high of 90 or higher.) I go by the hottest 30 day period...1980 has the hottest such period at 82.5 degrees from July into August... the July 2nd-31st 2020 30 day period was 80.2 if my math is correct... Hottest 30 day periods... 82.5 in 1980 81.9 in 1876 81.9 in 1999 81.8 in 2005 81.8 in 2010 81.7 in 2013 81.6 in 1955 81.2 in 1993 81.1 in 1995 81.1 in 1988 81.0 in 1966 81.0 in 2011 80.9 in 1983 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Just now, uncle W said: I go by the hottest 30 day period...1980 has the hottest such period at 82.5 degrees from July into August...if my math is correct the July 2nd-31st 30 day period was 80.2 if my math is correct... Hottest 30 day periods... 82.5 in 1980 81.9 in 1876 81.9 in 1999 81.8 in 2005 81.8 in 2010 81.7 in 2013 81.6 in 1955 81.2 in 1993 81.1 in 1995 81.1 in 1988 81.0 in 1966 81.0 in 2011 80.9 in 1983 1980 belongs in the hall of fame for heat.....did you calculate the average temp of July and August combined? If I'm not mistaken it comes out to 80! July averaged 79.7 and August averaged 80.2 (hottest August on record I think?) For some reason 1980 doesn't get mentioned that often but we had a heat wave of epic proportions for both durability and geographic size that covered the entire CONUS (except for the extreme NW and extreme NE, basically WA and ME) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: I go by the hottest 30 day period...1980 has the hottest such period at 82.5 degrees from July into August...if my math is correct the July 2nd-31st 30 day period was 80.2 if my math is correct... Hottest 30 day periods... 82.5 in 1980 81.9 in 1876 81.9 in 1999 81.8 in 2005 81.8 in 2010 81.7 in 2013 81.6 in 1955 81.2 in 1993 81.1 in 1995 81.1 in 1988 81.0 in 1966 81.0 in 2011 80.9 in 1983 Yes, this is much more in line for what felt to me to be sensible extreme heat. 1980, 83, 88, 91, 93, 95, 99, 02, 05, 10, 11, 12, 13 (four in a row really stands out!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 8/30 EWR: 82 JFK: 82 LGA: 81 ACY: 81 BLM: 80 PHL: 80 New Brnswck: 80 ISP: 80 TEB: 80 NYC: 79 TTN: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 The last day of August and the meteorological summer is averaging 73degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +1.9[77.1]. August will end at +1.8[77.0]. 67*(59%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Morning thoughts... Temperatures started out mainly in the 50s outside the major cities and lower 60s in such cities as New York, Newark, and Philadelphia. August will end on a cool note under variably cloudy skies. There will be more clouds around than yesterday. Temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 78° Temperatures will likely return to above normal levels near or just after mid-week. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. That trough may persist until near mid-September. 2020 is the record 7th consecutive year that Central Park has had no August temperatures below 60°. The previous record was 3 consecutive years during 1931-33, 1995-97, and 2001-03. The last time the mercury fell below 60° was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°. LaGuardia Airport will conclude its warmest summer on record with a mean temperature near 79.5°. The existing record is 79.2°, which was set in 2010. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 53.7 in Muttontown & 55.9 in Syosset this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Low of 58 here, first low in the 50’s since June 17th, which also had a low of 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 55 here lowest laost night. 70 and Mostly cloudy looking to continue that way. Two day of mostly sunny forecasts- yesterday (Sunday partly to mostly cloudy much of the morning and early afternoon) and today look off. Warm up Wed - Friday with off chance of 90s in the warmer spots especially Thu and Fri before the front. Labor Day weekend looking like a gem with highs near 80 Sat and Sunday and warming up Mon into the mid 80s. Beyond Labor day 9/8 - 9/14 WC ridge with trugh into Gl / MW and the Western Atlantic ridge expanding wet along the east coast. Back and forth intrusions of cooler day or two followed by return humid/warm flow. Looks like a block of fronts and lows west of the area into PA/ OH could see large rain amounts in the period. Should see WC ridging breakdown a bit and push into the plains later the second half of Sep and subsequent EC heights and warm period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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