wdrag Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 37 MPH in Wantage NJ at 105AM. Max so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Line looks to be improving to. Tewr was picking up a lot of rotation. Let’s see if it makes it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Radar starting to fill in behind the initial line now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night. Walt 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Great job by @wdrag on highlighting this potential. Spot on as usual. Definitely an impressive line of storms, have to see how it holds together as it approached portions of the NYC metro. @wdrag is an outstanding contributor to an outstanding message board. and i just saw a massive flash of lightning from that line like 60 miles away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 1 minute ago, wdrag said: NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night. Walt Thank you for all your post you crushed this timing and all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 An impressive light show with the squall line as it passes through. Frequent CTC/CTG Is accompanying this feature. No strong winds here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Torrential rain is occurring with this feature. It’s winding down here and we have picked up 0.79”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Impressive light show indeed out here in Warren County for most of Monday evening. It appears this line maxed out once it went Tornado Warned near Stroudsburg PA. It moved through here with a nice light show and torrential rain. Thankfully no damage at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Good Tuesday morning everyone, I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC. I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM. However, if not, then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. I don't have new topic material for now. Today: Might be an isolated shower in nw NJ and se NYS this afternoon that tracks into CT/LI this evening but a long shot. Wednesday: suspect a narrow band of showers of across NJ and possibly LI early Wednesday with a very brief instability burst. Sat 22nd-Monday 24th: looks a little more interesting, especially Sunday in NJ/LI, for thunderstorms. Late next week: Going to be interesting to watch tropics and northern stream interactions next week. For now, tropic moisture should be shunted east-northeast, to our south but we'll have to look for possible changes in the northern stream Great Lakes area trough. If some of that trough splits south into Tennessee (long shot right now) then we can bring up some of that tropical moisture. For now, most 00z/18 ensemble members of the GEFS, EPS/NAEFS say it stays southeast of us guided by a coherent northern stream west to east dominant flow. 539A/18 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 37 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good Tuesday morning everyone, I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC. I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM. However, if not, then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. Vivid lighting and booming thunder around 2am woke me up despite the AC and a fan running which typically drowns out all other noise, lasted 20-30 minutes, picked up .65” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.8]. Should be +2.9[78.5] by the 26th. 66*(87%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 75*(72%RH) by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 This was the heaviest rain event for Eastern LI in a while. 2.52” at the Southhold mesonet. They picked up 1.12” of that total in just 15 minutes. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=sout Liquid-Equivalent Precipitation 6 hours: 2.32″ 1 day: 2.52″ 3 days: 3.08″ 7 days: 3.17″ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 You nailed it Walt. The storm cluster early this AM crushed me with the heaviest rain since May. I got 1.3" in less than an hour! It was more than I got in the two tropical storms put together. Good wind, great lightning and gutter overflowing downpours. See what you can do to rustle up a few more of those 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Morning thoughts... It was another cool morning in parts of the region. At New York City, the temperature fell to 63 degrees, its coolest figure since June 17 when the temperature fell to 60 degrees. At Newark, the temperature fell to 63 degrees. The last time it was at least as cool there was on June 17 when the temperature dropped to 60 degrees. Under bright sunshine, temperatures will rebound to the lower and even middle 80s. After another short mid-week cool shot, noticeably warmer conditions will likely develop for the coming weekend. Out west, intense heat will again topple records in parts of California, Arizona and Nevada. Out in the eastern Atlantic, a new tropical depression could develop in coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 the next 95+ potential comes the last week of the month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 ¿Que? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 40 minutes ago, Cfa said: ¿Que? I tried to take it, but received the following message: This survey is now closed, but the Haz Simp team will still be accepting comments on the proposal via email ([email protected]) through August 21, 2020. Thank you for your interest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the heaviest rain event for Eastern LI in a while. 2.52” at the Southhold mesonet. They picked up 1.12” of that total in just 15 minutes. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=sout Liquid-Equivalent Precipitation 6 hours: 2.32″ 1 day: 2.52″ 3 days: 3.08″ 7 days: 3.17″ I am out in the East Hampton area till end of month, the thunder overnight was house shaking and even woke up my 7 year old who is a deep sleeper. Quite impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 18 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: I am out in the East Hampton area till end of month, the thunder overnight was house shaking and even woke up my 7 year old who is a deep sleeper. Quite impressive. Impressive training event for the Twin Forks. Station Number: NY-SF-140 Station Name: Amagansett 1.5 E Observation Date 8/18/2020 9:00 AM Submitted 8/18/2020 9:49 AM Total Precip Amount 2.41 in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 CoCoRAHS 24 hr rainfall (multi bands of showers/tstms Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning). Note bands of 1"+. My 0.42 is in the northern part of Sussex County but does not show since am not a CoCoRAHS observer. This graphic gives us an idea of what happened but not necessarily a completely clear picture. Neither does this sensor-radar mix image that has been appended. I do think we need to consider adding PWS's that have a quality assurance filter placed on them to at least the sensor-radar image. I think they could help modify the bands. A friend's PWS ~ 7 miles away, had 1.68" in Frankford Township NJ (Sussex County)... as compared to my 0.42" in Wantage. Both are not well defined in the graphics. Finally, there was a hail report from another friend in Frankford Township, probably pea, but we need crowd sourcing mPING back so we can get a better grip on the realities as they unfold. Unsure when mPING returns. I do know that Frankford Township hail defined cell had a DVIL in excess of 35 and so no surprise when the hail report came through. I'm betting more unreported hail occurred in our forum area, especially NNJ and Orange County. 1212P/18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Had a nice cell move through last night around 3am. Lots of lightning and .52" of rain. All total yesterday through this morning I got .82". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 4 hours ago, Cfa said: ¿Que? Uh, if it’s as simple as “should advisories go away?” the only answer to that is no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 This explains further the proposed NWS changes: https://nws.weather.gov/products/PDD/PDD_Proposed_FinalHazSimpProposal_2020.pdf 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Enjoy the comfortable weather now. Euro torches us next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK_62 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 On beach here in CI, My remotely read T is a nice 80* at 3pm, with variable clouds since 2pm. Decent spread out crowd for a weekday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Enjoy the comfortable weather now. Euro torches us next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Received about .38" of rain last night, all from between 9 and 10:30 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 Later update 83/59 - gorgeous day. Looking ahead at a very nice and seasonal few days with highs in the low to perhaps mid 80s. Heat dome lingering a few more days out west before shifting a bit east towards the Plains. We warm things up 8/22 - 8/27 with next chance of 90s in the areas as 850 MB temps >16c and with a piece of that strong heat >18c pushing etast into the area by mid week (8/25-26) possible with storms becoming possible during the peroid.. Also need to watch topics. Flow is flatter towards the end of next week and once we clear or get through any influence from the tropics it looks warm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Later update 83/59 - gorgeous day. Looking ahead at a very nice and seasonal few days with highs in the low to perhaps mid 80s. Heat dome lingering a few more days out west before shifting a bit east towards the Plains. We warm things up 8/22 - 8/27 with next chance of 90s in the areas as 850 MB temps >16c and with a piece of that strong heat >18c pushing etast into the area by mid week (8/25-26) possible with storms becoming possible during the peroid.. Also need to watch topics. Flow is flatter towards the end of next week and once we clear or get through any influence from the tropics it looks warm overall. this looks stormy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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