justinj Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 What’s the actual likelihood of seeing rain and storms Wednesday and Thursday for south central Suffolk? It seems like this whol year as soon as they hit nassau they die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Plenty of onshore flow coming up with high pressure to the north and lows to the south. Do you think by day 10 we may start to see a couple days of NW flow, versus the continuous Easterly/NE and SE flow depicted by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 The temperature rose mainly into the upper 80s across the region today. Tomorrow should be a similar day. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop. The SOI was +8.44. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.627. On August 10, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.796 (RMM). The August 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.259. Some of the guidance suggests that the MJO could be in Phase 8 in late August. The convergence of the MJO's passage through phase 8 and revived tropical cyclone activity could suggest the possibility of an East Coast threat during the August 20-September 10 period. Phases 8-1-2 have coincided with a cluster of East Coast landfalls. Belle (1976) and Gloria (1985) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a low amplitude. Sandy (2012) and Fay (2020) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 2. The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 8/11 PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 90 LGA: 89 TEB: 89 NYC: 88 ACY: 88 EWR: 88 BLM: 87 TTN: 87 ISP: 82 JFK: 83 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 On 8/10/2020 at 9:55 PM, uncle W said: some 1800's snowstorms... 1857 http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 1857... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030213/1857-01-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/ 1872 http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791 1869...snowstorm... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-8/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-4/ 1877...snowstorm... http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-8/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60725875 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1877-01-03/ed-1/seq-6/ 1859...16" of snow... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1859-01-05/ed-1/seq-8/ 1836 big snow... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/ 1879 foot of snow http://chroniclingam...-17/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1879-01-17/ed-1/seq-3/ 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/ 1855 snowstorm... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1855-02-10/ed-1/seq-1/ 1897 http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ 1899...... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0816.pdf http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-7/ 1899... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-3/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-02-22/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1867-02-22/ed-1/seq-4/ 1894 storm http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ 1894 http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/ 1888 http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50437841 http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf 1896 http://chroniclingam...-17/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50337497 1892 http://chroniclingam...-19/ed-1/seq-5/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50461371 Thanks Uncle, this is a wealth of info! On a note about a different kind of storm, the Perseids are really good tonight! Around 11 PM I saw a few really bright ones that seemed to pass just over my house! One really notable one that changed color from golden to red and after it streaked across really low I heard a sound, almost like the sound of a pebble hitting something? Would that be a bolide? How are the sky conditions over there? I'm still in the Poconos for a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Another very sultry morning...clouds helped keep temp up...77°/75° here at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +2.9[78.9]. Should be about +3.3[79.4] by the 20th. 78*(95%RH) here at 6am., scattered overcast. 80*(93%RH) by 9am, scuzzy looking. 82*(RH87%) by Noon. Oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Thunderstorms woke me up at 530am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Morning thoughts... Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 7th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this year, which ties the record set in 2002. A frontal boundary will be located just to the north and west of cities such as Newark and New York City. As a result temperatures will again rise into the upper 80s across the region. A few locations could reach 90 degrees. Along the frontal boundary, heavy thunderstorms could develop, especially this afternoon and evening. An area that runs from Washington, DC to Armonk could see locations receive excessive rainfall. The HREF ensemble mean highlights the rainfall risk for Philadelphia and Washington, DC. South and east of the front should see less rain. Parts of Long Island may see little or no rain this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 August 8th to 20th has been our most active time of the year for 3.00” or greater rainfalls since 2011. The historic 1000 year event happened at ISP during this period in 2014. So the models indicating varying degrees of heavy rain potential during this period may be correct. The historic Sparta flood also occurred during this same time of the year back in 2000. https://www.weather.gov/okx/HistoricFlooding_081314 https://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/ https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2001/0104/report.pdf 3.00” or greater events since 2011 2019 8-8....Livingston TWP, NJ...3.21 2018 8-11 to 8-13 NWS Upton........6.60 8-7.......North Merrick..............4.73 2017 8-18......East Shoreham....3.80 2016 8-20.....Calverton.....3.85 2014 8-13.....JFK...3.26....ISP....13.51 2011 8-15...EWR...6.56...NYC...6.37...LGA...6.64...JFK....7.80...BDR....3.17....ISP...6.49....Lido Beach....10.20 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Uncle, this is a wealth of info! On a note about a different kind of storm, the Perseids are really good tonight! Around 11 PM I saw a few really bright ones that seemed to pass just over my house! One really notable one that changed color from golden to red and after it streaked across really low I heard a sound, almost like the sound of a pebble hitting something? Would that be a bolide? How are the sky conditions over there? I'm still in the Poconos for a couple more days. where in the Poconos?...My son has a house in Wild Acres in Dingmans Ferry...I've been going there for 48 years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 7th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this year, which ties the record set in 2002. A frontal boundary will be located just to the north and west of cities such as Newark and New York City. As a result temperatures will again rise into the upper 80s across the region. A few locations could reach 90 degrees. Along the frontal boundary, heavy thunderstorms could develop, especially this afternoon and evening. An area that runs from Washington, DC to Armonk could see locations receive excessive rainfall. The HREF ensemble mean highlights the rainfall risk for Philadelphia and Washington, DC. South and east of the front should see less rain. Parts of Long Island may see little or no rain this afternoon and evening. I'm curious to see whose ideas pan out for later today, you or WDrag who seems to feel that the T-storm line will be 20-30 miles south of this. Similar to the differences in winter this "wet" period for much of the Metro Area has been anything but here in Putnam County. For all intents the dry period started in early June and hasn't changed. I did get some rains in July and about an inch so far this month but all told it's about 5" in total since 6/1 which is very light for this area and it's really starting to show. Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 84/76 steamy. Storms timing will determine if places reach 90. Dew point overdose alert. Thu - Fri more storms and clouds keeping temps down and keeping the Friday streak for rain th past month or so. Weekend onshore flow warm and humid but near average by way of higher minimums. 90s interruption 8/13 - 8/20ish. Mon 8/17 pending on storms could be the lone warm day of the work week otherwise more Florida-ish pattern stagnant with some real rain makers possile Cooler air may be blunted to the north into NYC/NEw Engalnd 8/18 - 8/20. Last week to 10 days Rockies ridge nudges east into the Plains with WAR expanding west. Timing may push strong heat to close the month? Have we seen the highest temps this summer yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Thunderstorms woke me up at 530am some decent thunder, only the briefest of a moderate rain shower. my local station is Somerville and it stopped reporting so i'm not sure what the dew point is. 76 F at McGwire AFB. honestly doesn't seem like a day where the sky will open up but i guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: It looks like the fingerprint of Isaias left at the crime scene. As always..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. The storm caused leaf burn on the south facing side of all the trees here in SW Suffolk. Those brown leaves are falling from the trees in quantities that we normally see later in the fall. So the landscapers had to come by yesterday and do a special leaf cleanup. But the ground is completely covered with leaves again today. The tropical dew points and heat just doesn’t match up with all the falling leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm caused leaf burn on the south facing side of all the trees here in SW Suffolk. Those brown leaves are falling from the trees in quantities that we normally see later in the fall. So the landscapers had to come by yesterday and do a special leaf cleanup. But the ground is completely covered with leaves again today. The tropical dew points and heat just doesn’t match up with all the falling leaves. some burn here too and I'm 5 miles inland from the sound. I also have salt on my south facing windows... Nothing like what you're describing but you all face the open Atlantic vs the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 The browning seems to be getting worse, I wonder if the lack of rain to wash off the salt is partly to blame. It’s getting pretty ugly out there. 86/80/100 right now, 0.11” downpour this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: I'm curious to see whose ideas pan out for later today, you or WDrag who seems to feel that the T-storm line will be 20-30 miles south of this. Similar to the differences in winter this "wet" period for much of the Metro Area has been anything but here in Putnam County. For all intents the dry period started in early June and hasn't changed. I did get some rains in July and about an inch so far this month but all told it's about 5" in total since 6/1 which is very light for this area and it's really starting to show. Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. 12z guidance (RGEM, NAM, and HRRR) are in line with Walt Drag’s thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Getting a sun shower here, it’s pouring. 84/80/98 it feels like a sauna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Nice little cell popped over Queens with nowhere to go. Pouring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, JonClaw said: Nice little cell popped over Queens with nowhere to go. Pouring now. Looks pretty much stationary and is expanding in size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 84/76 steamy. Storms timing will determine if places reach 90. Dew point overdose alert. Thu - Fri more storms and clouds keeping temps down and keeping the Friday streak for rain th past month or so. Weekend onshore flow warm and humid but near average by way of higher minimums. 90s interruption 8/13 - 8/20ish. Mon 8/17 pending on storms could be the lone warm day of the work week otherwise more Florida-ish pattern stagnant with some real rain makers possile Cooler air may be blunted to the north into NYC/NEw Engalnd 8/18 - 8/20. Last week to 10 days Rockies ridge nudges east into the Plains with WAR expanding west. Timing may push strong heat to close the month? Have we seen the highest temps this summer yet? will the WAR retrograde scoop up another hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Storms firing in South Jersey Ocean Cty area. Up to 90 here DT 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 there's a thread for the storms - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 Current temp 91/DP 77/RH 63% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Seabreeze storms popped mid island, just sitting there, hear the thunder from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 0.20” here from the first showers that have since dissipated, plus 0.11” from the storms this morning. Already more rain than Isaias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Pretty brutal today, 94/75/107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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