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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

....He stood about 6 or 7 feet...now that’s the weenie I be seeing in my sleep....

I awoke last night to a very tall silhouette in the room .. the air was bone dry , I saw armadillos and sand all around me. In the morning upon early light my skin was dry and chapped and our well was dry . I knew Stein had been there 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euros had a bad warm bias in the medium range it seems like. Hard to believe in a such a hot summer but it had so many 95-100F outbreaks. 

Yup... I was commenting on the respective biases of the operational Euro vs the operational GFS recently; although I'd characterized it more as the 2nd half of mid ranges and the extended, both. That facet about the Euro has been very coherent actually - particularly this summer for me.  I don't know if this has always been the case .. but I suspect not.  Didn't the Euro get an upgrade at some point over the last 18 months?  And I wasn't frankly paying attention last summer. 

Quite consistently I found that if the Euro did not already have the eastern heights, already containing western thermal layered heat expulsion by 84 or 96 hours ... anything it attempted to do afterward typically failed to materialize.  It's had a vivid Venus imagination in the late middle and extended ranges.  It actually just did this over the last three days; there were a couple of model cycles that created delicious fodder for this tedious petty summer's back broken debate idiocy.

I just wonder what that means for model performance in the winter - I'm thinking it's not really indicative as the 'wave frequencies' in the atmosphere are whole-scale physically different but who knows.  One thing that makes the Euro heat bias intriguing to me is that while that has been going on ...the model also has at times carried too much trough depth/amplitude modulation over nearer term 'dents' in the flow that dared venture into the initialization grid up over Alberta/Manitoba ...The model lustfully takes cumulus clouds up there and turns them into hemispheric guiding pattern change full latitude eastern Canadian geopotential anomalies and of course it is therefore unclear where it gets the mechanical forcing to do so. And... rightfully so the model necessarily dampens them to something more climate friendly by D3 and 4...  Probably its tendency to foment D8 bombs of ISP in the winter carried over into the summer... so at least that old habit is dependable - ha.

Don't get me started on the GFS...  It's consummately 6 to 12 dm too deep everywhere by the mid range at all times, all year... I've recently been comparing the daily cycles, interval to interval against the 00 to 108 Euro heights across Canada going back a ways. I don't recall not observation this: what starts out as 1 to 3 dm cooler than the Euro with all trough nodes and surrounding medium, it erodes the medium down as much as 6 dm, while as much 12 dm at individual little micro SPV by D7s... That doesn't seem like much...but, it atones for a goodly amount of the GFS' raging wind velocities and apparent jet suppression... It's been right for the wrong reason too - it's perfectly hiding its bad performance by getting to ridge suppression the wrong way - so I wonder if it's being noticed...But, here's the funny part - adding to that confusion.  The velocities have been high for years really.. What rages in winters, has been vestigial still lingering in summers a little. We have had anomalously coherent R-wave structures draped across N/A much of the way, no doubt because the increased balanced deep layer tropospheric velocities as triggering wave response at Rosby scales... more so than the typical seasonal breakdown I should say.  The GFS is likely to go on scoring well for the wrong reason, having too much trough depth, it scours the tops of ridges down...lowering heights, which fits the unusual early expression of R-wave - perfectly cloaked error that way. 

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