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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

90s Thursday and Friday shit the bed. Where is this torch you all are talking about?

 

Euro still has +20C 850s for Thursday which would easily be 90s....though it's shorter lived on the 00z run.

I've been skeptical for "big heat" on that look....I feel like maybe one day of it. Non-Euro guidance is really never getting things above +16ish at 850. However, I do think we could see a longer period of above average temps....which is fine by me in September.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

I don't think the wind ever quit.  Coldest I saw in Maine was 41 at IZG; the north was mid 40s and I had uppers.  HIE at 36 seems the coldest outside of MWN.

To windy, Ruined it getting into the 30's for some, I didn't break 50 here.

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro still has +20C 850s for Thursday which would easily be 90s....though it's shorter lived on the 00z run.

I've been skeptical for "big heat" on that look....I feel like maybe one day of it. Non-Euro guidance is really never getting things above +16ish at 850. However, I do think we could see a longer period of above average temps....which is fine by me in September.

You didn't ask but "no big heat at all until next summer" is pulling at my shoulder sleeve in general.

The trend all year since the snows of May ( :wacko2: ) alas! finally yielded to summer, has been the models either over extending heat ( Euro ) in the latter mid and ext ranges, or the GFS over abrading them S because that model refused to migrate the core of the westerlies N like a seasonal good fair player should.   Somewhere in between these respective biases, we put together a warmer than normal summer. 

But, we notice that there were no/few big heat dailies beyond norms?  In fact, I wonder if the number of 95+ days we actually had were below normal.  We did this summer off something more akin to GW ... no question. If I extend the link ...well, shit here:   https://science2017.globalchange.gov/    ...I'm sick of referencing this stuff... this is all stemming from veracious sources and is based upon empirical data -derived objective hypothesis and theoretical application ( got to dispel that strategic knee-jerk denial mantra right off the bat!) ... It is clearly stated in these reports that nocturnal low is thermally more residential to holding the temperature up over day-time highs all over the planet ...but in New England, we also have our geographic/geo-physical neggie feed-backs on preventing EML and/or super charged 850 mb kinetic layers from penetration to our latitudes ... 

blah blah preaching to the quire I know... I was just pointing out, just in case, the reader is confusing an above normal ( perhaps historically so) summer with a "hot" summer lol... 

But it matters, because conceptual that trend connote we can lose it in the other direction pretty quickly with continental evacuation of theta-e. I did a misplaced op -ed rant just now over in that convection thread for today ( probably should have put that somewhere else...), that covered the odd-ball nature of this vortex NE of Maine that is really causing this cool departure here... It's related to why I think we are going to have trouble other than brief excursions into warm sectors from this point forward.  Yes, ..in effect the the back is broken ... But it's not because there's no longer heat continentally available - it's because of the circumstances surrounding unusual and earlier than normal higher velocity ambient flow causing earlier than normal R-wave genesis patterning ...and that tends to feature +PNAPers...  

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm the epicenter of it all.  I've had just over 2" of rain since July 1st.

Heh... you need to have one of those south shore/east shore sea breeze convergence CBs that parks over SE zone and rains out over 2 hours... sending out outflow wedges that cause back-building... 

you've managed to miss the right of passage for your neck of the wood this summer.   That's not fair, huh? 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... you need to have one of those south shore/east shore sea breeze convergence CBs that parks over SE zone and rains out over 2 hours... sending out outflow wedges that cause back-building... 

you've managed to miss the right of passage for your neck of the wood this summer.   That's not fair, huh? 

I need a BM Noreaster fire-hosing in SE MA.  This has been the worst summer, hands down, since I've been here.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro still has +20C 850s for Thursday which would easily be 90s....though it's shorter lived on the 00z run.

I've been skeptical for "big heat" on that look....I feel like maybe one day of it. Non-Euro guidance is really never getting things above +16ish at 850. However, I do think we could see a longer period of above average temps....which is fine by me in September.

 

WildGregariousGyrfalcon-max-1mb.gif

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No rain up here.  Just thin mid-level cloud deck and cool air.

55F currently.  This morning’s low of 41F followed by a high of only 65F in this cold air mass... all windows and doors shut to avoid having the heat come on since last evening.

Glad we don’t have any A/C units in the windows letting cool air seep in, seeing as 65F is the highest temperature in the past 2 days.

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