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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sadly, my students will not be stinky and sweaty...or if they are I won't be able to smell them.

Would Laura have any impact on that slug of heat?

I don't think so. We will have to watch the tropics near 9/10 or so as something may be lurking. 

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's usually going to be the case...at least for ORH. Off the top of my head, I know that the summer high temps have a higher standard deviation than the low temps so you are typically going to see the high temps drive the departure on an absolute scale. But on a standardized (sigma) scale, it may be different. I haven't actually calculated to see which has a higher sigma value this summer. My guess is that it is close....the high temps have been very warm....they just haven't been driven by extreme heat. More the "lack of cold max temps". Very consistently hot max temps....just not extremely hot where we see a lot of record max temps fall as in past hot summers.

Here is the same table in a standardized scale. Standard deviations taken from NCDC's 1981-2010 climate normals. Bottom grid (z-scores) is just the top grid divided by the middle grid.

image.png.aa3649cb07023d6f5e0358b907da2b3e.png

 

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5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

True Sept furnaces are uncommon for NNE - last one here was 2002, though the 4th-week mid-upper 80s in 2007 and 2017 felt about the same.

Not really uncommon to have furnaces in NNE in September.  I usually run my furnace at least once in September.  No need yet but most windows got closed last night and I had the heat on in the car for a good chunk of the commute today.

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Sept furnaces are fine....unless they are truly historic, they usually lack a big punch like we see earlier in the summer. The really big stuff usually only ends up as like one day of 90+....unless maybe you are on the tarmac at BDL.

I want it above average until maybe mid november. I'll embrace a couple cold shots to remind us the season is changing, but for the most part, give me like 80/55 in Sept and 70/45 in October.

 

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26 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Here is the same table in a standardized scale. Standard deviations taken from NCDC's 1981-2010 climate normals. Bottom grid (z-scores) is just the top grid divided by the middle grid.

image.png.aa3649cb07023d6f5e0358b907da2b3e.png

 

Yeah that looks about right....looks like the spread is closer in August.

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12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like some rime ice up on Adams today. Clouds still covering most of the summit. 

Yeah, I see that they’re currently reporting sub-freezing temperatures up on Mt. Washington with freezing fog, so all the higher summits were probably iced up.  The latest reports show summit temperatures around 30 F.  The record low for the date is 26 F in 1989, but it makes sense that they haven’t reached anything that low today with this big August heat.

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Heh not sure I buy the Euro D5+ ... 

The GFS, while probably not 'as good' of a model in the long run, does seem to be scoring a bit better than the Euro's consummate attempts to heat wave the OV to New England regions in that D5.5 to 9 range it's been doing all summer.  

The GFS is obnoxious. I get it. It's annoying how it keeps suppressing the westerlies south and hosing these insane jet velocities so anachronous to summer, which should be more nebular with weaker velocities, etc.

That said, we've been verifying unusually well defined R-wave structures and faster jet velocities all summer - so...it's like the GFS is onto this, but just doing it too much?  It makes it hard to know how much so. I bet if the GFS was outfitted with the Euro grid density and then had on with its own 4-d yadda yadda it'd actually be a better model than the Euro.

Somewhere in between probably, what's new -

 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

What a day.  Bluebird, breezy and 61F in the valley at noon.

12pm temps:

200826122525.gif.c906868df342e2f7c2b013d94c3a3bd7.gif

While the longer term pattern still argues for summer at least being on life-support ... there's no question this is like the 'shot across the bow' air mass Will and I have talked about in the past.  

I almost feel though that this is flukey too - I mean that weird deep hole in atmosphere that seemed to spontaneously come into emergence NW of NS up there.  I'd been watching that in the models; it really didn't come from very much and it really seemed to be a planetary node - kind of weird.  Put it this way, running 90 kt 500 mb westerly cores from Montana to Maine in early mid august through early september is part of the fluke.   

Interesting... either way... my hypothesis is a cooler autumn relative to the hemispheric signal ( which that means...it may not be cooler relative to the climate numbers, but when compared in situ to the hemisphere) ...and that may be enough for packing pellet CAA unusually early...probably pre halloween sometime in October. 

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