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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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4 hours ago, klw said:

Don't forget the snow Sandy left in WV.

5BZOLHMR2A3K5HT66FEBPJUGWA.jpg

I think it was Hurricane Wilma in October 2005 (?) that did that same thing in Vermont.  I skied Killington where they had like 50 trails open in October, all on natural snow because of like 24-36” of paste that fell on the NW side of the hurricane.

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52f here.  A couple of days ago it felt like maybe the back of summer had been broken.  It definitely seems that way now.  Chamber weather for days to come.  Soon the leaves will need to be peeped at, I will get in a panic to get outdoor chores down prior to the freeze up, the GFS will flip from having a 942 hurricane at the end of every run to having a blizzard coming just inside the benchmark to finish each cycle, and someone will set up a thread for this year's Grinch storm.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not a lot of MUCAPE. Think most of it is offshore unfortunately. 

yeah it does look to stay mostly to the south. The 3km NAM also seemed to be a bit more beefy than NAM/GFS in terms of elevated CAPE. The 3km NAM actually looked like there was a small window for severe across LI and potentially the Cape later Saturday AM. Not sure I totally buy into it, but these setups have been known to surprise some in the past...especially in August. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah it does look to stay mostly to the south. The 3km NAM also seemed to be a bit more beefy than NAM/GFS in terms of elevated CAPE. The 3km NAM actually looked like there was a small window for severe across LI and potentially the Cape later Saturday AM. Not sure I totally buy into it, but these setups have been known to surprise some in the past...especially in August. 

Yeah you're right. I didn't look at that. I guess we'll see...but think most of this is south. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

There is a good s/w moving through late Fri into Sat morning..that would help. So yeah wiz, you  might be right. 

I think you are right though...most of it is south. But I suppose though it all depends on where the boundary sets up. Right now there really isn't much support for it to be north enough. Although sometimes you can get elevated convection on the north side of them. 

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