weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: They’ve got it easy today 90-91 unless convection occurs again they should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just in time to squash/grind any shortwaves come winter? Lol - ... heh, it's more of a subtlety than all that ...but sort of - It does present a larger --> smaller scaled neggie interference pattern, tho. It's not so much preventative, that interference is changing the behavior of daily events. I almost think of it as a 'torque budget' in the atmosphere, one that is based entirely upon the very real mathematical governing principle of the coriolis parameter ... and the geophysical limitation that the Earth only spins so fast as a constant in the mechanics ... blah blah popsicle headache. But, what that means is that if the velocity is screaming at the scale of large R-waves, there is less left over or available to corkscrew at the local scales - if that makes any sense. If you go back and look at all the bigs juggernaut bombs of history, the majority of them ( but not all ...) tend to transpire in regimes where you have less fast flow and more buckled flow Another way... If the x(y)-coordinate velocity(s) exceed the z-coordinate evacuation (or upward momentum), the system has difficulty maintaining a columnar structure in the troposphere and blows up into increasing WAA favored structures... - which conceptually that should make sloppy sense per common experience - it's harder to go around corners at higher velocity? The thing is... I have brought this up in the past ...this morphology ...and folks seem to get offended. Like I am taking down their snow chances... Noooo... I know this morphology is taking place - I have no idea what this means to seasonal snow totals, frankly... But, I do suggest that more icing precipitates out of overrunning scenarios than snow... that's just duh. That's a whole 'nother distinction therein too... Like, the fast overall flows don't favor stagnant set ups... So, the 1998 type of 4 day ice storms are probably less likely to occur. Perhaps more similar to what happened in 2017 when we had three .4" sub warning but substantive glazing events...each in and out in 6 hours in the interior. That sort of turn over quick rip is more likely ... We've also seen increased storm translation speeds in general... I mean, that 958 mb hyper bomb that detonated off the Carolinas a couple years ago, and shot SE of the Cape just out of reach to really cause National Guard notice is an example... It's odd to see such exotic depths moving so quickly ... we usually need a cutting system that benefits from interior diabatic heat release to really core out the atmosphere ...1978 ... etc... But, that exotically deep event was benefiting off the scream jet ... having successfully coupled with the diffluence it created... There was another like this last year up near NS/NF traffic zone... 948 or something terrifying of 'Cane province in white cloth... with black eyes and stoic expression at the sight of suffering... The problem is, at high velocities... coupling fluid mechanically gets narrowed... I'm conceptually wandering ... Point is, I'm not saying that shearing out and ripping open S/W's ...if not absorbing them in the high velocity maelstrom, should 86 winter... I'm saying I am anticipating seeing the same shit going on this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 hours ago, dryslot said: It will be pretty cold aloft with temps around +4c@H8 so its possible they see frozen up there, We've been 7-10'd pretty regularly here all month, Yesterday we moved into the fringe category, Maybe today is the day we see steadier showers, We shall see. What I'm seeing so far is bright echoes over the northern half of Maine, with them moving almost due east. For a forecast of early afternoon convection, upstream radar is not encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 16 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Where have you been? So like Frankenstein? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Just now, tamarack said: What I'm seeing so far is bright echoes over the northern half of Maine, with them moving almost due east. For a forecast of early afternoon convection, upstream radar is not encouraging. Yeah, I see all the early convection is up in the county, I'm pretty skeptical of seeing anything of any significance down here later, Looks like it will be our last chance for any moisture until this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 88/70. Broke back my ass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 78/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 BDL record watch: 11:00 AM obs: 83°F 7°F away!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I see all the early convection is up in the county, I'm pretty skeptical of seeing anything of any significance down here later, Looks like it will be our last chance for any moisture until this weekend. Early GFS has about 1.5" for the weekend event. Time for the qpf-reduction process to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 88/70. Broke back my ass. Lol... Models are exerting weight though - They aren't like, "making it up" - haha. I mean, in theory that is - sometimes I wonder if there isn't a secret parameterization of the runs to mute global warming appeals at times...because the models seem to go out of their way to normalize hot looks using suspiciously subtle means ... Excluding the world conductors of conspiracy in weather forecast model possibility for the moment ... there's got to be something in the physics beeing sniffed out if the GFS is going to be creating pigs like that vortex it sees D11 ... I was extolling some ideas on why in my usual unable-to-be-read loquacity a few posts ago.. Anyway, it does near ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Early GFS has about 1.5" for the weekend event. Time for the qpf-reduction process to start? It will depend on how far north the rems get, They had looked to stay quite far to south when i last looked, But i don't follow models very closely this time of year as i drop my subscription ones and just kept the pivotal script. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Haven't seen much talk since Steve addressed this yesterday, but it could be rather interesting here with Laura. EDIT: which also ties into Saturday's sevee threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 76/68 Fractured 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 70s and gorgeous breeze. What a day! Are we really thinking storms later? Doesn't feel like that kind of day to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: unless convection occurs again they should There’s no convection today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 BDL 87 Congrats tarmac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 Almost there. 11:20 89.6 68.0 74.2 49 11.5 W 29.65 29.70 Clear 10.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 minute ago, White Rain said: Not much movement heatwise here. Temp up a degree and dew down one in the last hour, 78/69, still overcast. Yup, sun came through about an hour ago, temp has actually dropped here. 77/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 76/68 here. Pool was chilly yesterday. Hoping it heats up a little today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 47 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 88/70. Broke back my ass. 83/67 Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 72/62 Where’s the big heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 BDL record watch: Noon obs: 86°F 4°F from the record!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 45 minutes ago, Hoth said: 70s and gorgeous breeze. What a day! Are we really thinking storms later? Doesn't feel like that kind of day to me. You’re not kidding. The breeze is wonderful. Hoping for a soaker this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: BDL record watch: Noon obs: 86°F 4°F from the record!!!! They went NW and mixed out a bit...temp went up to 87 and dew down to 58. But bouncing around 85-86 now. I wonder if the 850 temps already hit peak and are slowly dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 @ORH_wxman Still laughing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 72/62 Where’s the big heat? I'm up in Pittsburg for the week, clouds with off and on showers the past 2 days. I don't think it's gotten much above 70, mid-60s and showers now. Looks pretty chilly the next couple days, but I'll take that over rain on vacation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: They went NW and mixed out a bit...temp went up to 87 and dew down to 58. But bouncing around 85-86 now. I wonder if the 850 temps already hit peak and are slowly dropping. ahhh good call. Looking at mesoanalysis that seems to be the case. IIRC when looking at today's convective setup one thing I kinda noticed was it looked like the 850 front was slightly ahead of sfc front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 86/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: @ORH_wxman Still laughing? some models also not showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: @ORH_wxman Still laughing? Holy crap at that boundary lol. 50F at MVL and 90F at BDL? Tamarack wandering through woods in full flannel outfit while DIT walks around with a couch stuck to his nads? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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