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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Selling, but I could see a fropa then and maybe a warm DSD here Wed or something like that. Heat getting squashed. 

Someone made up their mind a week ago that this was going to be a very impressive, possibly record breaking heater coming up next week... I’m not even sure why we are still running the models daily.  It’s set in stone.

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That GFS run is a warm look just beyond mid week tho -  those are summer heights ORD-PWM day 8-10 and well beyond ...not a convincing autumn appeal for me but I don't mean nuttin'

This run's just doing what always happens in NE...  Thermal ridge attempts to progress east across the country, and then the model generates a trough out of nowhere and bullies the hell out of it through NE and all it does is belay the inevitable warm air a couple of days...  It's just ensemble-line synoptic behavior -

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Paul... we've had SB CAPE over 3500 here several times this year ... just that it's hard to do anything with it when the lapse rates suck and there's no triggers. 

That said, it's a dicey to dribble those warm buttery dps up under/nearby subtly westerlies increasing along 50-55 N ..yeah

I'm almost think MCS .... We haven't had a bona fide overnight windy strober in years around here... 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Paul... we've have SB CAPE over 3500 here several times this year ... just that it's hard to do anything with it when the lapse rates suck and there's no triggers. 

That said, it's a dicey to dribble those warm buttery dps up under/nearby subtly westerlies increasing along 50-55 N ..yeah

I'm almost think MCS .... We haven't had a bona fide overnight windy strober in years around here... 

At this the pattern being projected does favor the potential for some steeper lapse rates to eject our way...very fickle though. You would also think it could favor MCS activity...we are at the climo time of year where that potential (I would wager) is highest. We just have to lock in high theta-e air in the llvls while strong jet energy traverses above...and the way to do that...be atop the crest of the ridge...which looks like we will be. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Eff the GFS and the phantom EMLs it has given us. 

I actually am not a huge fan of the mlvl lapse rate output from COD. It always tends to want to bring in steep lapse rates. But...there were times throughout the summer where the look seemed to favor it, but there was one or two key pieces missing. not sure what exactly but you need the airmass to sort of remain homogeneous moving through the upper-Midwest and OV and that hasn't happened. Probably mT air from the Gulf being entrained into the mid-levels.

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