Cyclone-68 Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z NAM has a nice line pushing thru in the overnight hours. NWS has a nice discussion about it but it’s not reflected in the point and click. At least so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 We pray for the NAM. Has a few things going for it. Gets pretty chilly at 500 with some decent MUCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We pray for the NAM. Has a few things going for it. Gets pretty chilly at 500 with some decent MUCAPE. That trough actually amplifies a bit nicely as it moves into New England...even GFS gets ~-15C 500 temps overnight. Should be some decent moisture convergence too. Shear not terrible so maybe some small hailers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We pray for the NAM. Has a few things going for it. Gets pretty chilly at 500 with some decent MUCAPE. 3k and 12k leap frog this area. MehCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 3k and 12k leap frog this area. MehCAPE glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: glad we don't live there enjoy your towering cumulus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: 3k and 12k leap frog this area. MehCAPE Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: enjoy your towering cumulus I actually do enjoy those. I remember last year I was visiting a friend in NY with a few other friends...around Albany. We went for an evening walk and there were still some nice towering cumulus around. As I looked at them I got this tickling sensation in my body...always happens when I see them. There is just something visually appealing about them. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I actually do enjoy those. I remember last year I was visiting a friend in NY with a few other friends...around Albany. We went for an evening walk and there were still some nice towering cumulus around. As I looked at them I got this tickling sensation in my body...always happens when I see them. There is just something visually appealing about them. We call this “the Chris Matthews Syndrome” j/k 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Always nice to see the first sunny days with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F. Not some rain cooled air. Back broken. Nothing higher than upper 70s for the next week. Wednesday Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Thursday Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Thursday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Friday Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Always nice to see the first sunny days with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F. Not some rain cooled air. Back broken. Nothing higher than upper 70s for the next week. Wednesday Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Thursday Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Thursday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Friday Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. I don't think anyone is denying more heat down the road. But when I think of broken I think of the relentlessness of the summer heat with days and weeks of no cold fropas. 2-3 hot days followed by 2-3 cools days, and repeat would be a back break to me. We'll see how it goes. We can definitely pull 2 week torches in early September, but the LR models are keeping a lot of cool air in Quebec so it wouldn't take much of a s/w to tap into that either via the front door or a backdoor. The BDL 90F record chance is taking a hit, but I never underestimate that pit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don't think anyone is denying more heat down the road. But when I think of broken I think of the relentlessness of the summer heat with days and weeks of no cold fropas. 2-3 hot days followed by 2-3 cools days, and repeat would be a back break to me. We'll see how it goes. We can definitely pull 2 week torches in early September, but the LR models are keeping a lot of cool air in Quebec so it wouldn't take much of a s/w to tap into that either via the front door or a backdoor. The BDL 90F record chance is taking a hit, but I never underestimate that pit. I'm hoping this will at least lead to a few decent severe setups as we move into late August and early September. Kinda out of climo, but we have had some fairly decent events in the past during this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don't think anyone is denying more heat down the road. But when I think of broken I think of the relentlessness of the summer heat with days and weeks of no cold fropas. 2-3 hot days followed by 2-3 cools days, and repeat would be a back break to me. We'll see how it goes. We can definitely pull 2 week torches in early September, but the LR models are keeping a lot of cool air in Quebec so it wouldn't take much of a s/w to tap into that either via the front door or a backdoor. The BDL 90F record chance is taking a hit, but I never underestimate that pit. I think we torch right as we start Torchtember. Looks toasty and I'm sure for a week or so a certain someone in Tolland will be tossing AWTs left and right. So, summer is not over by any means...but the relentless heat as you said, is done. September looks to be AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don't think anyone is denying more heat down the road. But when I think of broken I think of the relentlessness of the summer heat with days and weeks of no cold fropas. 2-3 hot days followed by 2-3 cools days, and repeat would be a back break to me. We'll see how it goes. We can definitely pull 2 week torches in early September, but the LR models are keeping a lot of cool air in Quebec so it wouldn't take much of a s/w to tap into that either via the front door or a backdoor. The BDL 90F record chance is taking a hit, but I never underestimate that pit. Yeah for sure. It’s not warm apple cider time by any means. But like we mentioned this last week, there’s been a noticeable change at least in NNE (don’t want to speak for SNE). 70s by day and 50s by night. Now we might even tickle 60s by 40s. There will still be mid-80s days even up here I bet, seems September is a torch month these past few years. Ive also noticed the solar angle difference and lengthening nights makes it easier to cool off. But a large part of June and all of July was pretty unrelenting (as can be seen by hottest July for BTV & Mansfield locally)... even the cooler days were popping above normal 82-85F maxes at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 stubborn clouds today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... not sure one can 'realistically' think so with what's going on out west - I guess relative to our region, maybe? I’ve always taken these “summer’s back is broken” testaments as very locally/regionally oriented, because the farther you stretch them out to say global, hemispheric, or even CONUS scales, the less sense they make. I don’t even really have a perception of what the expression means for places like San Diego or southern Florida, and if it has any meaning at all in those places, it’s likely to be at a very different time of year. I get that one can look at the overall longwave pattern and note when there has been a dramatic seasonal switch, but it’s still going to typically produce regions that would seem to go in different directions with respect to seasonal progression. I’ve only used the expression in the context of the NNE, where at this point in August if we’ve got forecasts going out the next week or two with highs in the 70s F and lows in the 50s F, we’re done with respect to high summer. Once we’re past that window of time, we’re almost into September, and there’s really no going back to extended periods of 90s F and high dews at that point up here. The term is of course ridiculously subjective and loaded to begin with, but my perception is a lot of people use it quite regionally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, tamarack said: EWR had a low of 86 to go with that 108 on 7/22/2011. The low was tied the next day and those 2 are warmest minima on record by 2°. That 108 is tops by 3° - half a dozen days have hit 105. I almost wonder... Oh - heh...I thought you wrote 1911 ... I had to re-read that - wait, they were that hot in 2011? wow - Oh riiiight that was that day down here along Rt 9 in metro west of Boston out around Framingham, when as I sped down the road at 55 mph the dash thermometer was peggin' a buck 5 at 5pm ! I actually had the window down and the AC off in gawk-awe because ... something that obscene really should be corporeally soaked in or why be alive. Heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we torch right as we start Torchtember. Looks toasty and I'm sure for a week or so a certain someone in Tolland will be tossing AWTs left and right. So, summer is not over by any means...but the relentless heat as you said, is done. September looks to be AN. Yeah I didn't/don't mean to be sparking argument or be contrarian ... I just think it is just this simple, if the ridge didn't so hugely and anomalously retrograde while still continuing to impress massive thermal totals upon the land out west ... ( eh hm) we wouldn't have any debate at all. It'd be status quo - ..I think the west should be normal... while we have something like now... This? This is something else - I guess also ( admittedly) there is a pettiness to my own perspective in matters, in that when I read the allah looia 'the back is broken' thing ... every year it always seems juuuust a we bit wantonly rushed - lol. Like the first cool fropa or BD in mid August and phew.... 4-8" storm watch next week. Glad we made it. haha But it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we torch right as we start Torchtember. Looks toasty and I'm sure for a week or so a certain someone in Tolland will be tossing AWTs left and right. So, summer is not over by any means...but the relentless heat as you said, is done. September looks to be AN. You’ve got folks wearing sweatsuits, visiting cider mills and uninstalling AC.. we tried to tell em 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 41 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I’ve always taken these “summer’s back is broken” testaments as very locally/regionally oriented, because the farther you stretch them out to say global, hemispheric, or even CONUS scales, the less sense they make. I don’t even really have a perception of what the expression means for places like San Diego or southern Florida, and if it has any meaning at all in those places, it’s likely to be at a very different time of year. I get that one can look at the overall longwave pattern and note when there has been a dramatic seasonal switch, but it’s still going to typically produce regions that would seem to go in different directions with respect to seasonal progression. I’ve only used the expression in the context of the NNE, where at this point in August if we’ve got forecasts going out the next week or two with highs in the 70s F and lows in the 50s F, we’re done with respect to high summer. Once we’re past that window of time, we’re almost into September, and there’s really no going back to extended periods of 90s F and high dews at that point up here. The term is of course ridiculously subjective and loaded to begin with, but my perception is a lot of people use it quite regionally. yeah ...hence the relativity to scope and scale - But I also think it is important to canvas in a larger region because there are some summers that are fropa plagued - we just haven't had one this year. How do we draw the distinction then. Will and I had this conversation about four or five clicks ago... we seem to have a consensus then; we call it "shot across the bow" air mass? It's that kind of air mass where DPs ... 42 ish, but 850mb temperature may still be 7 or so C ... such that open sky sun and NW d-slope wind might get you into the low and middle 70s ...but as soon as the sun kisses the western tree-line, the air just smells like it's going to hemorrhage heat - you can just tell... The next dawn is dripping dew... 41 F and smells like summers been swept away... Yet, that afternoon, it's back to 74F ... You know, something that is visceral and clearly deeply obvious like that ..This? this was a weird pattern that by virtue toppled an usual big eastern/Maritime high over top, ...that got also accentuated at llvs by those upstart cyclones to our south.. My dp was 68 in rain yesterday ...that's not really unsummer - it's just unhot. That high was there because of the big ridge in the west - transitive architecture. It didn't have the same appeal to me as unilateral seasonal transition entry ... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’ve got folks wearing sweatsuits, visiting cider mills and uninstalling AC.. we tried to tell em Its not the same now, sun is lower. We always have a hot period as September starts but its broken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Nice early fall feel out there today. Cool this morning, and now sunny with temps slowly climbing through the 70s at midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’ve got folks wearing sweatsuits, visiting cider mills and uninstalling AC.. we tried to tell em So people still wear those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: So people still were those? Seems that way? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 GFS trying to end the growing season for Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems that way? Not the person I would have pegged for that...lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Not the person I would have pegged for that...lol. Fubu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Its not the same now, sun is lower. We always have a hot period as September starts but its broken. Awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fubu? cross colours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: stubborn clouds today still hanging tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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