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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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6 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Keep in mind we're losing 3 minutes of daylight per day, means are declining, sun angle is rapidly declining. It's not just about the pattern. There's a reason climo is climo, and even the mighty BDL 'mac has trouble getting to 90 after about the 23rd of August. If Ryan's 10-day is right, which takes us to the last week of August, yesterday and today are critical for BDL breaking the record. If you're expecting a late summer like '83 or '73 then yeah I guess it doesn't matter and we'll blow past the record, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I disagree with that to an extent. In fact, you could argue pattern becomes even more critical. Late June and July..we bang bang out 90 "relatively easy"...you don't need that crazy anomalous pattern or airmass...earlier than that and later than that it likely need it more. 

The look on the pattern (at least through the end of the month offers a much higher potential for heat against average or below-average. With the strength of the western and WAR ridge's there is plenty of room and window to pinch heat into our region. We have to solely rely on troughs to dig in and for some actual cold fronts to move through. Maybe perhaps some weaknesses develop within the WAR but as long as it stays that developed it's going to take numerous trough ejections and fronts to really weaken in. 

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One problem is we will continue to struggle with pushing any meaningful cold fronts through here. Given what is being advertised on the Euro and GFS we would see a plume of anomalously warm 850 temperatures push well into Canada and southeast Canada and then right into our region...almost similar to I think what happened in June...(just w/o the cut-off to the south). There offers potential to get a solid NW flow down the road...sure sun angle is decreasing but a downslope flow with dry ground at favorable areas are going to torch. 

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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One problem is we will continue to struggle with pushing any meaningful cold fronts through here. Given what is being advertised on the Euro and GFS we would see a plume of anomalously warm 850 temperatures push well into Canada and southeast Canada and then right into our region...almost similar to I think what happened in June...(just w/o the cut-off to the south). There offers potential to get a solid NW flow down the road...sure sun angle is decreasing but a downslope flow with dry ground at favorable areas are going to torch. 

Enjoy the cool down next week.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

12z euro too wanting to throw some heat our way. If BDL falls one shy of the record I demand every day that hit 89 be reanalyzed...maybe someone forgot to round. 

Maybe if we can plant some growing grass around the ASOS we can convert 91 back to 89.

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48 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Ryan says it happened.

90F today.

Where did he see that? They may have...especially right after 18z when there was a string of 32C obs. But if they didn't hit it in that 20 min period it may have been tough because it was mostly 31C obs after that. Based on the 5 min obs I'd guess they did....I'd put it at 80/20 odds.

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23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Where did he see that? They may have...especially right after 18z when there was a string of 32C obs. But if they didn't hit it in that 20 min period it may have been tough because it was mostly 31C obs after that. Based on the 5 min obs I'd guess they did....I'd put it at 80/20 odds.

nm...I see BOX tweeted it. A few mins after 18z as suspected.

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51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

nm...I see BOX tweeted it. A few mins after 18z as suspected.

AWT. 
And another 2 days later next week with retorch. Not much cooling past this weekend as Tip and a few of us surmised  . And then Katy bar the door end of month into early Sept. You and Cranky alone on a BN island . Good luck friend 

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