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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice to have that genny and cable. We lost wifi after the first day but I have an antenna for the TV so I could chill at night.  Hope you get it fixed. Gas or fixed genny? 

 

Generac 6500 gas genny.  Have had it about 10 years now.  Hook it up to a transfer switch when the power goes out. Runs like a champ. Have had to use it sooo many times.  9 days for Irene, 3 days for the Octobomb,  5 days for Sandy.  Looking like this will be 5 days or more...fun times.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Any rebuild pics? Such an interesting story. 38 changed a lot of things.  Since moving up here from Westerly I am amazed at the lack of Emergency Prep and recovery.  Westerly suffered the most casualties from 38 and they never forget. They have a plan pre and post and its wonderful how quickly things are brought back to normal.  I thought after Irene that my town and area would learn. Its actually become worse. 

I don't see any rebuild pics, but this one is interesting because it shows a bit of what Fishers looked like before the hurricane. Until the 1815 storm, Fishers was heavily forested. That cane blew down most of the trees on the island. From then until September '38, it was lots of meadows and small scrubby trees, as you can see from this picture. '38 seeded the island and it is once again in a mostly forest state today. Only a matter of time until the next big blow returns it to fields and meadows.

Probably the closest house in spirit to "Windshield" on Fishers today is called "Hooverness", just around the point. Very modern open design intended to allow the owners to look upon their stunning gardens and also to make the house virtually disappear as one drives up to it. You see right through it across the water to CT.

windshield.jpg

fishers.jpg

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28 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The clouds are nice though. Sadly I'm that green pixel that straddles the MA/NH border. Not as bad as you folks in SE MA last 30, but we're about the same over last 60-90 days.

full.php?day=07&month=08&year=2020&time_type=recent&time_frame=last30days&recent_type=yesterday&product=observed&units=eng&domain=current&geo_width=489196.9810251035&geo_height=305748.1131406892&xmin=-73.54860961914503&ymin=41.34728805772217&xmax=-69.15407836914525&ymax=43.376465573986565&layers={%22precip_layer%22:0.57,%22rfc_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22state_layer%22:0.75,%22hsa_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22county_layer%22:0.75}

And I’m in that green/yellow in northern Merrimack. We’ve been relatively screwed as well.

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Are we still torching and tracking canes second half of season 

No one asked me ...but, not sure how to know given the present and recent trends in modeling.  There's like .. zero trend.

The american teleconnector agencies are mixed, with the CDC suggesting a warm middle latitude continent, while the CPC is tepid at best. 

Meanwhile, the operational models are flipping negative and positive in their anomaly distributions toward mid month every couple of runs. 

Three days ago, there was a more convincing warm look ... reasonably well shared among the guidance types.  But has since sort of proven maybe was coincident noise.

Probably just means normal ... boring but normal. 

A declaration that is a sure -fire way to get the models to throw up a firestorm heat wave on the next cycle, being the risk of course

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37 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Anyone see that >1" of rain in 5 minutes, I think Delaware. Lol

A 1 in 1000 year event. They should toss that 1” in 1 minute from Unionville out of the record books. 
https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/87914944

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46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A 1 in 1000 year event. They should toss that 1” in 1 minute from Unionville out of the record books. 
https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/87914944

There was a poster in the Philly thread yesterday with like 6” in 35 minutes or something obscene like that...in the middle of those storms.  His photos looked like you could kayak his backyard.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There was a poster in the Philly thread yesterday with like 6” in 35 minutes or something obscene like that...in the middle of those storms.  His photos looked like you could kayak his backyard.

Yeah that's rare but doable. You're basically doing 0.15"-0.20"/min. I've done that in a min before on the Davis, but can't imagine it for a half hour. But even as insane as that is, the 1.23" in 1 minute is like 6x heavier. I just can't believe it's possible. That record was from July 4, 1956 and I guess the equipment calibrated out correctly. I figured everything was manual gauges back then though? If it was manual, who in their right mind is going out there to check the rain during the heaviest rainfall in world history? :lol:

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34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that's rare but doable. You're basically doing 0.15"-0.20"/min. I've done that in a min before on the Davis, but can't imagine it for a half hour. But even as insane as that is, the 1.23" in 1 minute is like 6x heavier. I just can't believe it's possible. That record was from July 4, 1956 and I guess the equipment calibrated out correctly. I figured everything was manual gauges back then though? If it was manual, who in their right mind is going out there to check the rain during the heaviest rainfall in world history? :lol:

My memory is that years ago (80s or early 90s) a small town in Southern New Jersey claimed to have recorded 25 inches in 5 hours when a Tstorm just sat over it.  I have been unable to have found any mention of it when I have searched so my memory could be wrong.

 

Edit: Weather.com claims NJ record is 14.8 inches in 24 hours so it could be the report was wrong, never verified, or my memory is off or all three.

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/extreme-rainfall-precipitation-recorded-50-states

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3 minutes ago, klw said:

My memory is that years ago (80s or early 90s) a small town in Southern New Jersey claimed to have recorded 25 inches in 5 hours when a Tstorm just sat over it.  I have been unable to have found any mention of it when I have searched so my memory could be wrong.

Don't recall that one, but I remember this one well.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/HistoricFlooding_081314

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that's rare but doable. You're basically doing 0.15"-0.20"/min. I've done that in a min before on the Davis, but can't imagine it for a half hour. But even as insane as that is, the 1.23" in 1 minute is like 6x heavier. I just can't believe it's possible. That record was from July 4, 1956 and I guess the equipment calibrated out correctly. I figured everything was manual gauges back then though? If it was manual, who in their right mind is going out there to check the rain during the heaviest rainfall in world history? :lol:

Oh yeah never really thought about 1” in 1 minute.  That seems tough outside of pouring a bucket of water in the gauge.  And I’m with you, if it was manual there’s no f’ing way someone was going out there every minute to check.  

I was just thinking the 1” in 5 minutes and 6” in 35 minutes observations from yesterday line up.  I can’t fathom 35 minutes of that amount of rain.  We feel pretty good about getting 1” in 35 minutes, much less half a foot.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

A 1 in 1000 year event. They should toss that 1” in 1 minute from Unionville out of the record books. 
https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2020/08/07/friday-storm-delaware-isaias-delmarva-power-flooding-rain/3324504001/

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/87914944

How do you get an inch of rain in five minutes? Solid sheets of water falling from the sky?

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