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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 hours ago, alex said:

The random freezes are what makes the growing season so short. A couple of years ago we had a single cold night in mid August that killed my tomatoes, followed by not even frost for another month. That was frustrating...

This probably would've been a brutal end to your August in 1965.

CON,1965-08-29 00:00,KCON 290000Z 29008KT 15SM OVC/// 17/15 A//// RMK SLP034 P0001 T01720150
CON,1965-08-29 03:00,KCON 290300Z 26010KT 10SM CLR 16/10 A//// RMK SLP047 T01560100
CON,1965-08-29 06:00,KCON 290600Z 33015KT 10SM CLR 12/05 A//// RMK SLP090 T01170050
CON,1965-08-29 09:00,KCON 290900Z 33012KT 10SM CLR 09/03 A//// RMK SLP114 T00890028
CON,1965-08-29 12:00,KCON 291200Z 27013KT 15SM CLR 09/02 A//// RMK SLP140 T00940022
CON,1965-08-29 15:00,KCON 291500Z 28016KT 15SM SCT/// 13/02 A//// RMK SLP126 T01330022
CON,1965-08-29 18:00,KCON 291800Z 29015KT 15SM BKN/// 16/07 A//// RMK SLP116 T01560067
CON,1965-08-29 21:00,KCON 292100Z 31022KT 2SM TSRA OVC/// 12/08 A//// RMK SLP121 P0016 T01170083
CON,1965-08-30 00:00,KCON 300000Z 29008KT 15SM CLR 08/02 A//// RMK SLP152 T00830022
CON,1965-08-30 03:00,KCON 300300Z 06004KT 10SM CLR 04/02 A//// RMK SLP165 T00390017
CON,1965-08-30 06:00,KCON 300600Z 21005KT 10SM CLR 04/02 A//// RMK SLP175 T00390017
CON,1965-08-30 09:00,KCON 300900Z 09004KT 10SM CLR 01/M01 A//// RMK SLP175 T00061011
CON,1965-08-30 12:00,KCON 301200Z 24008KT 15SM SCT/// 07/02 A//// RMK SLP179 T00720017
CON,1965-08-30 15:00,KCON 301500Z 32018KT 15SM BKN/// 12/02 A//// RMK SLP189 T01220017
CON,1965-08-30 18:00,KCON 301800Z 31017KT 15SM SCT/// 15/00 A//// RMK SLP182 T01500000
CON,1965-08-30 21:00,KCON 302100Z 34012KT 15SM CLR 16/01 A//// RMK SLP193 T01560006
CON,1965-08-31 00:00,KCON 310000Z 04004KT 15SM FEW/// 12/00 A//// RMK SLP212 T01170000
CON,1965-08-31 03:00,KCON 310300Z 30003KT 15SM CLR 05/02 A//// RMK SLP231 T00500022
CON,1965-08-31 06:00,KCON 310600Z 00000KT 15SM CLR 01/M01 A//// RMK SLP251 T00061011
CON,1965-08-31 09:00,KCON 310900Z 00000KT 10SM OVC/// M01/M02 A//// RMK SLP258 T10111022
CON,1965-08-31 12:00,KCON 311200Z 00000KT 3SM FG OVC/// BKN/// 02/02 A//// RMK SLP272 T00220017
CON,1965-08-31 15:00,KCON 311500Z 18003KT 15SM OVC/// 14/05 A//// RMK SLP263 T01390050
CON,1965-08-31 18:00,KCON 311800Z 18008KT 15SM SCT/// OVC/// 16/03 A//// RMK SLP259 T01610033
CON,1965-08-31 21:00,KCON 312100Z 18008KT 15SM -SHRA BKN/// OVC/// 15/05 A//// RMK SLP249 T01500050

 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

This probably would've been a brutal end to your August in 1965.


CON,1965-08-29 00:00,KCON 290000Z 29008KT 15SM OVC/// 17/15 A//// RMK SLP034 P0001 T01720150
CON,1965-08-29 03:00,KCON 290300Z 26010KT 10SM CLR 16/10 A//// RMK SLP047 T01560100
CON,1965-08-29 06:00,KCON 290600Z 33015KT 10SM CLR 12/05 A//// RMK SLP090 T01170050
CON,1965-08-29 09:00,KCON 290900Z 33012KT 10SM CLR 09/03 A//// RMK SLP114 T00890028
CON,1965-08-29 12:00,KCON 291200Z 27013KT 15SM CLR 09/02 A//// RMK SLP140 T00940022
CON,1965-08-29 15:00,KCON 291500Z 28016KT 15SM SCT/// 13/02 A//// RMK SLP126 T01330022
CON,1965-08-29 18:00,KCON 291800Z 29015KT 15SM BKN/// 16/07 A//// RMK SLP116 T01560067
CON,1965-08-29 21:00,KCON 292100Z 31022KT 2SM TSRA OVC/// 12/08 A//// RMK SLP121 P0016 T01170083
CON,1965-08-30 00:00,KCON 300000Z 29008KT 15SM CLR 08/02 A//// RMK SLP152 T00830022
CON,1965-08-30 03:00,KCON 300300Z 06004KT 10SM CLR 04/02 A//// RMK SLP165 T00390017
CON,1965-08-30 06:00,KCON 300600Z 21005KT 10SM CLR 04/02 A//// RMK SLP175 T00390017
CON,1965-08-30 09:00,KCON 300900Z 09004KT 10SM CLR 01/M01 A//// RMK SLP175 T00061011
CON,1965-08-30 12:00,KCON 301200Z 24008KT 15SM SCT/// 07/02 A//// RMK SLP179 T00720017
CON,1965-08-30 15:00,KCON 301500Z 32018KT 15SM BKN/// 12/02 A//// RMK SLP189 T01220017
CON,1965-08-30 18:00,KCON 301800Z 31017KT 15SM SCT/// 15/00 A//// RMK SLP182 T01500000
CON,1965-08-30 21:00,KCON 302100Z 34012KT 15SM CLR 16/01 A//// RMK SLP193 T01560006
CON,1965-08-31 00:00,KCON 310000Z 04004KT 15SM FEW/// 12/00 A//// RMK SLP212 T01170000
CON,1965-08-31 03:00,KCON 310300Z 30003KT 15SM CLR 05/02 A//// RMK SLP231 T00500022
CON,1965-08-31 06:00,KCON 310600Z 00000KT 15SM CLR 01/M01 A//// RMK SLP251 T00061011
CON,1965-08-31 09:00,KCON 310900Z 00000KT 10SM OVC/// M01/M02 A//// RMK SLP258 T10111022
CON,1965-08-31 12:00,KCON 311200Z 00000KT 3SM FG OVC/// BKN/// 02/02 A//// RMK SLP272 T00220017
CON,1965-08-31 15:00,KCON 311500Z 18003KT 15SM OVC/// 14/05 A//// RMK SLP263 T01390050
CON,1965-08-31 18:00,KCON 311800Z 18008KT 15SM SCT/// OVC/// 16/03 A//// RMK SLP259 T01610033
CON,1965-08-31 21:00,KCON 312100Z 18008KT 15SM -SHRA BKN/// OVC/// 15/05 A//// RMK SLP249 T01500050

 

We had 39 on 8/31/65 in NNJ.  Only 7° above freezing but the kids on the swim club still had to be at the beach ready to practice by 7 AM.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was it last year when we had that ridiculous airmass to the north in August? Could’ve been 2018...can’t remember exactly. But there was accumulating snow in Quebec with it. I think parts of Maine had a freeze. 

Estcourt Station went below freezing in July of 17.

image.png

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was it last year when we had that ridiculous airmass to the north in August? Could’ve been 2018...can’t remember exactly. But there was accumulating snow in Quebec with it. I think parts of Maine had a freeze. 

Wouldn't surprise me...  We've been getting the Kelvin-Hemholtz wave folding at continental scales... favoring cold plumes plumbing S into the counter rotation of the synoptic "tuck" earlier and earlier... It's the same thing on the way out in spring, too, and why we've been getting cold april and mays. 

I'm surprised we haven't repeat '77 but it may just be a matter of time ?

But as far as August, just look at the GGEM from 12z ...It's doing it already... that D10 look is winter, period... It runs our side of the world through a mammoth -AAM subtropical ridge look ... with an upside down pressure pattern - high over Maine - no heat because of east flow everywhere. Hypsometric anomaly with no lower tropospheric warm is another reason why we've been above average ..but never winning the global race in the warming stuff..different discussion ... Anyway, by D10 it like suddenly folds everything over and ends up with an 850 mb 0C plume within a meteorological stone's through of Lake Superior.  D7's synopsis does not connote D10 is going to situate that way but it gets there almost sneakily .. The models do this at times, their extended ranges will tend to reflect what has been happening at seasonal scales  - so there's probably some causal linkage between the virtual and the verification there.  It's getting to two solid months past the solstice and autumn is already walking up the driveway at 70 N so ...

Anyway, my seasonal forecast is for early cold and a snow threat or two from mid October to early December...followed by the compression of the geopotential medium and the gradient speeding up exotically everywhere and then winter's ruined until the flow relaxes next March and we get a couple spring threats or May packing pellet cold snaps... Rinse and repeat... until mid century, when and where winters as we know them at our latitude are a thing of that past - welcome to VA

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was it last year when we had that ridiculous airmass to the north in August? Could’ve been 2018...can’t remember exactly. But there was accumulating snow in Quebec with it. I think parts of Maine had a freeze. 

Anyone else concerned about Will not being able to remember the exact date of a weather event?

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4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Snow at First Lake in August.

image.png

I was on the Cog headed up Mt Washington in August  65 when a snow squall hit and they sent us back down. We were vacationing in Maine in an unheated cabin that was cold as hell. I can recall that morning waking up like yesterday.  Teeth chattering cold.

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49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was on the Cog headed up Mt Washington in August  65 when a snow squall hit and they sent us back down. We were vacationing in Maine in an unheated cabin that was cold as hell. I can recall that morning waking up like yesterday.  Teeth chattering cold.

That's awesome, Steve. I love weather stories like this, so let me return a short anecdote in kind. Back in the '30s, John Nicholas Brown II built a house on Fishers Island called "Windshield." It was an extremely modern structure, a passion project for Mr. Brown with lots of glass and gadgets, and was several years in planning and construction. It was finally finished in the summer of '38. The family was extremely wealthy and had a lot of help, including a trained English butler. The story goes that a few weeks after they moved in, the hurricane struck. That afternoon, the butler came into living room and announced very nonchalantly, almost casually, to Mrs. Brown, "Tea is served, madame, and, oh yes, the roof is blowing off." And blow off it did. The house was destroyed weeks after being finished.

windshield.jpg

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