August 2020 Discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

We're installing next week, great if you have pets, picked up the materials sat

Nice.  We only have 2 Bedrooms in our house with carpet.  The spare room  and our daughters.  Every other space in the house has either hardwood, tile, or LVT

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The N greens upslope machine is about the last area that sees 1-2 surprises a year 

Yeah hard to get big surprises now. E MA/RI/SE CT had a good one on 1/30/18....weak 2-3" event forecasted and they got blitzed with 6-8". Thats prob the last good one i cant think of off top of my head in SNE.

You could maybe fit Dec 1-3 last year into that in parts of SNE....nobody expect nearly 2 feet out just east of BAF/CEF....clocked with firehose overnight I remember.

[Modfan2]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hard to get big surprises now. E MA/RI/SE CT had a good one on 1/30/18....weak 2-3" event forecasted and they got blitzed with 6-8". Thats prob the last good one i cant think of off top of my head in SNE.

You could maybe fit Dec 1-3 last year into that in parts of SNE....nobody expect nearly 2 feet out just east of BAF/CEF....clocked with firehose overnight I remember.

Wasn’t there a storm in the 11-14 range and we were forecasted to get 7” and I woke up to 20+? I remember waking up at 2am to 7” and it then  Snowed 3-4” an hour until like 7am

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Wasn’t there a storm in the 11-14 range and we were forecasted to get 7” and I woke up to 20+? I remember waking up at 2am to 7” and it then  Snowed 3-4” an hour until like 7am

That was the March 2013 "fire hose" storm. March 7-8, 2013....yeah, I ended up with almost 23" in that in ORH on a forecast of 4-8" or 8-12" dependng on who you looked at. NWS BOX was more aggressive than the TV mets on that one.

[PhineasC]

Storms that overperform are one thing. I was thinking about storms that are forecast to miss wide right but instead you wake up to storm warnings.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Storms that overperform are one thing. I was thinking about storms that are forecast to miss wide right but instead you wake up to storm warnings.

Yeah really hard to get that sort of bust now.  Especially with models running 4 times a day.  I guess maybe on the western side of a nor’easter you may think you are getting dim sun and end up in some mid-level magic band with hastily issued Winter Storm Warnings for another block of counties to the west.

But the true “Didn’t know it was coming and then bam big storm!” is probably gone thanks to modern modeling.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Storms that overperform are one thing. I was thinking about storms that are forecast to miss wide right but instead you wake up to storm warnings.

March 01 was a nice late hail mary for my area. Of course Jan 2000 was a good one for the northeast. Boxing Day 2011 was a nice surprise when the euro finally caved to the other models. But yeah, it's tough to be expecting near zilch and then get warning amounts from a synoptic event today. There basically needs to be a mesoscale bust...something like BTV had years ago with 30"+.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

March 01 was a nice late hail mary for my area. Of course Jan 2000 was a good one for the northeast. Boxing Day 2011 was a nice surprise when the euro finally caved to the other models. But yeah, it's tough to be expecting near zilch and then get warning amounts from a synoptic event today. There basically needs to be a mesoscale bust...something like BTV had years ago with 30"+.

Even that event though was expected to be big nearby in the mountains...retrograding low and spinning moisture back southwestward.  Of course the crazy terrain blocking put the band of snow out in the Champlain Valley but that event was still within a larger synoptic background with high POPs for snowfall...just not those amounts.

That event is basically a mesoscale version of a surprise deform band that goes to town and turns a 4-8” event into 30”, which I guess is exactly what you said, lol.

Norluns are probably another sort of event that can surprise...but they are usually signaled on models, you just never know when to believe it.  But didn’t something crazy happen in Jan 2011 in SE CT with that type of mesoscale surprise?

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hard to get big surprises now. E MA/RI/SE CT had a good one on 1/30/18....weak 2-3" event forecasted and they got blitzed with 6-8". Thats prob the last good one i cant think of off top of my head in SNE.

You could maybe fit Dec 1-3 last year into that in parts of SNE....nobody expect nearly 2 feet out just east of BAF/CEF....clocked with firehose overnight I remember.

The days of mets predicting 2-4 at 11 and waking up to 18+ are over, kind of miss those days, there was always hope.

[dryslot]

If were going to have bust, At least make them all positives.............

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

March 01 was a nice late hail mary for my area. Of course Jan 2000 was a good one for the northeast. Boxing Day 2011 was a nice surprise when the euro finally caved to the other models. But yeah, it's tough to be expecting near zilch and then get warning amounts from a synoptic event today. There basically needs to be a mesoscale bust...something like BTV had years ago with 30"+.

1/27/11 was almost a whiff for SNE and some areas were in the 1-2" forecast zone which had to be rapidly changed to warning criteria.

[ma blizzard]

wasn’t the forecast for 12/97 to be 2”-4”? ended up being 18”-24” in 6-8 hours in a decent area

[Ginx snewx]

The bad busts happen every year though, lol.  8 to 16 become dustings in 4 hours

[ORH_wxman]

58 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

wasn’t the forecast for 12/97 to be 2”-4”? ended up being 18”-24” in 6-8 hours in a decent area

Yes.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

The days of mets predicting 2-4 at 11 and waking up to 18+ are over, kind of miss those days, there was always hope.

It was 38 years ago that we watched and read about NYC to BOX getting a freak April blizzard, then went to bed after seeing the CAR forecast for windy 20s and flurries, that last added only late in the evening.  By 2 AM we had S+ and CAR wound up with 26.3".  Only 17 at my place, a wild guess in the 50+ gusts (27" at the stake pre-storm, 25" after but 6' drifts a few yards away on either side) but the most impactful snowstorm of my 10 years in northern Maine though only 5th biggest snowfall.

Of course, the VD massacre of 2015 is the other kind - blizzard warnings for 18-24, lowered to 12-18 by the afternoon shift and verifying at 1.5".

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

It was 38 years ago that we watched and read about NYC to BOX getting a freak April blizzard, then went to bed after seeing the CAR forecast for windy 20s and flurries, that last added only late in the evening.  By 2 AM we had S+ and CAR wound up with 26.3".  Only 17 at my place, a wild guess in the 50+ gusts (27" at the stake pre-storm, 25" after but 6' drifts a few yards away on either side) but the most impactful snowstorm of my 10 years in northern Maine though only 5th biggest snowfall.

Of course, the VD massacre of 2015 is the other kind - blizzard warnings for 18-24, lowered to 12-18 by the afternoon shift and verifying at 1.5".

Some networks backed down to like 3-5" for BOS the night prior to VD 2015. They finished with 16". That storm was a disaster on the model guidance in terms of QPF....it actually did pretty well on most of the mid-level features. We often call that storm the "Mid-level Magic Storm" because I remember we remained very bullish on that one given the non-QPF parameters. Harvey Leonard stuck to his guns pretty well in that one too despite models reducing QPF almost every run the final 24-36 hours and shoving it all up in Maine on a weird-looking WCB type frontal setup....which is what prompted the big forecasts there.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was the March 2013 "fire hose" storm. March 7-8, 2013....yeah, I ended up with almost 23" in that in ORH on a forecast of 4-8" or 8-12" dependng on who you looked at. NWS BOX was more aggressive than the TV mets on that one.

Don’t forget I was pretty much in the “washed away” zone from Pete B. My location now had 2’. 

[powderfreak]

Every great summer thread ends with a few pages of winter memories.  I love it.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Every great summer thread ends with a few pages of winter memories.  I love it.

And our winter thread will be loaded with Tip’s posts about warming bum cheeks in cars and driveways getting harder to accumulate snow, if winter sucks come Feb.

[CoastalWx]

This was a good summer even with COVID. Given how the Fall looks thanks to COVID, I don’t want it to end. 

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some networks backed down to like 3-5" for BOS the night prior to VD 2015. They finished with 16". That storm was a disaster on the model guidance in terms of QPF....it actually did pretty well on most of the mid-level features. We often call that storm the "Mid-level Magic Storm" because I remember we remained very bullish on that one given the non-QPF parameters. Harvey Leonard stuck to his guns pretty well in that one too despite models reducing QPF almost every run the final 24-36 hours and shoving it all up in Maine on a weird-looking WCB type frontal setup....which is what prompted the big forecasts there.

York County locations had up to 21" and Machias 25", so those big Maine forecasts verified in a few places.  Had 125% of average snowfall that winter, but for "woulda-coulda" frustration it ranks behind only 2009-10 since we came to Maine in 1973. 

[HimoorWx]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t forget I was pretty much in the “washed away” zone from Pete B. My location now had 2’. 

Yeah, I remember getting home from work on Thursday and we already had about 3 or 4 inches . . . Pete was still going with washed away.  We ended up with two feet of washed away!

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

York County locations had up to 21" and Machias 25", so those big Maine forecasts verified in a few places.  Had 125% of average snowfall that winter, but for "woulda-coulda" frustration it ranks behind only 2009-10 since we came to Maine in 1973. 

Yeah the big amounts in Maine were all confined to the immediate coast enhanced by a CF. The larger synoptic snows were a bust...except once you got way out east in DE Maine. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yore is official.. everywhere .. for everyone. Iron clad 

 

[dendrite]

Not a record for CON unless you discount the 1800s.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Boston was 16th?   That seems odd

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Boston was 16th?   That seems odd

That sensor 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That sensor 

Ahh.  That would do it. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ahh.  That would do it. 

They still wouldn’t have broken the record i don’t think but I agree their sensor seems to be running about a degree too cold or slightly less than that. They probably are around #3 or #4 in reality. 

[mreaves]

9 hours ago, dryslot said:

The stuff I got can even go into the bathroom it’s waterproof, Didn’t want to go with tile in the bathroom because it’s cold

Radiant floor heating is awesome with tile. That’s what we put in the mud room/laundry room/bathroom addition we did a few years ago. Should have done it in our old bathroom too.