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August 2020 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 averages) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(please note I may be off the internet for some fairly long portions of August, if contest not being promptly maintained in the usual way, I shall return ... )

Just in case here's an early placeholder forecast: 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.5 __ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.0

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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On 7/27/2020 at 11:32 AM, Roger Smith said:

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 averages) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(please note I may be off the internet for some fairly long portions of August, if contest not being promptly maintained in the usual way, I shall return ... )

Just in case here's an early placeholder forecast: 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.5 __ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.0

DCA +2.5

NYC +2.75

BOS  +3

ORD +2

ATL +2.5

IAH +1.5

DEN +1

PHX +1

SEA + .5

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Scotty Lightning

Scotty Lightning

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19 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Tried to alert Scotty Lightning but his account does not accept PMs, and he only seems to come into the forum to enter this contest (very few posts otherwise). Calling Dr Lightning to the operating theater. 

July is fully scored and updated. Quite a good contest going on above me. ;)

My account doesn't accept PMs? That's weird....

EDIT: apparently there's a limit of just 75 messages allowed in the inbox; I had 76.  I just deleted old messages(and I mean OLD....haha). 

 

I've been working seven days a week for the past few weeks so I've been extremely busy. 

 

I will take the penalty.

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

1.5    1.0      1.0       1.0         1.5     1.5       0.5       0.5      0.0 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for August 2020

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

RJay __________________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+1.5 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

Brian5671 ____________________ +2.5 _+2.8 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

Roger Smith __________________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.0

Jakkelwx _____________________ +2.3 _+2.8 _+2.7 __ +2.4 _+3.1 _+3.2 ___ +0.4 _+1.1 _--0.8

wxallannj _____________________ +2.3 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___ +0.4 _+2.1 _+0.1

hudsonvalley21 _______________+2.1 _+2.4 _+2.3 __ +1.8 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___ +0.1 _+1.3 _+0.3

___ Consensus ________________+2.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+0.2

BKViking _____________________ +2.1 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +0.8 _+1.3 _+1.0 ___ +1.1 _+1.8 _+0.3

wxdude64 ____________________ +1.8 _+1.2 _+2.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+0.1 ___ --0.3 _+2.3 _--0.3

Tom __________________________+1.6 _+1.5 _+1.9 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.2 _--0.2

DonSutherland1 ______________ +1.5 _+1.7 _+1.6 __ +0.2 _+0.3 _+0.3 ____ 0.0 _+2.0 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning ______________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0

RodneyS _____________________ +0.9 _+1.3 _+2.2 __ +0.9 __0.0 _--0.4 ___ +1.5 _+2.7 _+0.3

 

Normal ________________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

------------------------------------------------------------

Note: forecasts color coded to show highest and lowest. Normal is lower than all forecasts

for all locations except ATL (tied) and IAH, DEN and SEA (one or more forecasts below 0.0).

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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First look at anomalies and projections ...

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

9th ____ (8d) ___________+1.8 _ +1.6 _ +2.9 _ --1.2 _ +1.8 _ --0.1 _ +2.4 _ +5.5 _ +1.2

16th __ (15d) __________ +2.1 _ +2.7 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +1.5 _ +2.9 _ +6.0 _ +0.9

23rd __ (22d) __________ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +4.5 _ +5.7 _ +2.4

30th __ (29d) __________ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +4.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +4.9 _ +6.1 _ +2.1

 

9th __ (p15d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ --0.3 _ +2.5 _ +5.0 _ +1.5

16th __ (p22d) _________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.5

 

9th __ (p25d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.0

16th __ (p31d) _________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 _ +1.0

23rd __ (p31d) _________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0*_ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0

30th __ (p31d) _________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0

 1st __ (31d anom) _____ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +4.4_ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +4.5_ +5.5 _ +1.8

 

__ Seasonal Max to date ___ 99 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 97 __ 96 __102 ____100 _ 118 __ 98

 

_____________________

9th _ Rather subdued warmth except for the ongoing blistering heat in the west. Chicago in fact running a bit below average. The following week looks near average in many areas and continued very warm in the west. Have taken the projections for 16th-25th from assumptions of persistence as pattern looks fairly similar. No seasonal max changes so far in August, will post any that do show up (see July thread for the report on seasonal max to date). 

16th _ Little change although far west warming rapidly, 16th hit new seasonal max for SEA at 98 F. 

23rd _ Staying hot in the west, and near normal in the east, new seasonal maxes of 117 PHX, 100 DEN, 102 IAH. 

*27th _ Revised projection for ORD from +1.5 to +3.0 as currently +3.7, only slight cooling now indicated.

30th _ slight changes as we approach final validation.

1st _ Final anomalies were posted overnight and scoring is updated. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for August 2020

Scoring is based on the latest update above showing confirmed end of month anomalies.

^ PHX has been converted to max-60 scoring as it appears that the highest raw score would be around 54. The progression will be in increments of five points 5-60. No raw scores were higher than the progression scores.

 

Forecaster __________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL

 

Roger Smith _________________ 80 _ 84 _ 90 __ 254 __ 82 _ 70 _ 90 __ 242 _ 496 __ 80 _ 60^_ 96__ 236 ___ 732

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 88 _ 86 _ 94 __ 268 __ 48 _ 98 _ 98 __ 244 _ 512 __ 12 _ 30^_ 70 __ 112 ___ 624

Tom _________________________ 98 _ 96 _ 98 __ 292 __ 34 _ 98 _ 84 __ 216 _ 508 __ 28 _ 25^_ 60 __ 113 ___ 621

BKViking _____________________88 _ 98 _ 92 __ 278 __ 28 _ 96 _ 80 __ 204 _ 482 __ 32 _ 35^_ 70 __ 137 ___ 619

___ Consensus _______________ 88 _ 94 _ 96 __ 278 __ 34 _100_ 84 __218 _ 496 __ 20 _ 33^_ 68 __ 121 ___ 617

wxallannj ____________________ 84 _ 92 _ 96 __ 272 __ 20 _ 94 _ 82 __ 196 _ 468 __ 18 _ 45^_ 66 __ 129 ___ 597

RodneyS _____________________ 88 _ 92 _ 96 __ 276 __ 30 _ 70 _ 52 __ 152 _ 428 __ 40 _ 55^_ 70 __ 165 ___ 593

DonSutherland1 _____________100 _100 _92 __ 292 __16 _ 76 _ 66 __ 158 _ 450 __ 10 _ 40^_ 84 __ 134 ___ 584

Brian5671 ___________________ 80 _ 78 _ 80 __ 238 __ 52 _ 80 _ 90 __ 222 _ 460 __ 30 _ 15^_ 74 __ 119 ___ 579

Scotty Lightning _____________100 _ 86 _ 80 __ 266 __ 32 _100_ 90__ 222 _ 488 __ 20 _ 05^_ 64 __ 089 ___ 577

wxdude64 ___________________ 94 _ 90 _ 98 __ 282 __ 22 _ 78 _ 62 __ 162 _ 444 __ 04 _ 50^_ 58 __ 112 ___ 556

RJay _________________________70 _ 74 _ 80 __ 224 __ 52 _100_ 60__ 212 _ 436 __ 20 _ 15^_ 74 __ 109 ___ 545

Jakkelwx ____________________ 84 _ 78 _ 86 __ 248 __ 60 _ 68 _ 76 __ 204 _ 452 __ 18 _ 20^_ 48 __ 086 ___ 538

Normal _______________________70 _ 66 _ 60 __ 196__ 12 _ 70 _ 60 __ 142 _ 338 __ 10 _ 00 _ 64 __ 074 ___ 412

======================================================

Extreme forecast report

At this point, five forecasts qualify, one for coldest and four for warmest. 

DCA ended up as a loss for RodneyS with coldest forecast +0.9 and wins for DonS, Scotty L(+1.5).

ORD, DEN, PHX and SEA go to Roger Smith with warmest forecasts, in three cases below the actual values.

 

The other four locations have fallen close to our consensus forecasts.

------------------------------------------------------------

The updated annual scoring summary will follow ...

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Aug) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________588_ 564_622 __1774 __497 _483_508__1488 __3262 __590_515_484_ 1589 ____4851

 

Don Sutherland.1 ___________532 _560_564 __1656 __449 _524_540 __1513 __3169 __386_486_516_ 1388 ____4557

hudsonvalley21 ____________487 _508 _581 __1576 __392 _508 _553 __1453 __3029 __435_558_503_ 1496 ____4525

RJay _______________________554 _565_513 __1632 __417 _520 _511 __1448 __3080 __480_450_504_ 1434 ____4514

___ Consensus _____________474 _482 _585 __1541__374 _497_560 __1431 __2972 __438_545_506_ 1489 ____ 4461

wxallannj __________________494 _534 _573 __1601 __340 _495 _556 __1391 __2992 __424_515_498_ 1437 ____4429

BKViking __________________ 442 _466 _537 __1445 __415 _434 _530__1379 __2824 __455_547_537_ 1539 ____ 4363

Tom _______________________ 476 _476 _546 __1498__308 _546 _515__1369 __2867 __425_543_495_ 1463 ____4330

 

Brian5671 _________________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485_545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313

 

Scotty Lightning ____________368 _338 _440 __1146 __314 _487_596__1397 __2543 __368_530_566_ 1464 ____ 4007

 

wxdude64 __________________397 _385 _444 __1226__304 _436 _542__1282 __2508 __ 416_517_392_ 1325 ____3833

Roger Smith ________________378 _385 _484 __1247__320 _509_462__1291 __2538 __ 450_352_386_ 1188 ____3726

___ Normal _________________272 _268 _356 __ 896 __236 _436 _464__1136 __2032 __310_442_ 526_ 1278 ____3310

JakkelWx _ (6/8) ___________ 304 _299 _422 __1025__310 _309 _452__1081 __2106 __314 _332 _286__932 ____3038

yoda _ (2/8) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 ___ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686

rclab _ (1/8) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 ____ 040 __ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/8) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 ____ 242 __ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/8) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 ____ 066 __ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Rhino16 _ (1/8) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 ____ 068 __ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings January to July

54 of 72 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 38 for warmest and 16 for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug __ Standings to date

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __11-2

Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 __10-2

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 __ 9-3

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 __ 8-0

RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- ___7-0

Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 ___4-0

Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- ___ 4-1

Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 2-0

RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 ___ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- ___ 1-0

yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 1-0

wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 1-0

Jakkelwx _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ___ 1-0

wxallannj _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- ___ 1-1

================================================================================

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to August

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. 

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 3 _ Jan, Feb, May

DonSutherland.1 ____________1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr

hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul

___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

Tom ________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0

Scotty Lightning ____________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0

wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 1 __ Aug

_____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr

Jakkelwx ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Update on Four Seasons contest

This contest tracks your seasonal performances. Ten points are awarded to top total score in each season,

then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 points for 2nd-7th, and 1 point for anyone else who enters all three contests. This table

shows the points awarded in the winter and spring segments, followed by total points for June, July and

August, and the points generated. The table order is total points for the contest. 

 

FORECASTER __________ Winter, spring pts ____ Summer totals __ Summer pts ___ TOTAL POINTS

RodneyS ____________________ 10 _____ 6 _______ 1873 ____________ 4 _____________ 20

DonSutherland 1 ______________5 ____ 10 _______ 1846 ____________ 2  ____________ 17

hudsonvalley21 _______________4 _____ 7 _______ 1901 _____________6 ____________ 17

RJay _________________________ 1 _____ 5_______ 1935 _____________10 ____________16

______ Consensus ____________ 5 _____ 5 _______ 1912 _____________ 6 ____________ 16

BKViking _____________________ 6 _____ 2_______ 1916 _____________ 7 ____________ 15

wxallannj _____________________7 _____ 3 ________1858 _____________3 ____________ 13

Tom __________________________3 _____ 4_______ 1882 _____________ 5 ____________ 12

Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 _____ 1_______ 1820 _____________ 1 _____________ 4

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 _____ 1_______ 1721 _____________ 1 _____________ 3

Roger Smith __________________ 1 ______1 ______ 1799 _____________ 1 _____________ 3

Brian5671 ____________________ 1 ______1______ 1808 _____________ 1 ______________3

_________ Normal _____________ 1 ______ 1______ 1352 ______________1 _____________ 3

Jakkelwx _____________________-- ______ -- ______ 1797 _____________1 ______________1

_________________________________________________________

The summer scoring was fairly close compared to other seasons, congrats to RJay for top score, and the annual contest now looks fairly competitive.

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