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Big time heat focused in sne Sunday-Tuesday to close out July


weathafella
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Looking at everyone’s records...this last week of July is pretty weak for record highs. There’s a lot of 95-97s in the torch spots with a few a degree or two higher depending on the site. Today’s 95° for BDL is the lowest record high for July. So the next 3 days should be a lot of records evenif we “only” manage mid to upper 90s.

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13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wut?  Forecast here was 3-4F lower then actual, so heat over-performed for today. Tomorrow was always the peak heat day.

You stood out but most of us didn’t.  BDL I think was as progged but BOS/ORH underachieved.

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wut?  Forecast here was 3-4F lower then actual, so heat over-performed for today. Tomorrow was always the peak heat day.

Seems like southern areas did ok vs expectations.

Barely got to 90F here though. I was never overly impressed with the 850 temps today though. They were hovering below 20C most of today. 

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MOS is still kinda meh for the next 2 days in the hot spots. I keep waiting for them to bump up, but not yet. I still say the numbers are a bit low.

BDL 69/96 74/90
BOS 76/98 76/93
ORH 70/92 72/88
TAN 69/97 71/93
ASH 72/98 74/92
BTV 75/89 72/85
OWD 70/98 72/93
FIT 71/97 75/93
PVD 71/96 73/91
IJD 67/95 72/90
MWN 55/63 54/62

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Hottest June ever at the picnic tables on Mansfield...and July will be hottest ever for BTV and Mansfield.  

Will BDL get into those categories?

NNE crushing BDL for the first half of summer really made him insecure.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NNE crushing BDL for the first half of summer really made him insecure.

I know he’s just baiting, but I still don’t know if the historical significance will get there in his neck of the woods.

If BDL is hottest July ever then we can talk.  Back to back hottest months in the bag at the Mansfield COOP.  BTV has joined the party, too.

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55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like southern areas did ok vs expectations.

Barely got to 90F here though. I was never overly impressed with the 850 temps today though. They were hovering below 20C most of today. 

Standard adiabat from 850 mb gets 16C to 90 at the sfc... typically. May have to slope the 2-meter a little, which typically happens when the amosphere isn't cheating like today... I've seen 95 on 17C due to deeper mixing.

It was little underdone for the 850s ... if those 19's were right... 

Seems like today slightly under performed relative to modeling/that mixing depth.   It's weird - this is the third time where 17 .. 18+C 'undered' this year.  Not sure if it's high cloud timing or wind direction or pixie magic but it's been an oddity.  Maybe the boundary layer wasn't that tall.. But 925 mb was like 24 C ...so, hm

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Standard adiabat from 850 mb gets 16C to 90 at the sfc... typically. May have the slope the 2-meter which typically happens when the amosphere isn't cheating like today... I've seen 95 on 17C due to deeper mixing.

It was little underdone for the 850s ... if those 19's were right... 

Seems like today slightly under performed relative to modeling/that mixing depth.   It's weird - this is the third time were 17 .. 18+C 'undered' this year.  Not sure if it's high cloud timing or wind direction or pixie magic but it's been an oddity.  Maybe the boundary layer wasn't that tall.. But 925 mb was like 24 C ...so, hm

We usually need really good boundary conditions to perform high end heat (like widespread 95+) with 850s in the 18-19C range. It can happen of course but today seemed like it was fighting all day. Prob didn’t help that we started the day more like 15-16C according to the CHH/ALB raobs. Tomorrow will have a better initial starting point. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We usually need really good boundary conditions to perform high end heat (like widespread 95+) with 850s in the 18-19C range. It can happen of course but today seemed like it was fighting all day. Prob didn’t help that we started the day more like 15-16C according to the CHH/ALB raobs. Tomorrow will have a better initial starting point. 

But it's been doing that a bit often this summer...  Any excuse imagined to go two ticks under and it does... And I'm not talking about MOS ..or machine interpolations. I'm talking looking at that raw grid - it was 19 C in the models by 4pm... I dunno maybe it cooled in the now-cast

I almost wonder if the cleaner air/lower particulate ozone that's empirically measured since Industry et al slowed down might have something to do with hypsometric collapse - I mean, it doesn't take a lot to cough up a 2 F  ...probably not that much energy diffusion physics for 4 either...  Just a supposition -

 

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55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Standard adiabat from 850 mb gets 16C to 90 at the sfc... typically. May have to slope the 2-meter a little, which typically happens when the amosphere isn't cheating like today... I've seen 95 on 17C due to deeper mixing.

It was little underdone for the 850s ... if those 19's were right... 

Seems like today slightly under performed relative to modeling/that mixing depth.   It's weird - this is the third time where 17 .. 18+C 'undered' this year.  Not sure if it's high cloud timing or wind direction or pixie magic but it's been an oddity.  Maybe the boundary layer wasn't that tall.. But 925 mb was like 24 C ...so, hm

How do dew points and surface moisture affect that?  Are the 17-18C days “undered” but surface moisture is a bit more than modeled?

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