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Tuesday, July 28, 2020 Convective Potential


weatherwiz
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On 7/24/2020 at 8:06 AM, SJonesWX said:

stop starting these threads a week in advance and maybe you can make a better prediction than “maybe”.

 

On 7/24/2020 at 8:20 AM, weatherwiz said:

It's not a "maybe"...it's weather...there is never any guarantee. In the case of convective forecasting (which is where my biggest strength is in forecasting), I love to start sniffing events up to 7-days out. There is no better way to learn more about weather than to spend time tracking potential through models and then watching everything unfold in real time. About 7-days out if I see any type of synoptic support for convection I'm intrigued and I will follow everyday. 

how’d this one work out for ya?

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8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

 

how’d this one work out for ya?

Well since you seem to lack the ability to read...or perhaps it's just a lack of reading comprehension, I'll break it down for you on a first grade reading level.

On 7/24/2020 at 7:58 AM, weatherwiz said:

A cold front is set to move through the region sometime Tuesday.

Yup

Ahead of the cold front it will be rather hot and humid with temperatures ranging from the mid-to-upper 80's to the mid 90's and dewpoints into the 70's. Not a single person will be walking around without toilet paper stuck to them.

Was quite hot and certainly humid

Anyways, this isn't a big severe threat...I don't think anyways, but the one thing that interests me is a seasonably strong mid-level jet associated with a large-scale trough digging through the Great Lakes and through New England. The best shear may lag the front but these details can be ironed out as we get closer.

Played out beautifully. Wasn't a big severe threat, had a seasonably strong mid-level jet associated with  large-scale trough, but the best shear did lag the front.

Anyways, as it stands right now the potential should arise for the possibility of multiple line segments which will carry the risk for damaging winds depending on how this scenario unfolds.

We did see several (short) line-segments and judging by the wording in the few warnings that were issued yesterday, they did carry a risk for damaging winds.

One thing I would like to see is a much stronger shortwave as the main shortwave energy is north into Canada...but forcing from the front, modest shear, and ample CAPE should suffice for some t'storms/severe threat.

We did see some t'storms and yes there was some severe threat as even suggested by the SPC and the few warnings. 

It's not my fault some of you don't seem to have the brain capacity to understand convection and how it works or operates and seem to think that every time a convection threat is mentioned it means a large-scale outbreak with widespread convection. 

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In the past I believe we've had a general convection thread and and then highlighted a threat for a specific date when the situation warranted, which is somewhat subjective unless there are specific guidelines or parameters in place.  In general when you highlight a day and its potential there is increased expectation.  My thought is to  have a general convection thread that covers more general non-severe convection or projections that are beyond 3 days, and perhaps have a specific date thread  within the three days and/ or when SPC has placed us in the slight risk category.  Just my two cents and I do appreciate Wiz's analysis.  

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Well since you seem to lack the ability to read...or perhaps it's just a lack of reading comprehension, I'll break it down for you on a first grade reading level.

It's not my fault some of you don't seem to have the brain capacity to understand convection and how it works or operates and seem to think that every time a convection threat is mentioned it means a large-scale outbreak with widespread convection. 

 

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